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October 2019 archive
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/24/video-significant-fall-storm-brewing/
Oct 24
Client Brief: Heavy Rain Saturday
Type: Heavy Rain
What: Heavy rain and gusty winds
When: Overnight Friday through Saturday
Rain Amounts: 1″ to 3″- see below on current thoughts
Wind: East 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH+
After a fairly quiet close to the work week, a vigorous upper low will track east out of OK, across northern AR, and northeast into the Ohio Valley. In response, a surface low will develop across the MS Valley Friday night, moving northeast into OH by Saturday night. The end result will be close to a (24) hr period of steady rain, at times heavy, across all of central Indiana. Additionally, we anticipate a period of gusty easterly winds Saturday morning into the afternoon hours. Widespread 1″ to 1.5″ rainfall can be expected with locally heavier amounts across central Indiana. Meanwhile, southern and southeastern Indiana can expect rainfall totals of 2″ to 3″ with locally heavier amounts. Rainfall coverage and intensity will diminish from southwest to northeast Saturday night.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/24/client-brief-heavy-rain-saturday/
Oct 23
VIDEO: Saturday Washout And Reasons To Buy The Cold Early November Idea; Winter ’19-’20 Chatter…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/23/video-saturday-washout-and-reasons-to-buy-the-cold-early-november-idea-winter-19-20-chatter/
Oct 23
Rain Chances Going Up This Weekend; Taste Of Winter Blows Into Town Before Halloween…
Dry weather will prevail today and the majority of Thursday across central Indiana (a light passing shower is possible across northern Indiana, but this won’t be a big deal).
Scattered light showers are possible Thursday night into the day Friday, along with an increase in cloud cover, but again, significantly more dry time is anticipated than wet. Some won’t see a drop of rain Friday.
As we rumble into the weekend, a vigorous upper level low in Oklahoma will “bowl” east across Arkansas and then shoot northeast across the Ohio Valley Saturday into Sunday. (Hint, you may want to get used to this kind of storm track over the upcoming winter). This will result in increasing aerial coverage of rain Saturday.
Rain will exit off to the northeast Saturday night and a drier second half of the weekend is expected. By the time all is said and done, a solid 0.50″ to 1″ of rain is expected (we’re currently siding with a blend of the aggressive European and lighter GFS).
After a wet 1st half of the weekend, all eyes will be set on a taste of winter that’s dialed up just before Halloween. A cold front will blow through the Ohio Valley early next week with the threat of rain followed by sharply colder air. As upper level energy rounds the base of the digging significant trough, the first flakes of the season can be expected across the region before Halloween (still will have to fine tune timing). This pattern will also serve up the first accumulating lake effect snow event of the season, including the Snow Belt regions of IN, MI, and OH.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/23/rain-chances-going-up-this-weekend-taste-of-winter-blows-into-town-before-halloween/
Oct 22
Plot Thickens Around Halloween Into Early November…
As we look ahead to Halloween, the pattern continues to look mighty “interesting” to say the least. A deeply negative EPO (East Pacific Oscillation) will take the drivers seat and potentially lead to some early wintry “fun and games” as we close out the month and head into early November.
Ensemble data, centered on Halloween, is in excellent agreement with respect to the overall upper air pattern. That said there are subtle differences in the handling of the southeast ridge.
These seemingly subtle differences at 500mb can mean a world of difference in terms of the resulting weather we deal with here at the surface.
We’re confident there will be a rather significant weather event on or around Halloween, but caution we’re far from being able to provide details around the specifics. The early thinking is that a storm system provides a round of showers and thunderstorms just before the holiday with sharply colder conditions pouring into the area on Halloween, itself, with the threat of the first lake effect snow outbreak of the year heading into next weekend. Stay tuned. Run-to-run differences within the operational suites will be significant in the days ahead. It’s far too early to latch on to any one particular solution.
Regardless, with high latitude blocking in place, a colder than average period of weather is likely as we move through early November. The brunt of the cold, relative to normal, should be featured across the central Plains.
More on the longer range November pattern in the days ahead. Our official November Outlook will be posted over the weekend.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/22/plot-thickens-around-halloween-into-early-november/
Oct 21
VIDEO: Sifting Through The Noise As We Close October And Open November…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/21/video-sifting-through-the-noise-as-we-close-october-and-open-november/
Oct 21
Wet, Windy, And Stormy Day Ahead…
A cold front will push across the Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the front, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected. A few of these storms may become strong to severe with damaging straight line winds being the biggest concern.
