November 2019 archive

VIDEO: December Outlook…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/11/30/video-december-outlook/

VIDEO: Heavy Rain Arrives Saturday; Walking Through The 1st Week Of December…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/11/29/video-heavy-rain-arrives-saturday-walking-through-the-1st-week-of-december/

VIDEO: Winds Slowly Diminish Tonight; Unsettled Weather Pattern Continues…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/11/27/video-winds-slowly-diminish-tonight-unsettled-weather-pattern-continues/

VIDEO: Short-Term Update On Our High Wind Event; Fresh December Ideas…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/11/26/video-short-term-update-on-our-high-wind-event-fresh-december-ideas/

Client Brief: Damaging Wind Gusts Arrive Tonight-Wednesday Morning…

Type: Damaging Wind

What: Wind gusts in excess of 50 MPH

When: Tonight into Wednesday morning 

Wind: Winds will increase this evening, gusting to 40 MPH before sunset. Southwest winds will gust to 50 to 55 MPH overnight into the predawn hours Wednesday. Wind speeds will slowly begin to diminish as we move into Wednesday afternoon.

Power Outages: The combination of wet ground and strong winds will likely lead to scattered power outages across central Indiana tonight and Wednesday.

A few light showers will move southwest to northeast across central Indiana later this afternoon, but it’s not until just after sunset when rain should become more widespread. We’ll likely even introduce some thunderstorms into the mix after midnight. Most of central Indiana can expect 0.50″ to 0.75″ of rain with the passage of this storm system. The bigger story will be the wind. It’ll become increasingly gusty as we progress through the afternoon and evening (30-40 MPH gusts), but gusts will reach potentially damaging levels tonight into the predawn hours Wednesday. It’s during this time period when we anticipate 50 to 55 MPH gusts across central Indiana. Rain will end by mid-morning Wednesday and wind speeds will begin to slowly diminish. 40-45 MPH gusts are still a good bet into mid-afternoon before gusts subside Wednesday evening. Finally, colder air will arrive Wednesday morning and leftover moisture may fall as a few snow flurries into the afternoon Wednesday.

Confidence: High

Next Update: Video discussion this evening

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/11/26/client-brief-damaging-wind-gusts-arrive-tonight-wednesday-morning/

VIDEO: Busy Pattern; Time To Batten Down The Hatches Tuesday Nt.-Wednesday Morning…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/11/25/video-busy-pattern-time-to-batten-down-the-hatches-tuesday-nt-wednesday-morning/

VIDEO: Thanksgiving Week Keeps Us Busy…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/11/23/video-thanksgiving-week-keeps-us-busy/

Client Brief: Wet Snow Develops This Afternoon Into The Evening…

Type: Impactful Winter Weather

What: Accumulating wet snow

When: This afternoon into early evening 

Temperatures: Falling from the upper 30s early afternoon to around 30° by late evening.

Wind: North 20-25 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Non-existent to minimal

Pavement Impacts: Salting required. Plowing will also likely be needed across east-central Indiana.

There’s an old saying in the weather business of an “upper low being a weatherman’s foe.” That’s particularly true early and late in the season due to the added complexities of marginally cold air typically available. As we discussed over the past week, the dynamics and cold air these type of systems can manufacture also creates added headache. Many instances these kind of systems result in essentially a “now cast” scenario. With all of that said, our confidence is increasing after another look at overnight model runs to put out the snowfall forecast above. Rain will overspread central Indiana late morning into the early afternoon, however, as the precipitation rates increase, we’ll notice a transition to wet snow this afternoon into the evening. There could also be a brief wintry mix, including sleet, during the transition to wet snow. Banding features will likely develop late afternoon into early evening leading to heavier snowfall across east-central parts of the state where we have the 1″ to 3″ snowfall forecast up. For the remainder of central Indiana, most should be closer to a coating with a few 1″ reports. The snow will exit even far eastern areas before midnight.

Confidence: Medium

Next Update: This afternoon

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/11/23/client-brief-wet-snow-develops-this-afternoon-into-the-evening/

VIDEO: Latest Details On Saturday; Reviewing Thanksgiving Week Weather…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/11/22/video-latest-details-on-saturday-reviewing-thanksgiving-week-weather/

Note On Saturday’s Snow Threat…

Boy, this snow season has gotten off to a rollicking start. It’s been a while since we’ve had to deal with multiple legitimate winter threats prior to Thanksgiving, but that’s the case this year. (December is also looking quite active from a wintry precipitation perspective).

As for Saturday’s event, confidence is too low to issue an initial snow “zone” map. The overall idea remains here that the best shot of accumulating wet snow will likely fall from north-central parts of the state into the northern half of Ohio, but the nature of the event will likely result in some “haves and have nots.”

Note the upper low is poised to track along the I-70 corridor, per this evening’s GFS model run. This looks reasonable to us.

With only marginally cold air in place, this is the kind of setup that can help manufacture air cold enough to result in a “thump” of wet snow for portions of the region- especially if heavier precipitation rates are involved. This is also the kind of event that would likely lead to banding features as opposed to a more “uniform” snow shield (hence the “have and have nots” that will likely occur).

At the end of the day, an accumulating wet snow event is most certainly still on the table for portions of central Indiana, but we need to factor in a couple of additional model runs before publishing our initial snow zone map.

More overnight or early Friday morning…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/11/21/note-on-saturdays-snow-threat/

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