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October 2019 archive
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/17/video-fun-and-interesting-times-ahead-tis-the-season-i-suppose/
Oct 17
Pattern Evolution Through Late October…
The teleconnections are aligning in a manner that favors a colder than average period of weather by late-October standards. Note the PNA trend positive while the EPO heads negative. The AO and NAO also follow suit.
The sum of all of the above should feature a predominant western ridge for late month with a persistent eastern trough- at times deeper than others.
Add in the fact that the MJO is anticipated to swing into Phase 2 and this further serves to increase confidence in the colder shift.
The models are focusing in on the colder close to the month and though specifics will continue to vary from run-to-run, the primary message that we want to convey is to expect a colder than average 2nd half of the month with an active storm track. As pops of more “winter-like” air get involved behind one or two of the late month storms, pre-Halloween flakes may fly across a portion of the Ohio Valley.
Given the pattern progression and anticipated teleconnection states, we think it’s wise to ensure the kiddos have a warm Halloween costume this year!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/17/pattern-evolution-through-late-october/
Oct 16
VIDEO: Predominantly Colder Than Average Pattern Takes Hold; Timing Out Storm Systems Through The 2nd Half Of October…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/16/video-predominantly-colder-than-average-pattern-takes-hold-timing-out-storm-systems-through-the-2nd-half-of-october/
Oct 15
Evening Video: A Tale Of Extended Summer That Gives Way To Sudden Winter…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/15/evening-video-a-tale-of-extended-summer-that-gives-way-to-sudden-winter/
Oct 15
VIDEO: Rain Develops By Evening; Potential Of Pre-Halloween Snow?
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/15/video-rain-develops-by-evening-potential-of-pre-halloween-snow/
Oct 14
Taste Of Winter Before Month’s End?
A cold front will whip through central Indiana Tuesday evening. Showers will accompany the frontal passage, but we still don’t anticipate much in the way of significant moisture across central Indiana. Heavier rainfall totals in excess of 0.50″ will likely fall across drought-stricken areas downstate.
Colder and blustery conditions will be with us Wednesday and Thursday, including wind chills in the upper 20s at times Wednesday morning.
A moderating trend will get underway this weekend as a gusty southwesterly breeze takes hold on the backside of retreating high pressure. This will lead to a couple of days of above normal warmth early next week (not quite done with the 70s just yet).
We’ll continue to monitor for a wet and stormy time of things Monday PM into Tuesday. The severe threat is to be determined and will require fine tuning as we push ahead over the next several days.
Once this area of low pressure and associated cold front blow through, colder air will arrive on gusty northwest winds by the middle to latter portions of next week.
This will set the tone for a rather significant colder shift as we get set to put a bow on the month of October. A secondary and more significant trough will descend into the region just after Day 10. With a developing negative EPO, positive PNA, and MJO heading for Phase 2, it’s time to start “beating the cold drum” a bit harder. In fact, latest 500mb charts would indicate there’s the potential of at least a little wintry mischief present to go along with the colder shift.
This should at least kick up the lake effect snow guns for the first time this season, and we’ll have to monitor things for the possibility of “backside” energy digging south at the base of the trough that would present the possibility of a little early season snow across parts of the Ohio Valley region as Halloween week nears…
Times, they are, indeed, ‘a changing…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/14/taste-of-winter-before-months-end/
Oct 14
VIDEO: Frosty Midweek; Colder And Active Stretch Of Weather For Late October?
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/14/video-frosty-midweek-colder-and-active-stretch-of-weather-for-late-october/
Oct 13
Harvest ’19: Tis The Season For Changeable Weather Patterns…
*Starting November 1st, our weekly agriculture and harvest updates will transition to weekly winter storm outlooks. We’ll maintain a lot of the feedback y’all have provided with the new weekly winter products. Come next growing season, the weekly agriculture and severe weather updates will return.
Forecast Period: 10.13.19 through 10.20.19
7-Day Precipitation: Below average precipitation is expected through the period.
7-Day Temperatures: Below average temperatures are expected overall throughout the period.
Severe Weather: Severe weather isn’t anticipated through the period.
Frost/ Freeze: Many across the central and northern Ohio Valley have now recorded their first frost or freeze of the season. Additional frosty mornings are ahead during the upcoming forecast period with Thursday morning looking like the coldest as of now. The first frost and/ or freeze of the season will continue to advance southeast with the southern Appalachians likely putting an end to their growing season by Thursday morning.
Drought Monitor: The southern and eastern portion of the Ohio Valley remains in either a drought or abnormally dry state. Unfortunately, heaviest rains with Friday’s cold front targeted areas west or north of these areas. While the upcoming week won’t provide significant relief, the drivers behind the pattern ahead promise to deliver more frequent and beneficial precipitation events in the next 2-3 weeks.
Summary: The upcoming 7-day period will feature a quiet and pleasant open to the week before a fast moving system passes Tuesday evening with a round of showers followed by a windy mid-week period. Strong and gusty northwest winds will drive another unseasonably chilly air mass into central Indiana Tuesday night through Thursday before our air flow backs around to the south into next weekend. This will provide for modifying temperatures Friday into Saturday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/13/harvest-19-tis-the-season-for-changeable-weather-patterns/
Oct 12
VIDEO: Timing Out Storm Systems In The Upcoming Week; Colder Late Month Trends…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/12/video-timing-out-storm-systems-in-the-upcoming-week-colder-late-month-trends/
Oct 11
First Strong Cold Front Of The Season…
Our Friday is starting off with heavy rain and embedded thunder across western portions of the state.
It’ll still be a while before central Indiana gets in on the more concentrated, widespread rain. We think this arrives later this afternoon into the early evening hours. Most can expect to pick up between 0.20” and 0.40” across central parts of the state, but there will be a few locally heavier totals.
Before the rain arrives, a strong southerly wind ahead of the front will send temperatures to around 70°. Meanwhile, note temperatures at the same time already into the 40s across eastern IL.
The temperature crash will continue through the evening hours advancing east. By 7p, temperatures in and around Indianapolis and points west will be in the 40s. A gusty wind will result in “feels like” temperatures into the 30s.
The first freeze of the season is expected Saturday morning for many across central Indiana into western and northern portions of the state. We anticipate wind chill values to fall into the middle 20s.
Another reinforcing shot of chilly air is dialed up next week. More on this and other items a bit later…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/11/first-strong-cold-front-of-the-season/