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It’s another frigid start to the day with widespread lower to middle 10s across central Indiana. Even colder air resides across the eastern Ohio Valley with single digits over the fresh snowpack.
Today will feature quiet weather until later this evening when a weak clipper-like system slides southeast. This feature will help increase our cloud cover and result in a few light snow showers across the northern half of the state. Those snow showers may make it as far south as the I-70 corridor by evening before dissipating. Not expecting much, if any accumulation, locally, across central Indiana.
Quiet conditions will return as we open up the new week, but a fast moving storm system will result in increasing cloudiness through the day Monday and rain returning Monday evening into Tuesday.
In general, we anticipate this system to deposit somewhere between 0.50″ and 0.75″ Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Much colder air will follow the cold frontal passage for midweek, including a stretch of highs in the upper 20s and 30s and lows in the 10s.
High pressure will supply dry and sunny weather as we get set to close the work week, and as we look ahead, it doesn’t appear as if our next storm system will impact the region until the 2nd half of next weekend.
The latest European Weeklies are in and suggest that the worst of the heat will be behind us after next week (for the summer as a whole). Let’s take a look at the upcoming period into the latter part of July to see where the model believes the rest of the month goes from here.
Week 2: July 8-15
Below average temperatures are expected across the Plains into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region while the warmth is “shoved” west and south.
Week 3: July 15-22
Cooler air is expected to dominate across the central and northern Plains while the West Coast and Deep South remains warmer than normal. The central Plains into the western Great Lakes region looks wet for Week 3.
Week 4: July 22-29
Common theme of below normal temperatures continues across the Plains into the Great Lakes with warmth across the West and South. To no surprise, the Southern Plains looks to run dry where the above normal warmth persists while above normal rainfall is shown by the model across the Ohio Valley into the southern Great Lakes.
This is another “tool in the belt,” so to speak, and our official July Forecast can be found here.
I. Briefly Refreshing: A badly needed dry stretch of weather will be short-lived- 24 hours at most for the majority of central Indiana, and that’s if you’re lucky. This evening, however, will offer a much drier brand of air building into the area along with dew points and temperatures falling into the middle to upper 50s. Areas of dense fog will be possible Friday morning in spots.
II. Tropical Air Returns: Just as soon as the drier air mass arrives, it’ll depart. We’ll go from morning dew points in the middle 50s Friday to upper 60s by evening and into the lower 70s by Saturday evening. It’s safe to the say that once to Saturday afternoon the humidity will be back with authority.
III. Warm Front Provides Focus For Storms: A warm front will lift northeast over the weekend and serve focus for hefty storms clusters to track in a northwest to southeast fashion. The first of a series of these clusters will likely arrive into the state late Friday morning or early afternoon and most likely affect the southwest portion of the state.
We believe the drier air mass will initially serve to shunt the storms to our southwest, but as an increasingly moist air mass lifts north, better chances of storms will return Friday evening into Saturday morning. This is a tough pattern to get specific with timing these storms clusters, but it’s safe to say central Indiana will come under the gun for multiple rounds of storms through the weekend and into early next week.
IV. Warmer; Drier Trends: While we can’t completely eliminate rain and storm chances, the trends continue to move towards a warmer and drier pattern building in here in the medium range (6-10 day period, or the overall period through the middle of next week into next weekend) as an upper level ridge builds over the Ohio Valley.
Enjoy while we have it as we continue to believe the pattern will return to an overall cooler and wetter theme for the bulk of July.
V. NEW European Weeklies: The updated European Weeklies are in and while they keep a warmer than normal pattern in place through the first 1/3 of July, they are bullish on signaling the return of a cooler regime around or shortly after the 10th. After a drier theme early July, wetter conditions are also signaled on the updated model data for the 2nd half of the month.
After an active evening across central Indiana on Wednesday, I’m excited to say the upcoming 48-72 hours looks much calmer overall. All of the “action” will be off to our south the next couple of days with mixed clouds and sun and seasonable warmth dominating across central Indiana.
Highs today and Friday will top out in the lower to middle 80s.
While we’ll remain dry across central Indiana to wrap up the work week, better chances of showers will remain across far southern portions of the state (closer to the influence of the upper low swirling across the southern Plains and into the Ark-La-Tex region tomorrow).
The upper low will move closer to the region over the weekend and result in better shower coverage as we move into Saturday and Sunday (still not looking at wash-outs either day).
An average of various computer models prints out rainfall amounts between 0.50″ and 1″ in the Saturday through Monday time period.
High pressure will build in Tuesday and Wednesday, supplying a return of dry conditions.
A cold front and associated area of low pressure will approach Thursday and this will serve to deliver a round of scattered thunderstorms as we make the transition towards next weekend. A few gusty storms are a good bet Thursday with this frontal system. With this being a week out, we’ll continue to keep an eye on things and be able to get more specific with time. Perhaps as big of a story will be the unseasonably cool air that will blow into town behind the front to close next week. Lows in the 40s and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s seem likely and a far cry from what we’d normally expect for mid-June.
