Category Archives: Weekly Outlook

Another Active Week Ahead…

Saturday will feature unseasonably refreshing conditions as we’ll remain under the influence of an area of low pressure tracking off to our northeast.  Look for considerable cloudiness today along with highs around 10° below average.  Enjoy it as significant heat looms late next week.

Sunshine will increase for the second half of the weekend and highs will respond- mid 80s after a refreshing start Sunday morning.

High pressure will briefly build in and control our weather through the early part of the new week.  An attempt of a thunderstorm complex to impact central Indiana Monday should be thwarted by a drier air mass in place.  That said, moisture will increase Tuesday and beyond and a more active regime will return. Multiple thunderstorm complexes (some heavy) will rumble across the Ohio Valley and Mid West Tuesday through Thursday.

While it’ll certainly turn more humid through midweek, the rain and storms will keep temperatures at seasonable levels.  All of that changes once to Thursday and Friday as a building ridge of high pressure expands across the Ohio Valley.

This will limit rain chances and potentially offer up the hottest air of the summer.  We expect 5-6 days of low-mid 90s for highs and oppressive overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s.

Thankfully, the hot dome will retrograde west and lead to “less hot” and increasingly stormy conditions after the first week of July.  An active northwest flow pattern will take hold and provide an active time of things during this period.

No Comments Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Independence Day, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weekly Outlook

New Week Kicks Off With More Storm Chances…

An active, and at times stormy, pattern will remain into the new week.  The setup remains the same and doesn’t need rehashing :-).  While we’ll have to keep a close eye on the potential of morning convection around the area Sunday, thinking here is beginning to shift to Sunday night and predawn Monday as the next best chance of gusty storms and more widespread coverage of beneficial rain.  A warm and muggy air mass will be in place and as vigorous upper level energy interacts with the tropical air, thunderstorms that initiate to our northwest should hold together, if not grow stronger moving into central Indiana.

Upper level energy will track across the state Sunday night and Monday morning.
Dew points are forecast to surge into the lower 70s Sunday night.
Precipitable water values will approach 2″ Sunday night and early Monday morning.
Forecast radar is beginning to pick up on potentially a noisy time of things Sunday night.

A warm and sticky air mass will remain in place through the first half of the work week before a frontal passage offers up a brief bout of slightly drier air for the middle of the week.  Dew points will ease back into comfy range (50s) Wednesday and should also lead to a mostly dry day.

We’ll get to at least briefly enjoy a drier air mass Wednesday.

Humidity will build once again as we move into the latter portions of the work week and with the return of the summer mugginess will come a return of thunderstorm chances (scattered coverage Thursday and Friday).

An early look at next weekend shows general agreement with the GFS and European forecast models: drier air returning along with slightly cooler air.  We’ll keep you updated!

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Dew points, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles, Weekly Outlook

Unsettled Open To The Week And Looking Towards Next Weekend…

As we type this Sunday evening a few strong storms have developed across east-central Indiana.  If your travels take you east this evening, a couple of these storms have been producing large hail and strong winds.

Otherwise, a stalled frontal boundary remains draped across the Ohio Valley and will serve as the focal point for additional shower and thunderstorm development through the early stages of the week.  Rainfall coverage will likely be most widespread Monday, and come in a couple waves: Monday morning into early afternoon and again Monday evening.

By the time all is said and done late Monday night and early Tuesday, expect widespread rainfall totals between 0.50″ and 1″ with locally heavier amounts where the stronger storms track.

High pressure will build into the region through the midweek stretch and result in increasingly sunny and pleasant conditions.  With a drier air mass in place, overnight lows will fall into the 50s through the midweek period.

Our attention will then shift to the threat of active times for the Memorial Day weekend, including the 102nd running of the Indianapolis 500.  After a mostly dry Friday, shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase Friday night through the weekend, continuing into early Monday as of now.  While it won’t rain the entire time, it might be a good idea to have a “plan B” in mind at times for the busy upcoming weekend.  Models like the idea of a rather significant, albeit likely brief, cool down to close the month…

No Comments Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Indy 500, Memorial Day weekend, Rain, Spring, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weekly Outlook

Still Warm, But Much More Active…

So far, May-to-date has run well above average in the temperature department (+8.5°) and below average from a precipitation perspective.  While we’ll continue to run much warmer than normal through the second half of the month, we’ll begin to make up for “lost time” in the rainfall department, and that starts this week.

Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms are included in your latest 7-day and, at times, storm complexes will likely reach strong to severe levels as disturbances ride the periphery of an upper level ridge off to our south.  It certainly won’t rain the entire time over the upcoming week and we’ll still enjoy more dry hours than wet and stormy.  That said, for a region running around 1.5″ below average, the more active times will be a welcome sight for many.  By next Sunday, we expect many area rain gauges to accumulate 1.5″ to 2.5″ of rain with locally heavier amounts.

Warmth will continue to dominate through the next couple of weeks.
For a change, above normal precipitation is expected over the upcoming week.
No Comments 10-day, AG Report, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Plant '18, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm, Weekly Outlook

Analyzing The New JMA Weeklies…

The NEW JMA Weeklies are in and they center the coolest anomalies for November across the central, including our region.  Overall, they’re pretty chilly relative to normal, and also wetter than average.  Perhaps we get into some November frozen precipitation?

Week 1:

Week 2:

Weeks 3-4:

28 Day Mean:

After the cold start to the month, the JMA Weeklies suggest ridges will “bookend” the country as November evolves, especially the Northeast region.  This fits our research, as well, and fits the pattern, overall.  If you haven’t had an opportunity to read our Winter Outlook, we discussed the potential of early cold centering itself into the “belly” of the country and the Weeklies appear to be seeing this, as well.

 

No Comments Forecast Discussion, JMA, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weekly Outlook, Winter Outlook