December 27, 2020 archive

12/28/20 Weather Bulletin: Dry, Chilly Weather Monday-Tuesday; Questions Abound With Our NYE Storm…

Pre-Dawn High; Sunshine Returns…Our high temperature Monday will take place right after midnight for most of central Indiana. Daytime temperatures will remain steady in the low-mid 30s for most of the region as clouds slowly give way to a return of the sunshine. This is all thanks to a cold front that slipped southeast across the state last night. (Same boundary that helped generate some light showers across the region Sunday evening).

High pressure will continue to dominate our area Tuesday, but “trouble” lurks off to the west. Clouds will begin to increase during the 2nd half of the day and a few light showers (potentially mixed with snow across northern parts of the state) will arrive on the scene late in the evening as a warm front lifts north.

Midweek will feature unsettled weather conditions, but there are more questions than answers currently and fine tuning will take place over the next 24-48 hours. Solutions currently range from mild/ wet to a mixed bag, including ice and snow. In short, stay tuned… The one constant that remains is that this will be a more significant storm for central and western portions of the OHV than our Christmas Eve event. That said, details pertaining to precipitation type/ amounts are anyone’s guess from this point.

Chilly, dry conditions will return by the weekend.

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A Word On Our New Year’s Eve Storm…

There will be great wailing and gnashing of teeth in the days ahead over the operational model changes that are sure to come with our New Year’s Eve storm. Knowing what’s to come with the operational guidance, let’s take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Below, I’ve included a couple of images of the 500mb pattern (upper level air pattern) from the GFS ensemble. The first image is dug out from the archives and features our Christmas Eve storm. The second image is the storm in front of us for New Year’s Eve.

Christmas Eve
New Year’s Eve

There are several differences, but the most notable one to us is the strength and orientation of the blocking high to our northeast. Secondly, the sharp wave break (deep trough) is not part of our NYE storm like it was Christmas Eve. While there are other ingredients in the pot to stir, these are two significant differences that lead us to believe the upcoming NYE storm will be a big-hitter for the Mid West and portions of the western OHV, as opposed to the more progressive event east of here Christmas Eve. The pattern will allow a couple of features to slow down and strengthen (amount to be determined, but perhaps significantly so) to create a more “revved up,” western storm to close out the year.

From this distance, Indianapolis and central Indiana is at least in the game for wintry fun NYE, but there will be much fine tuning ahead.

More later today! Enjoy your Sunday!

Friendly reminder I am traveling this week to see family and loved ones. Posts will come daily, but our regular schedule will be off because of this. Merry Christmas!

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