Category: Weekly Outlook

May 20

Unsettled Open To The Week And Looking Towards Next Weekend…

As we type this Sunday evening a few strong storms have developed across east-central Indiana.  If your travels take you east this evening, a couple of these storms have been producing large hail and strong winds.

Otherwise, a stalled frontal boundary remains draped across the Ohio Valley and will serve as the focal point for additional shower and thunderstorm development through the early stages of the week.  Rainfall coverage will likely be most widespread Monday, and come in a couple waves: Monday morning into early afternoon and again Monday evening.

By the time all is said and done late Monday night and early Tuesday, expect widespread rainfall totals between 0.50″ and 1″ with locally heavier amounts where the stronger storms track.

High pressure will build into the region through the midweek stretch and result in increasingly sunny and pleasant conditions.  With a drier air mass in place, overnight lows will fall into the 50s through the midweek period.

Our attention will then shift to the threat of active times for the Memorial Day weekend, including the 102nd running of the Indianapolis 500.  After a mostly dry Friday, shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase Friday night through the weekend, continuing into early Monday as of now.  While it won’t rain the entire time, it might be a good idea to have a “plan B” in mind at times for the busy upcoming weekend.  Models like the idea of a rather significant, albeit likely brief, cool down to close the month…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/unsettled-open-to-the-week-and-looking-towards-next-weekend/

May 13

Still Warm, But Much More Active…

So far, May-to-date has run well above average in the temperature department (+8.5°) and below average from a precipitation perspective.  While we’ll continue to run much warmer than normal through the second half of the month, we’ll begin to make up for “lost time” in the rainfall department, and that starts this week.

Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms are included in your latest 7-day and, at times, storm complexes will likely reach strong to severe levels as disturbances ride the periphery of an upper level ridge off to our south.  It certainly won’t rain the entire time over the upcoming week and we’ll still enjoy more dry hours than wet and stormy.  That said, for a region running around 1.5″ below average, the more active times will be a welcome sight for many.  By next Sunday, we expect many area rain gauges to accumulate 1.5″ to 2.5″ of rain with locally heavier amounts.

Warmth will continue to dominate through the next couple of weeks.

For a change, above normal precipitation is expected over the upcoming week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/still-warm-but-much-more-active/

Oct 26

Analyzing The New JMA Weeklies…

The NEW JMA Weeklies are in and they center the coolest anomalies for November across the central, including our region.  Overall, they’re pretty chilly relative to normal, and also wetter than average.  Perhaps we get into some November frozen precipitation?

Week 1:

Week 2:

Weeks 3-4:

28 Day Mean:

After the cold start to the month, the JMA Weeklies suggest ridges will “bookend” the country as November evolves, especially the Northeast region.  This fits our research, as well, and fits the pattern, overall.  If you haven’t had an opportunity to read our Winter Outlook, we discussed the potential of early cold centering itself into the “belly” of the country and the Weeklies appear to be seeing this, as well.

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/analyzing-the-new-jma-weeklies/

Sep 23

VIDEO: Transitional Pattern Over The Upcoming 10 Days…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-transitional-pattern-over-the-upcoming-10-days/

Sep 14

Weekly Update: JMA, CFSv2, Euro…

The general consensus between the JMA and CFSv2 is that warmth is the story through Week 2, especially this weekend into next week.  JMA first:

Week 1

Week 2

Weeks 3-4

Before we show the CFSv2, a couple take-aways from the JMA:

  • Warmth is most impressive early on (through next week), relative to average
  • As cold tries to push, active times will return (finally) to the region from Week 2 on

Now…the CFSv2:

Weeks 1-2

Weeks 3-4

Key take-aways:

  • Similar to the JMA, warmth is most impressive early on before a “fight” develops thereafter.

While we can’t show the European Weeklies due to licensing issues, they paint a similar theme, overall.  They sing a similar song in the short-term for warmth to close the month, but are much more bullish on the transition to a colder than average first half of October compared to the CFSv2 and JMA.

To sum things up, confidence is high on a summer-like regime to engulf the region through the balance of the second half of September as a ‘Nina-ish pattern takes hold.  Late-season summer warmth will rule through next week, including highs in the 85°-90° range at times- developing as early as this weekend.  This, of course, comes on the heels of an unusually early cool start to meteorological fall (IND is running a whopping 6° below average, MTD).  After the warmth dominates, a transitional pattern should ensue, including more active times (wetter than average as we close September and open October), along with “pops” of colder air.  That said, a consistently positive southern oscillation index has us “raising an eye brow” to the aggressively cold start to October such as the Euro implies… Stay tuned.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekly-update-jma-cfsv2-euro/