The Storm Prediction Center now includes portions of central Indiana in a ‘marginal’ risk for severe weather.
We expect a couple of rounds of storms today- one mid to late morning followed by another this evening directly ahead of the cold front.
Rain will end from west to east during the evening as the cold front sweeps across the state. Before that, some area rain gauges may accumulate around an inch of rain today (a few locally heavier totals possible).
The other headline today will be strong and gusty winds (originally out of the southwest before shifting to west this evening). Even outside of thunderstorms, gusts in excess of 40 MPH can be expected.
Drier and cooler air will arrive Tuesday through Thursday before another chilly, wet weather maker blows into town Thursday evening into Friday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/21/wet-windy-and-stormy-day-ahead/
Oct 20
Harvest ’19: Severe Storms For Southern IN Tomorrow? Precipitation And Temperature Trends Over The Upcoming 7-Days…
*Starting November 1st, our weekly agriculture and harvest updates will transition to weekly winter storm outlooks. We’ll maintain a lot of the feedback y’all have provided with the new weekly winter products. Come next growing season, the weekly agriculture and severe weather updates will return.
Forecast Period: 10.20.19 through 10.27.19
7-Day Precipitation: Average to slightly above average precipitation is expected through the period.
7-Day Temperatures: Below average temperatures are expected through the period.
Severe Weather: We’re monitoring the potential of a few strong to severe thunderstorms- mostly across southern portions of the state Monday afternoon and evening. The biggest concern has to do with the potential of damaging straight line winds with embedded cells that form directly ahead of the cold front tomorrow evening.
Frost/ Freeze: While most of the immediate region has already dealt with multiple hard frosts, frost and freeze conditions will expand south over the upcoming week. The coldest morning, overall, appears to be Saturday with the potential of a freeze extending south into the Ozarks and northern TN Valley.
Drought Monitor: The southern and eastern portion of the region remains in abnormally dry or drought conditions. The pattern ahead longer term does look favorable to erase a lot, if not all, of these dry/ droughty areas before the end of the year.
Summary: The upcoming 7-day period will feature two primary storm systems. The first arrives Monday with showers and thunderstorms. We’ll continue to monitor the potential of strong-severe storms across southern portions of Indiana tomorrow PM and update accordingly later this evening. The second system will be a colder feature and thunderstorms aren’t anticipated with Friday’s storm system. The pattern still seems poised to produce the coldest air so far this season just beyond the forecast period. Overall, upcoming 7-day rainfall totals are expected to range between 0.50″ and 0.75″ for most of immediate central Indiana.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/20/harvest-19-severe-storms-for-southern-in-tomorrow-precipitation-and-temperature-trends-over-the-upcoming-7-days/
Oct 19
VIDEO: Potential Shower This Evening? Looking Ahead To A Busy Week Of Weather…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/19/video-potential-shower-this-evening-looking-ahead-to-a-busy-week-of-weather/
Oct 18
Friday Morning Rambles…
I. A mostly dry, but breezy weekend is dialed up! A couple light showers may scoot across western portions of the state Saturday, but “light” is the key word.
South winds are expected to gust between 20-25 MPH at times over the weekend. This will deliver milder air with high temperatures reaching the upper 60s to around 70° Saturday and Sunday.
II. An active week is on tap next week with (2) strong cold fronts slated to move through the region.
The first boundary will result in widespread showers and embedded thunder Monday. Most can expect around half an inch of rain with this system to open the work week. Cooler and blustery conditions will return into midweek.
The second cold front will move though late Thursday into Friday and feature another quick pop of rain (relatively light amounts expected at this time) followed by the coldest air mass so far this autumn heading into next weekend.
The air mass will be cold enough to ignite for the first lake effect snow outbreak of the season next weekend.
Finally, we still need to monitor the prospects of additional upper level energy that may try and result in a cold rain or wintry mix just before Halloween. Regardless, Halloween is looking quite chilly this year…
III. Our official annual winter outlook will be released later this month. The latest sea surface temperature anomalies have to make central and eastern winter weather lovers drool. The persistent warmth in the NE PAC should promote a more sustained western ridge/ central and eastern trough this winter when compared to the past couple. More on this and many other factors (including the Modoki Nino event) in the near future…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/18/friday-morning-rambles-5/