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With the first week of July in the books, we wanted to touch base on what we believe the remainder of the month has in store. In short, there’s no change to our ongoing idea of a transitional period July 10th through 20th followed by a more pronounced shift to cooler temperatures as we wrap up the month: roughly the 21st through 31st.
In some aspects, the transitional period has already begun- just a couple of days earlier than originally expected. Thankfully, the early month heat has subsided, giving way to a couple days of very refreshing conditions. After a slight rebound in humidity to open the work week, a cold front will slip through central Indiana Tuesday. This will offer up the potential of a thundershower followed by a return of the refreshing easterly flow we’re currently enjoying.
Our latest 7-day forecast reflects this slightly cooler air mass and the associated “pull back” in humidity over the midweek stretch.
Heat and humidity will then build again during the late week period ahead of an approaching cold front that will likely offer up more in the way of scattered to numerous storms next weekend. Note the “ups and downs” over the upcoming 7-10 day period. While sustained heat isn’t expected, there will be a few hot days thrown in the mix for good measure as the overall pattern works through its’ transition.
After the upcoming 10-day stretch, we notice the data becoming more aligned in a manner that will pull the worst of the heat, relative to average, west and put the Mid West and Ohio Valley in a position to turn cooler with more authority, as well as more active to close the month. We have to give a hat tip of the cap to the JMA Weeklies for first seeing this a couple of weeks back, and while we weren’t ready to jump on the idea of a sustained trough setting up over the Great Lakes in what will now be the Week 2-3 time period, the model did see the pull back before the majority of other data.
The new GEFS this afternoon sees something similar:
Again, along with the expected cooler shift, the model is painting a wet pattern emerging as we put the wraps on the month of July. With the developing northwest flow aloft, it’s tough to disagree with this overall more active look.
Enjoy this pleasant early-July weather and have a great weekend! Additional updates will arrive here and on our social media outlets throughout the weekend.
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As attention turns to the 4th of July holiday, there aren’t any changes to the ongoing idea of a significant heat wave gripping the region.
A strong ridge of high pressure will anchor itself over the Ohio Valley during this time frame and help power a big time period of hot and mostly dry weather. It’s the type of pattern that has legs to promote multiple days of highs in the middle to upper 90s across central Indiana. With tropical dew points in place, overnight lows won’t be allowed to fall much below the middle 70s during the height of the heat wave. Heat indices will rise into the lower 100s to near 110° at times.
Take this period of heat seriously. With many area festivals, firework shows, and events going on during the holiday week, it’ll be important to have a means of keeping cool. Simply put, this kind of heat wave doesn’t come around every year (and thank heavens for that).
With the hot dome centered over the Ohio Valley, it’ll really help to limit shower and thunderstorm chances. That’s not to say isolated coverage of cooling thunderstorms won’t occur on occasion during the afternoon and evening, but widespread rain of significance won’t be around during the period. Thankfully, the recent wet pattern and additional storm complexes coming in Tuesday into Wednesday have and will help surface moisture levels. Had we not seen the recent wet shift over the past couple weeks, you could easily tack on an additional 3° to 5°…
For those longing for the cool, crisp days of fall, hang in there. Heck, it’s only 69 days until my beloved Auburn Tigers tee it up and kick it off against the University of Washington… I am one that says “bring it on!”
A cold front will sink south into the Ohio Valley Tuesday afternoon before stalling out through the remainder of the work week and into the weekend.
Rain and storm chances will increase in overall coverage and intensity as we move into Tuesday- particularly during the afternoon hours. With precipitable water values exceeding 2″ at times, locally heavy downpours can be expected.
Despite cooler (still mighty humid) temperatures arriving, the overall pattern won’t change significantly into late week and this weekend. With the frontal boundary draped across the Ohio Valley, periods of showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast. At times, disturbances will track along the boundary and lead to increased coverage of storms. Perhaps Thursday and Friday will serve up the greatest coverage of thunderstorms as a surface wave moves out of the central Plains into the Great Lakes.
The combination of a juicy air mass and a stationary boundary draped overhead spells a flash flood risk. The lack of any sort of overall steering current suggests the potential of thunderstorms that may train over the same communities at times. As mentioned earlier, precipitable water values (PWATS) will approach and exceed 2″ and this will support torrential downpours at times.
Officially, we think the upcoming 7-day period will deal out widespread 2″ to 3″ rainfall totals across central Indiana, but there will be locally heavier amounts where thunderstorms train.
After a dry few days with exceptional heat, the unsettled and cooler pattern, overall, will be welcomed with open arms!