Feb 03
A new week has dawned and with it will come a very busy weather pattern. Thankfully, today we’ll enjoy a “hint of spring,” including temperatures approaching the 60 deg. mark…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunday-morning-video-update-walking-through-the-active-week-ahead-looking-towards-mid-feb/
Jan 24
We’ll save our short-term discussions for the severe and high-impact arctic outbreak on deck and focus our attention in this post to the upcoming several weeks. In short, we don’t expect the cold pattern to break anytime soon. Could there be a day or two of “relaxation?” Yes, but from an overall perspective, confidence is higher than normal on the colder than average pattern continuing through the month of February.
Let’s dig in to the teleconnections:
EPO
AO
NAO
PNA
Given the teleconnections in agreement pointing towards a cold pattern, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the majority of data is also on the cold train as we flip the page into February:
CFSv2 Weeklies
Weeks 1 & 2
Weeks 3 & 4
JMA Weekly
GEFS
While we aren’t licensed to show the European Weeklies, the new update runs with a cold pattern into early March. This falls in line with the overall consensus of longer range data, backed up by teleconnections.
Though not nearly at the amplitude of a few weeks ago, the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is forecast to move through Phases 5 and 6 in the coming weeks before going back into the “null” phase.
Phases 5 and 6 this time of year would suggest colder anomalies are more likely around our neck of the woods:
Given the above, we continue to think a colder than average “2nd half” of winter looms for the region. We lean heavily on the NAO, EPO, and AO state(s) this time of year and all would point towards a cold time of things moving forward, overall. The latest European Weeklies are interesting from a couple of fronts- initially very cold and then progressively stormy. The idea here is that we remain quite wintry through February and into early March before this pattern breaks. While we may not see a “repeat” visit of the Vortex, it wouldn’t surprise us to see another major arctic outbreak again this winter (after next week), but that likely comes later, and towards the end of the game before we snap into spring.
Buckle up; we think we have a long way to go this winter…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-cold-pattern-isnt-going-anywhere-fast/
Jan 06
I. Today won’t feature nearly as much sunshine as we enjoyed Saturday, but considering it’s early-January, we can’t complain about mid-upper 40s and dry conditions. Morning fog in spots will burn off to increasing mid and high level cloudiness today ahead of our approaching Monday storm system.
II. A cold front will push rain back into the state as we open the work week. Rain will reach greatest coverage around the lunchtime hour into the early afternoon. Overall, central Indiana rain gauges can expect to accumulate somewhere between 0.10″ and 0.25″ Monday.
Note this storm system won’t have a Gulf of Mexico (GOM) connection. Thus, the reason behind the lighter rainfall numbers compared to recent events.
III. Colder air will pour in behind the storm system. Highs will struggle to reach the freezing mark Wednesday and Thursday. Dry times return.
IV. A weak system may deliver rain or snow next weekend, but modeling differs on how they handle this energy. We’ll keep an eye on things and update accordingly.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/week-ahead-outlook-relatively-quiet-times-remain/
Nov 12
I. A weak weather system will result in light precipitation (mostly snow) overspreading central and northern portions of the state later this evening into the overnight. Moisture looks less and less impressive with each and every model run, but we’ll still go with a slushy coating to less than 1″ for the city, itself with a general 1″ to 2″ of wet snow for communities off to the north of the city. Additionally, a lake effect snow band should get going Tuesday morning and this band may make it south into east-central Indiana in a weakened state.
Light snow will overspread the region tonight. Image courtesy of Weathermodels.com.
II. Another push of unseasonably cold air will pour south into the region behind this storm system and set the stage for a potentially interesting time of things when a new storm system approaches a bit later in the week…
III. A very complex storm system will impact the area Thursday. While there are many details that are yet to be worked out, someone across the mid-south into the Ohio Valley will likely get a “plowable” snow out of this event. Initially, available cold air will be marginal, but with an expected strong upper level low, this storm system is likely to “manufacture” its’ own cold air and result in a swath of heavy, wet snow to the north and northwest of where the upper low tracks. Stay tuned.
Behind this storm, you guessed it- cold air will reinforce itself across the region heading into next weekend!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/looking-at-a-busy-wintry-week-ahead/
Sep 09
Rainfall of significance is over, and thankfully so. Many area rainfall totals checked in between 4″ and 7″ and while significant, the overall forward motion of Gordon’s remnants moved much quicker than forecast guidance suggested, ultimately limiting flooding issues from being even worse.
Today we’re left will overcast skies, patchy drizzle at times, gusty winds, and MUCH cooler air. In fact, the majority of our Sunday will be spent in the 50s. In case you’re wondering, November 1st is the “average” first day with a high in the 50s- 59° to be exact.
Patchy drizzle is possible through the day, but significant rainfall is over.
Temperatures will remain steady in the upper 50s for the majority of the day.
High pressure will return to open the work week. We’ll still likely deal with more clouds than sun on Monday, but as high pressure builds directly overhead Tuesday, more in the way of sunshine will return. Temperatures will be very pleasant through the first half of the work week- lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s.
All eyes will shift to Florence by midweek. She’ll likely go through a period of significant strengthening on her journey closer to the southeast US coast with a potential landfall along the Carolina coastline Thursday. There’s still time to watch things unfold, but confidence is increasing on a potential major hurricane making landfall later this week.
Unfortunately, the upper air pattern and lack of a steering current would lead to Florence either stalling out or “meandering” around the mid-Atlantic region for potentially several days…
Meanwhile, back here on the home front, our fall-like early week feel will transition to warmer times as we move into late week and next weekend. Highs in the mid 80s will return with lows in the mid to upper 60s.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/looking-at-the-week-ahead-2/