Models have been suggesting that the middle of June (roughly June 10th-20th) would turn increasingly stormy and wet. The JMA led the charge several weeks ago with this idea. The GFS and it’s ensemble data has, for the most part, been on board with this line of thought, as well. On the flip side, more times than not, the powerful European forecast model has suggested we shouldn’t “hold our breath” on the prospects of a wetter shift. With the target period now only a few days out, it’s time to “put up or shut up.” I was chatting with a good friend of mine Tuesday evening concerning the recent dry conditions for the heart of central Indiana and that we’re heading into a “telling time” starting as early as this weekend. Should the wetter scenarios pan out I think it’ll be enough to keep the worst of the heat and droughty conditions west of Indiana for the balance of the summer. (Please know that’s not us saying it won’t turn dry at times, but instead just that the worst of the heat and dry conditions would be placed to our west).
While the all-important surface results differ, it’s encouraging to see that at least from the perspective of an upper air pattern standpoint, both models are rather similar. More significantly, this pattern would support rounds of thunderstorm complexes tracking southeast into the Ohio Valley this weekend and into early next week.
While impossible to nail down exactly which back yards would see beneficial rainfall, it would be an overall more conducive pattern for widespread showers and thunderstorms for our general region. We’ll have to lean on high resolution, shorter-term models as time draws closer to gain more insight around more precise timing and track details, but we continue to trend our forecast wetter Friday through Sunday than we’ve been over the past couple weeks- Alberto remnants excluded.
Come this time next week we’ll have a much better idea of where the balance of the summer is going, locally. Should beneficial rains fall, it’s still not too late in the season to have a significant longer term impact on summer as a whole. In fact, if we can get water in the ground, it would be easier to buy into the cooler regime the models are currently showing late-June. At the very least, an interesting weekend lies ahead…
Our attention will then shift to the potential of strong thunderstorms late Sunday. Higher resolution guidance suggests storms will begin to rumble into western Indiana late Sunday evening (around 9p to 10p) before tracking east into the overnight hours.
With a stalled front nearby, shower and thunderstorm chances will remain in our forecast into the middle of the week. While it won’t rain the entire time, unsettled conditions will remain into Wednesday before high pressure provides drier conditions Thursday and most of Friday.
Otherwise, look for considerable cloudiness and highs topping out in the lower 70s today.
As we look ahead to the end of May, there really aren’t any significant changes to the overall warmer than normal theme we’ve enjoyed so far this month. Longer range guidance off of the European ensemble continues to support broad scale upper ridging across the Mid West and Ohio Valley and a corresponding warmer than average regime. From a precipitation perspective, the next couple of weeks do look more active compared to the dry start to the month. Case in point, the balance of the upcoming week will be dominated by a stalled frontal boundary. While we’ll have to fine tune exactly where the front stalls, daily chances of showers and thunderstorms (scattered fashion) can be expected.
2.) Overall, a drier air mass will build into central Indiana today and Thursday (cooler, too) before moisture returns to close the week. Scattered showers and embedded thunder are more likely Friday and again late Sunday into Monday.
3.) Looking ahead, we notice a more active pattern is presented off the overnight GEFS model. The heat ridge backs west and sets up a busy “ring of fire” pattern with a northwest flow aloft across our region. We have a ways to go before developing consistency and overall confidence, but this is at least an encouraging sign. The end result, should this come to fruition, would be a significantly wetter open to June.
2.) Sunshine will develop as the day progresses Friday and we’ll notice an increasingly muggy feel through the afternoon and evening. A true taste of summer can be expected as we put a wrap on the work week, including highs in the middle 80s and dew points climbing into the mid and upper 60s.
Also note the tight temperature gradient across the state. That temperature gradient will serve as the focal point between a mostly dry central Indiana through the first half of the weekend and “busier” times across northern parts of the state into the southern Great Lakes region. Locally heavy rain will fall at times with storms for our friends “up north!” We’ll remain very summer-like here into next week.
4.) The balance of next week will run significantly warmer than normal and feature an almost daily threat of showers and thunderstorms. While there will be some “haves and have nots,” most area rain gauges should accumulate 1″ to 2″ of rain by the end of next week.
5.) Speaking of rain, the new European Weeklies in tonight, courtesy of weathermodels.com, also point towards wetter times in our future. This is encouraging as it supports the going idea shown this morning from the JMA Weeklies, CFSv2 Weeklies, and GEFS. Needless to say, despite the recent dry shift, we’re not concerned for long term moisture issues (or lack thereof ;-)).