Right off the bat, the theme we want to drive home is that while active, the pattern ahead isn’t overly cold. Cold enough, at times, to create some wintry “fun and games?” Absolutely, but we’re not forecasting a widespread period of sustained cold over the next few weeks.
While the teleconnections favor durable cold from an AO/ NAO perspective…
…the EPO isn’t as favorable, and will likely present some warmer times in between the colder shots.
As it is, note how the blocking really matures from Week 1 to Week 2.
Undoubtedly this will force a stormy period into (at least) the first half of January. At times, initially, Great Lakes cutters are possible, but as we get closer to NYE and into the 1st week of January, itself, I think that’s the window that we really need to focus on for the potential of 1, if not 2, OHV winter storm threats.
The longer range, weekly models are trending in an interesting direction for the 1st full week of January, “marrying” the moisture with the cold, locally.
CFSv2
The JMA Weeklies are also intriguing from an upper air perspective (very similar to what the other ensemble data shows for the similar time frame).
While we’re not ready to unveil our January Outlook just yet (that will come next week), I think we’ll need to start keeping a closer eye on the MJO by the middle and latter part of the month. As things stand now, it appears we may sneak into Phase 2 to open the month (favors cold, locally) before potentially getting into a milder Phase 3 towards the end of the first week.
As things stand now, once the brief arctic intrusion gets out of here this weekend, temperatures will go into a “yo-yo” mode next week as (2) storm systems impact the area between Sunday and Wednesday. The date to keep a closer eye on for potential wintry impacts is more towards Jan. 2-4 time frame as the blocking gets into better position/ matures.
We’ll be back with a video update later today. Until then, Merry Christmas Eve from our family to yours.