We’re tracking a complex storm system to close out the year. Unlike it’s predecessor, I think central and western portions of the OHV are at an increased risk of wintry…
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From our home to yours, we wish you a very merry Christmas and a joyous holiday season!
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Right off the bat, the theme we want to drive home is that while active, the pattern ahead isn’t overly cold. Cold enough, at times, to create some wintry “fun and games?” Absolutely, but we’re not forecasting a widespread period of sustained cold over the next few weeks.
While the teleconnections favor durable cold from an AO/ NAO perspective…
…the EPO isn’t as favorable, and will likely present some warmer times in between the colder shots.
As it is, note how the blocking really matures from Week 1 to Week 2.
Undoubtedly this will force a stormy period into (at least) the first half of January. At times, initially, Great Lakes cutters are possible, but as we get closer to NYE and into the 1st week of January, itself, I think that’s the window that we really need to focus on for the potential of 1, if not 2, OHV winter storm threats.
The longer range, weekly models are trending in an interesting direction for the 1st full week of January, “marrying” the moisture with the cold, locally.
CFSv2
The JMA Weeklies are also intriguing from an upper air perspective (very similar to what the other ensemble data shows for the similar time frame).
While we’re not ready to unveil our January Outlook just yet (that will come next week), I think we’ll need to start keeping a closer eye on the MJO by the middle and latter part of the month. As things stand now, it appears we may sneak into Phase 2 to open the month (favors cold, locally) before potentially getting into a milder Phase 3 towards the end of the first week.
As things stand now, once the brief arctic intrusion gets out of here this weekend, temperatures will go into a “yo-yo” mode next week as (2) storm systems impact the area between Sunday and Wednesday. The date to keep a closer eye on for potential wintry impacts is more towards Jan. 2-4 time frame as the blocking gets into better position/ matures.
We’ll be back with a video update later today. Until then, Merry Christmas Eve from our family to yours.
A skinny line of showers/ embedded thunder pose a brief heavy rain and wind threat towards 9p-11p (west to east). We also look at fresh data for Christmas…
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The day is dawning with quiet conditions, but that all begins to change in significant fashion by evening. During the transition, strong and gusty winds (SW 45-50 MPH gusts) will…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/12/23/video-strong-arctic-front-crosses-the-state-tonight-looking-ahead-to-a-busy-close-to-2020/
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Before we touch on the post-Christmas period, I wanted to provide a quick update on the pre-Christmas arctic front. In short, we have no changes to our ongoing thoughts concerning this system.
The arctic front is still expected to arrive Wednesday night with showers that end as a “touch” of snow.
MUCH colder and windy conditions can be expected Christmas Eve with upper level energy teaming up with the pressing arctic airmass to help generate backlash snow showers and embedded squalls. These may deposit a dusting to less than 1″ for some, but others likely won’t see any accumulation. Winds will absolutely howl and combine with the falling temperatures to create bitter wind chill values Christmas Eve night into Christmas Day. We still anticipate wind chill values to fall into the 0° to 10° below zero range.
Highs Christmas Day will only top out in the lower 20s.
Then our attention will shift to the period Dec. 27th through Jan. 7th. During this time frame, I’m expecting at least a couple of storm systems to put us on the playing field for more meaningful wintry conditions.
The teleconnections will finally align in a manner more conducive for interior and east coast wintry weather (remember, we’ve been “fighting” that positive EPO as of late). A byproduct of the negative AO and NAO is high latitude blocking. Unlike our Christmas storm (photo 1 below), the blocking matures in significant fashion during the aforementioned period and should force a more favorable storm track (photo 2 below).
Once to the medium to long range (Days 9-13), the once progressive pattern is no more. Instead, we should see much slower moving storm systems that try and cut into the Ohio Valley only to be forced south. This is the type pattern that can lead to a couple of back-to-back winter weather makers of various significance, including a wintry mix of precipitation across the greater OHV region- especially if only marginally cold air is available. The other item to keep an eye on is the likely trend that develops with the operational data over time. Don’t be surprised to suddenly see guidance trend south with the ‘mean’ storm track during the 12/27 through 1/7 time period as we get closer to real time. This is all a byproduct of the blockiness. Should we get into a situation where we have a couple of winter events lay down accumulating ice and snow then don’t be surprised if the data trends away from the “seasonal” look right now towards one colder as time draws closer.
As it is, this is still a pattern that looks more active/ stormy as opposed to overly cold. With that said, as much as we were against the idea of a big pre-Christmas storm, locally, we remain as bullish as ever on the last few days of December and to open January feeding those hungry for winter weather.
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An arctic cold front will blow through here Wednesday night allowing bitterly cold air to arrive just in time for the Christmas holiday. More on this and a look ahead…
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A shot of arctic air awaits for Christmas and we look ahead to a pattern that should continue to promote fun and active times as we put a wrap on…
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