Category Archives: Weekly Outlook

Looking At The Week Ahead…

Rainfall of significance is over, and thankfully so.  Many area rainfall totals checked in between 4″ and 7″ and while significant, the overall forward motion of Gordon’s remnants moved much quicker than forecast guidance suggested, ultimately limiting flooding issues from being even worse.

Today we’re left will overcast skies, patchy drizzle at times, gusty winds, and MUCH cooler air.  In fact, the majority of our Sunday will be spent in the 50s.  In case you’re wondering, November 1st is the “average” first day with a high in the 50s- 59° to be exact.

Patchy drizzle is possible through the day, but significant rainfall is over.
Temperatures will remain steady in the upper 50s for the majority of the day.

High pressure will return to open the work week.  We’ll still likely deal with more clouds than sun on Monday, but as high pressure builds directly overhead Tuesday, more in the way of sunshine will return.  Temperatures will be very pleasant through the first half of the work week- lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s.

All eyes will shift to Florence by midweek.  She’ll likely go through a period of significant strengthening on her journey closer to the southeast US coast with a potential landfall along the Carolina coastline Thursday.  There’s still time to watch things unfold, but confidence is increasing on a potential major hurricane making landfall later this week.

Unfortunately, the upper air pattern and lack of a steering current would lead to Florence either stalling out or “meandering” around the mid-Atlantic region for potentially several days…

Meanwhile, back here on the home front, our fall-like early week feel will transition to warmer times as we move into late week and next weekend.  Highs in the mid 80s will return with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

No Comments Autumn, Flooding, Florence, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Harvest'18, Heavy Rain, Rain, Tropics, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weekly Outlook

Tuesday Morning Rambles: Drier Air Before Our Next Front…

I. Drier air will work into the region and limit rain chances today and Wednesday (isolated coverage at best). Highs will also warm back up to seasonal levels during the time.

Drier air will work into the Ohio Valley today and Wednesday. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

II. Our next frontal boundary will arrive Thursday afternoon.  Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening hours.  Behind the boundary, cooler and refreshing air will return to wrap up the work week.

Cooler, more refreshing air will return to wrap up the work week. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

III. We’re timing out our next storm system for a weekend arrival. While the weekend won’t be a wash out, rain chances will return late Saturday into Sunday. Forecast models differ on the specifics with respect to timing, track, and rainfall amounts and all will have to be fine tuned over the next few days.

The GFS is faster and more aggressive on weekend rain. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.
Meanwhile, the European is slower with rain, bringing the bulk of precipitation in AFTER the weekend. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

IV. Longer range, we don’t see any significant heat on the immediate horizon. On that note, while we aren’t saying additional hot days won’t occur the rest of the way in, we continue to believe the hottest weather of the summer is behind us. The new European Weeklies in last night continued a seasonal to cooler than average theme for August into early September.  All images below are courtesy of weathermodels.com.

Days 10-17
Days 18-25
Days 25-32
Days 32-39
Days 38-45
No Comments European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weather Rambles, Weekly Outlook

Looking At The Week Ahead: Changes Begin…

Our Saturday morning is dawning with pleasant conditions- filtered sunshine and temperatures in the mid and upper 60s for most.  We’ll notice a couple of items today: 1.) increasing humidity as the day progresses and 2.) increasing storm chances later this evening.  While most of the daytime hours should remain dry across central Indiana, that begins to change tonight.  A cold front lies off to our northwest this morning and this front will slowly push southeast between now and Monday, passing the region Monday evening.  Until the front passes, a more unsettled pattern can be expected.  While it won’t storm the entire time over the next (3) days, a couple of rounds of hefty shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected.  With a tropical air mass in place (PWATs flirting with 2″), locally heavy rain will accompany the storms.

The big story through the daytime today will be the heat.  Most central Indiana neighborhoods will top out in the lower to middle 90s with heat indices approaching 105° at times.  Take the heat seriously this afternoon and evening and ensure you have means to take frequent breaks if planning any time outdoors.

We’ll notice thunderstorms becoming more numerous for our friends in Illinois through the afternoon and evening, but central Indiana should remain mostly dry until tonight.  Forecast radar products want to bring these storms into the state after the 7p to 8p time frame.  We’ll keep close tabs on radar trends this afternoon.

(Again, with high moisture content, any thunderstorm that passes through your neighborhood will be capable of producing torrential rainfall).  For that matter, the same story can be said with storms that develop Sunday and Monday, as precipitable water values will remain around 2″ until the front sweeps through the state.

A “juicy” air mass will help fuel locally heavy rain through early week.

Finally, the aforementioned cold front will sweep the state Monday evening.  This will put an end to rain chances through midweek and allow for a refreshing air mass to blow into the region.  How do highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s sound with low humidity?  Overnight lows will be allowed to fall into the 50s during this time frame.

Overall, dry conditions should prevail until late next weekend when a secondary, even stronger, front will make a run at the region.  We’ll ramp storm chances back up ahead of this expected front and the air mass behind the boundary in the Week 2 time period will be even cooler than we we’ll enjoy the middle part of the upcoming week.

Speaking of cool, the pattern continues to look vastly different as we put a wrap on the month than what we’ve grown accustomed to over the past couple of weeks.  Note the dominant trough the models show setting up shop over the Mid West…

No Comments Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles, Weekly Outlook

Serious Heat & Humidity Continues In The Week Ahead…

An expansive upper level ridge will keep many across the eastern half of the country very hot and humid over the upcoming week.  The worst of this particular heat wave, relative to average, will center itself over the Great Lakes and Northeast.

More specific to central Indiana, daily highs in the lower to middle 90s and overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s will continue into late next week.  For the most part, this is a dry pattern, as well, BUT there will be a few exceptions.

The first of such arrives Sunday evening into Sunday night with the potential of a line of showers and thunderstorms rumbling into the state.  We note high resolution models weaken this line of storms as it arrives into central Indiana (likely after dark Sunday), but we’ll keep an eye on things.  As things stand now, the western half of the state stands the greatest risk of getting meaningful rain Sunday evening.

Thereafter, additional isolated to widely scattered storm coverage is possible- primarily during the afternoon and evening hours, but more than not will remain rain-free.  7-day precipitation totals check in this morning in the 0.25″ to 0.75″ range.

In the longer range, we should begin to see a transition to “less hot” 🙂 conditions next weekend followed by a more significant pattern change for the second half of July as the upper level ridge retrogrades west, centering itself over the Rocky Mountain region.

Not only will this likely lead to a cooler second half of July, but should also offer up an increasingly active and wetter northwesterly flow for our immediate region.

No Comments AG Report, Ensemble Discussion, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Independence Day, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm, Weekly Outlook