November 2020 archive

Client Brief: “System” Snow Transitions To Lake-Effect…

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

What: Accumulating Snow/ Wind

When: Today through Tuesday Morning

Temperatures: Upper 20s to lower 30s

Wind: NW 15-20 MPH; Gusting to 35 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Moderate, especially with late afternoon-evening lake-effect snow band.

Pavement Impacts: Salting required; plowing required within lake-effect snow band.

Summary: We’ll undergo a transition from “system” snow (mostly light) this morning into early afternoon to a more localized, but robust lake-effect snow event late afternoon and this evening. At least for central portions of the state, this is the better opportunity for accumulating snow. As temperatures continue to fall and the wind direction becomes better aligned, a band of lake effect snow is expected to develop initially across northwestern Indiana late morning. It’s this band of snow that should continue to get better organized and heavier as we move into late afternoon and the evening hours and be driven well inland. Eventually, this lake snow band should reach areas as far south as Indianapolis (and surrounding ‘burbs) by late afternoon, potentially including the 5 o’clock rush for parts of the city. Snowfall intensity within this band is expected to be heavy enough to whiten roadways and create slick spots. For most this will only last an hour or two before the band pivots east and impacts east-central Indiana for a longer period of time into the overnight and early Tuesday morning. If you find yourself under this lake effect snow band, a quick 1″ to 2″ can be expected

Confidence: High

Next Update: Tonight (video package)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/30/client-brief-system-snow-transitions-to-lake-effect/

Welcoming In Meteorological Winter…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/29/welcoming-in-meteorological-winter/

VIDEO: Latest Thoughts On Sunday Night-Monday; Busy Winter Pattern To Open December…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/28/video-latest-thoughts-on-sunday-night-monday-busy-winter-pattern-to-open-december/

Client Brief: Sunday Night – Monday System…

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

What: Accumulating Snow/ Wind

When: Sunday night and Monday

Temperatures: Low-Mid 30s

Wind: N 15-20 MPH; Gusting to 35 MPH

Blowing Drifting: Minimal to Moderate in lake enhanced zone, as well as east-central IN

Pavement Impacts: Salting required; plowing likely required in lake enhanced zone, as well as east-central IN

Summary: While not nearly as robust as what guidance earlier this week printed out, the season’s first widespread wintry event looms Sunday night into Monday. This is a byproduct of phasing between the southern and northern jet stream (initially set off by the evolving strongly positive PNA), but there are important differences in the speed of the initial vort. max being a bit more progressive that will keep this from bombing out like earlier guidance showed. Consequently, this will result in a much further east system (may still not have seen that eastward trend finish). While our forecast specifically focuses on Indiana, if you have travel plans east of here into Ohio early next week, please pay special attention to the local National Weather Service products as impacts will be greater from heavy snow and strong winds.

Locally, we anticipate precipitation overspreading central Indiana (from southwest to northeast) around, or just after, midnight Sunday night. Initially, this should be in the form of a cold rain before precipitation transitions to wet snow prior to sunrise. Moderate snow should be falling across east-central Indiana from the mid morning hours Monday into early afternoon. Additionally, by this point, a more organized band of lake-effect snow should be firing up off Lake Michigan. This is a bit of a wild card as a combination of ingredients favor a pretty robust lake snow band making it further south than typical. As the wind direction veers towards more of a northwesterly flow late Monday afternoon and evening, it’s possible this lake effect snow band pivots into the Indy metro and surrounding ‘burbs. We’ll keep a close eye on this as time draws closer. Within this snow band, heavier accumulations are possible. Snow showers will continue into Tuesday morning before diminishing.

Confidence: Medium

Next Update: Tonight (video package, including longer range update).

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/28/client-brief-sunday-night-monday-system/

VIDEO: Pattern Flips Colder Than Normal, But Can It Last Past Mid-December?

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/27/video-pattern-flips-colder-than-normal-but-can-it-last-past-mid-december/

VIDEO: Quiet Weather Builds In, Latest Thoughts On An Increasingly Wintry Pattern As We Open December…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/26/video-quiet-weather-builds-in-latest-thoughts-on-an-increasingly-wintry-pattern-as-we-open-december/

Confidence Continues To Increase On A Major Winter Storm Early Next Week…

Good morning and happy Thanksgiving! From our home to yours we want to wish you a blessed holiday! During a year where it’s been a bit more “hectic” than normal,…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/26/confidence-continues-to-increase-on-a-major-winter-storm-early-next-week/

Strong Storm Potential By Evening; More Chatter About Late Weekend-Next Week…

It’s a wet morning across central Indiana as widespread rain (some of which is moderate to heavy) is falling for most of the region. This is due to a well organized low pressure system and associated frontal boundary currently spinning across the central Plains.

As the widespread shield of rain departs late morning and into the early afternoon hours, we’ll have a “lull” in the activity until late afternoon and early evening. That’s when we anticipate storms to fire as the area of low pressure moves across the state. Should we get into any sort of sunshine later this afternoon (questionable at best), the opportunity for severe weather would increase during the 4p to 9p window (west to east). As it is, a couple of strong-to-severe storms can’t be ruled out given the dynamics in play. The biggest threat would be localized hail and/ or damaging wind gusts with these stronger cells.

Widespread 1″+ rainfall can be expected (both from this morning’s rain and what’s ahead this evening) with locally heavier amounts- especially south of the I-70 corridor.

Things will quieten down tonight and we still anticipate a much calmer Thanksgiving Day, itself, continuing through Black Friday and Saturday as high pressure settles overhead.

By this time, of course, attention will turn to the “shenanigans” ahead early next week. We have no changes to our thinking a significant event is ahead and continue to favor this initial storm tracking west of the spine of the Appalachians. Operational model will likely continue to offer up a wide range of solutions (sometimes with each model update). The item we’ll be most focused on is the phasing of the 2 streams. The timing of this taking place will play a critical role into who ends up with a sizable snow/ wind event vs. mostly rain with backlash snow. Stay tuned and know, as per usual, we’ll be posting away right through the holiday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/25/strong-storm-potential-by-evening-more-chatter-about-late-weekend-next-week/

Evening Client Video Update: Couple Of Strong Storms Tomorrow Evening? Stage Set For A Major Winter Event Sunday-Monday…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/24/evening-client-video-update-couple-of-strong-storms-tomorrow-evening-stage-set-for-a-major-winter-event-sunday-monday/

VIDEO: Strong Storm Potential Tomorrow Afternoon; In-depth December Pattern Breakdown…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/24/video-strong-storm-potential-tomorrow-afternoon-in-depth-december-pattern-breakdown/

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