December 2020 archive

A Friday Evening Note On The Christmas Eve Arctic Front…

You’d be hard pressed to find one single day where there’s more interest and speculation on the weather than Christmas Day. Many (self included) dream of scenes like this every Christmas:

An arctic front will put many in the game (including deep into the South) for the opportunity of snow (or Christmas Eve snow) on the big day, itself. As energy rounds the base of a deepening trough, a wave of low pressure will develop along the pressing arctic boundary.

We expect the front to blow through our neck of the woods late Wednesday night and early Christmas Eve morning. A period of precipitation will likely accompany the front. We expect rain to develop Wednesday night before mixing with and changing to snow early Christmas Eve morning.

Heavier snow is anticipated across the interior portion of the Northeast down the spine of the Appalachians Christmas Eve into Christmas Day as the wave of low pressure becomes better organized. The pattern is simply too progressive to allow for a big event this far west.

Trailing upper level energy could spark scattered snow showers back this way, but we believe between the 2 opportunities for that magical Christmas snow, only minimal accumulations can be expected here across central Indiana (“ridiculously” early call is for a dusting to perhaps 2″ type event). Further northeast, lake effect snow will likely add up to several inches across the northeastern IN snow belts.

Bitterly cold, arctic, air will pour into the region Christmas Eve and Christmas Day along with gusty northwesterly winds. We still anticipate below zero wind chill values (0° to – 10° Christmas morning).

A blocky pattern looks to remain in place as we close the year and open up 2021. As such, active times will continue for the foreseeable future…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/12/18/a-friday-evening-note-on-the-christmas-eve-arctic-front/

VIDEO: All Eyes On Christmas…

A couple of weak systems will scoot through the region beforehand, but a strong arctic cold front has it’s eyes set on the region by Christmas Eve…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/12/18/video-all-eyes-on-christmas/

Long Range Update: Does The Active Pattern Hold Into Early January?

The MJO is set to remain in the “null” phase through the end of the year.

This means we’ll continue to lean on the teleconnections to drive the pattern over the next few weeks.

For the most part, these teleconnection signals remain clustered in a manner that favors a predominantly chilly pattern to close out the year. (Not to say we won’t have a day or two thrown in with milder southwesterly winds).

The period where there’s greatest alignment for cold is centered on Christmas. Not surprisingly, we have an arctic blast dialed up for the big holiday (including highs that might not make it out of the 10s). Thereafter (from top to bottom), the AO remains negative, the EPO trends back to neutral to positive, the NAO trends neutral before heading back slightly negative, and the PNA goes back neutral.

Note the buckling of the jet and associated arctic air intrusion for Christmas.

With the negative AO and trending negative NAO, I’d look for another attempt of an eastern trough just prior or around the New Year.

While our short-term products will focus more on the Christmas storm, the current idea is for more of a progressive system (rain to snow with minimal accumulation Christmas Eve) preceding the arctic blast. We still expect wind chills to fall below zero Christmas morning.

Note the ensemble data continues to show a reflection of a trough across our neck of the woods as we close the year and open up 2021. One also has to like the positives over Canada (at least if you’re a fan of being on the playing field for the possibility of additional wintry events during this time). I’m also intrigued by the north Atlantic ridge as that can lead to eastern storminess and an overall “chaotic” pattern.

Further ahead, our updated Weekly products are bullish on warmth (relative to average) to open up January.

I would caution buying into the “torch” forecast off the long range data above. This is for a couple of reasons: the teleconnection phases and expected neutral MJO. Furthermore, what’s more likely here is that the modeling is either jumping on the warmth in Canada and “overwhelming” the Lower 48 with the warmth, or is way too warm in Canada. It’ll be mighty hard to pull off widespread warmth across the Lower 48 and Canada through the first couple weeks of the new year. The pattern should also continue to offer up a fairly active storm track to open up 2021.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/12/17/long-range-update-does-the-active-pattern-hold-into-early-january/

VIDEO: Weak Weekend System; Push Of Arctic Air For Christmas…

A weak system will scoot through the region this weekend and then eyes turn to the coldest air so far this season by Christmas Eve…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/12/17/video-weak-weekend-system-push-of-arctic-air-for-christmas/

VIDEO: Snowy Scene Today; Cold Air Reinforces Itself Around Christmas. What About Snow Chances?

