Category Archives: Weekly Outlook

Week Ahead Outlook: Relatively Quiet Times Remain…

I. Today won’t feature nearly as much sunshine as we enjoyed Saturday, but considering it’s early-January, we can’t complain about mid-upper 40s and dry conditions.  Morning fog in spots will burn off to increasing mid and high level cloudiness today ahead of our approaching Monday storm system.

II. A cold front will push rain back into the state as we open the work week.  Rain will reach greatest coverage around the lunchtime hour into the early afternoon.  Overall, central Indiana rain gauges can expect to accumulate somewhere between 0.10″ and 0.25″ Monday.

Note this storm system won’t have a Gulf of Mexico (GOM) connection. Thus, the reason behind the lighter rainfall numbers compared to recent events.

III. Colder air will pour in behind the storm system.  Highs will struggle to reach the freezing mark Wednesday and Thursday. Dry times return.

IV. A weak system may deliver rain or snow next weekend, but modeling differs on how they handle this energy.  We’ll keep an eye on things and update accordingly.

No Comments Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weekly Outlook

Looking At A Busy (Wintry) Week Ahead…

I.  A weak weather system will result in light precipitation (mostly snow) overspreading central and northern portions of the state later this evening into the overnight.  Moisture looks less and less impressive with each and every model run, but we’ll still go with a slushy coating to less than 1″ for the city, itself with a general 1″ to 2″ of wet snow for communities off to the north of the city.  Additionally, a lake effect snow band should get going Tuesday morning and this band may make it south into east-central Indiana in a weakened state.

Light snow will overspread the region tonight. Image courtesy of Weathermodels.com.

II.  Another push of unseasonably cold air will pour south into the region behind this storm system and set the stage for a potentially interesting time of things when a new storm system approaches a bit later in the week…

III.  A very complex storm system will impact the area Thursday.  While there are many details that are yet to be worked out, someone across the mid-south into the Ohio Valley will likely get a “plowable” snow out of this event.  Initially, available cold air will be marginal, but with an expected strong upper level low, this storm system is likely to “manufacture” its’ own cold air and result in a swath of heavy, wet snow to the north and northwest of where the upper low tracks.  Stay tuned.

Behind this storm, you guessed it- cold air will reinforce itself across the region heading into next weekend!

No Comments Arctic Cold, Autumn, Cut Off Low, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Lake Effect Snow, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weekly Outlook

Looking At The Week Ahead…

Rainfall of significance is over, and thankfully so.  Many area rainfall totals checked in between 4″ and 7″ and while significant, the overall forward motion of Gordon’s remnants moved much quicker than forecast guidance suggested, ultimately limiting flooding issues from being even worse.

Today we’re left will overcast skies, patchy drizzle at times, gusty winds, and MUCH cooler air.  In fact, the majority of our Sunday will be spent in the 50s.  In case you’re wondering, November 1st is the “average” first day with a high in the 50s- 59° to be exact.

Patchy drizzle is possible through the day, but significant rainfall is over.
Temperatures will remain steady in the upper 50s for the majority of the day.

High pressure will return to open the work week.  We’ll still likely deal with more clouds than sun on Monday, but as high pressure builds directly overhead Tuesday, more in the way of sunshine will return.  Temperatures will be very pleasant through the first half of the work week- lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s.

All eyes will shift to Florence by midweek.  She’ll likely go through a period of significant strengthening on her journey closer to the southeast US coast with a potential landfall along the Carolina coastline Thursday.  There’s still time to watch things unfold, but confidence is increasing on a potential major hurricane making landfall later this week.

Unfortunately, the upper air pattern and lack of a steering current would lead to Florence either stalling out or “meandering” around the mid-Atlantic region for potentially several days…

Meanwhile, back here on the home front, our fall-like early week feel will transition to warmer times as we move into late week and next weekend.  Highs in the mid 80s will return with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

No Comments Autumn, Flooding, Florence, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Harvest'18, Heavy Rain, Rain, Tropics, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weekly Outlook

Tuesday Morning Rambles: Drier Air Before Our Next Front…

I. Drier air will work into the region and limit rain chances today and Wednesday (isolated coverage at best). Highs will also warm back up to seasonal levels during the time.

Drier air will work into the Ohio Valley today and Wednesday. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

II. Our next frontal boundary will arrive Thursday afternoon.  Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening hours.  Behind the boundary, cooler and refreshing air will return to wrap up the work week.

Cooler, more refreshing air will return to wrap up the work week. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

III. We’re timing out our next storm system for a weekend arrival. While the weekend won’t be a wash out, rain chances will return late Saturday into Sunday. Forecast models differ on the specifics with respect to timing, track, and rainfall amounts and all will have to be fine tuned over the next few days.

The GFS is faster and more aggressive on weekend rain. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.
Meanwhile, the European is slower with rain, bringing the bulk of precipitation in AFTER the weekend. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

IV. Longer range, we don’t see any significant heat on the immediate horizon. On that note, while we aren’t saying additional hot days won’t occur the rest of the way in, we continue to believe the hottest weather of the summer is behind us. The new European Weeklies in last night continued a seasonal to cooler than average theme for August into early September.  All images below are courtesy of weathermodels.com.

Days 10-17
Days 18-25
Days 25-32
Days 32-39
Days 38-45
No Comments European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weather Rambles, Weekly Outlook