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/12/16/video-snowy-scene-today-cold-air-reinforces-itself-around-christmas-what-about-snow-chances/

Client Brief: Now This Is More Like It (And More To Follow)…

Type: Impactful wintry weather

What: Accumulating snow

When: Late tonight & Wednesday

Temperatures: Upper 20s – lower 30s

Wind: NE 10-20 MPH early in the event, shifting to the NW and decreasing to 5-10 MPH Wednesday

Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal 

Pavement Impacts: Salting and plowing required

Summary: There’s not a lot much more to add to our client brief tonight from what we’ve been sharing since Saturday morning. This is a system that has behaved as expected throughout and will make a mess of things prior to sunrise Wednesday. While not a blockbuster event by any means, locally, a steady and persistent snow will fall through the majority of our Wednesday. Snow should pull east of the region after sunset Wednesday (5-6p west to 7-8p east). Temperatures will then fall into the middle to upper 20s Wednesday night and Thursday morning helping to allow refreezing on area roadways, and subsequent slick conditions in spots.

The pattern remains quite active into Christmas week. Our evening video package has more details around that below.

Confidence: High

Next Update: Wednesday morning

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/12/15/client-brief-now-this-is-more-like-and-more-to-follow/

VIDEO: Snow Overspreads The Region Overnight And Leads To A Slick Time Of Things Wednesday; Colder Trends Develop Christmas To New Years…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/12/15/video-snow-overspreads-the-region-overnight-and-leads-to-a-slick-time-of-things-wednesday-colder-trends-develop-christmas-to-new-years/

Client Brief: Widespread Snow Builds In Overnight Tuesday – Wednesday; Slippery Travel Expected Wednesday AM…

Type: Impactful wintry weather

What: Accumulating snow

When: Late Tuesday night & Wednesday

Temperatures: Upper 20s – lower 30s

Wind: NE 10-20 MPH early in the event, shifting to the NW and decreasing to 5-10 MPH Wednesday

Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal 

Pavement Impacts: Salting and plowing required

Summary: We don’t see any need to change our early stand on this event (originally issued Saturday morning). Data over the weekend trended away from the heavier snowfall amounts falling across our area only to have moved back to the snowy idea over the past 12-24 hours. Though while never expected to be a blockbuster event here, we always felt this was a classic setup to produce widespread accumulating snows across the region. The snow shield will lift northeast across the region overnight Tuesday into predawn Wednesday. We expect an arrival into the Indy metro and surrounding ‘burbs between 1a (southwest) and 3a (northeast). Once the snow arrives, it’ll settle in for the long haul, continuing (light to moderate intensity) for the better part of the daytime hours. Unfortunately, we fully expect slick roadways for the Wednesday morning rush. The snow will eventually end (southwest to northeast) between 3p and 7p Wednesday. We have no changes to our initial snowfall map below, first issued Saturday morning.

Confidence: High

Next Update: Tuesday morning (video package)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/12/14/client-brief-widespread-snow-builds-in-overnight-tuesday-wednesday-slippery-travel-expected-wednesday-am/

VIDEO: Light Snow Arrives Late Tuesday Night-Wednesday Morning; Tracking 2 Additional Systems Leading Up To Christmas…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/12/14/video-light-snow-arrives-late-tuesday-night-wednesday-morning-tracking-2-additional-systems-leading-up-to-christmas/

VIDEO: Pattern Drivers To Close Out 2020…

We continue to keep eyes on the 1st widespread (albeit light) accumulating snow event of the season and dive deeper into the pattern drivers to close out 2020…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/12/13/video-pattern-drivers-to-close-out-2020/

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