Category Archives: Weather Rambles

Hottest Air (So Far) This Season Arrives Over The Weekend…

A cold front is sinking south as we write this (6:45p) Wednesday evening. A couple of strong to severe storms have developed ahead of the boundary and if you’re reading this from the southern 1/3 of the state, remain weather aware this evening.  Otherwise, a drier regime will arrive behind the boundary and at least temporarily lead to a more refreshing air mass for our Thursday.  Those 50s sure will feel nice out the door Thursday morning!

Lows will fall into the middle 50s for many communities outside of the city Thursday morning.

Unfortunately, the nice and refreshing air won’t last long.  A building hot dome (ridge of high pressure) will center itself over the Ohio Valley this weekend and help promote excessive heat.  It’s not just the high temperatures that will reach dangerous levels (lower to middle 90s), but overnight lows will remain oppressive, as well (low to mid 70s).  Heat indices will surge north of 100° at times.  The ridge will also serve to limit storm chances this weekend- “isolated” coverage at best.

A cold front will drop south early next week and help increase overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms late Monday into Tuesday along with provide relief (at least temporary) from the hot, humid conditions.  Temperatures will settle back closer to average by the middle of next week.

No Comments Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles

New Week Kicks Off With More Storm Chances…

An active, and at times stormy, pattern will remain into the new week.  The setup remains the same and doesn’t need rehashing :-).  While we’ll have to keep a close eye on the potential of morning convection around the area Sunday, thinking here is beginning to shift to Sunday night and predawn Monday as the next best chance of gusty storms and more widespread coverage of beneficial rain.  A warm and muggy air mass will be in place and as vigorous upper level energy interacts with the tropical air, thunderstorms that initiate to our northwest should hold together, if not grow stronger moving into central Indiana.

Upper level energy will track across the state Sunday night and Monday morning.
Dew points are forecast to surge into the lower 70s Sunday night.
Precipitable water values will approach 2″ Sunday night and early Monday morning.
Forecast radar is beginning to pick up on potentially a noisy time of things Sunday night.

A warm and sticky air mass will remain in place through the first half of the work week before a frontal passage offers up a brief bout of slightly drier air for the middle of the week.  Dew points will ease back into comfy range (50s) Wednesday and should also lead to a mostly dry day.

We’ll get to at least briefly enjoy a drier air mass Wednesday.

Humidity will build once again as we move into the latter portions of the work week and with the return of the summer mugginess will come a return of thunderstorm chances (scattered coverage Thursday and Friday).

An early look at next weekend shows general agreement with the GFS and European forecast models: drier air returning along with slightly cooler air.  We’ll keep you updated!

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Dew points, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles, Weekly Outlook

Tropical Feel With Daily Storm Chances…

Slow moving thunderstorms are currently producing small hail and torrential rainfall north of Lafayette (as of 5:45p Thursday).  We have reports of 1″ to as much as 1.5″ of rain falling near Battle Ground in less than an hour.

Eventually these storms should pick up momentum and head off to the southeast later tonight.

This is only the beginning of daily rain and storm chances in a warm and humid air mass through the weekend and on into early next week.  The culprit?  An upper level ridge centered over the southern Plains and “spokes” of energy, or upper level disturbances, rotating around the periphery of the hot dome to our southwest.

An increasingly muggy air mass will take hold of the region as we close the work week, with dew points approaching 70° at times.  The term “air you can wear” comes to mind.  As impulses of energy interact with this tropical air mass, thunderstorms will blossom- particularly in the afternoon and evening hours.

We’ll have to nail down specifics with storm coverage and timing within our short-term forecast products and updates, but each day into early next week will feature coverage of storms across central Indiana.  Future forecast radar products show scattered to numerous storms around Friday evening and again Saturday.  Get used to this look.

Looking down the road, a “sticky” summer feel will remain intact through next week, but changes are brewing in the longer range.  These changes would support a cooler regime developing just past mid-June (in the 10 to 15 day time frame).  While the duration is up for debate, it’ll be nice for at least a few days of cooler air…

No Comments AG Report, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles

Telling Time Ahead…

Models have been suggesting that the middle of June (roughly June 10th-20th) would turn increasingly stormy and wet.  The JMA led the charge several weeks ago with this idea.  The GFS and it’s ensemble data has, for the most part, been on board with this line of thought, as well.  On the flip side, more times than not, the powerful European forecast model has suggested we shouldn’t “hold our breath” on the prospects of a wetter shift.  With the target period now only a few days out, it’s time to “put up or shut up.”  I was chatting with a good friend of mine Tuesday evening concerning the recent dry conditions for the heart of central Indiana and that we’re heading into a “telling time” starting as early as this weekend.  Should the wetter scenarios pan out I think it’ll be enough to keep the worst of the heat and droughty conditions west of Indiana for the balance of the summer.  (Please know that’s not us saying it won’t turn dry at times, but instead just that the worst of the heat and dry conditions would be placed to our west).

While the all-important surface results differ, it’s encouraging to see that at least from the perspective of an upper air pattern standpoint, both models are rather similar.  More significantly, this pattern would support rounds of thunderstorm complexes tracking southeast into the Ohio Valley this weekend and into early next week.

While impossible to nail down exactly which back yards would see beneficial rainfall, it would be an overall more conducive pattern for widespread showers and thunderstorms for our general region.  We’ll have to lean on high resolution, shorter-term models as time draws closer to gain more insight around more precise timing and track details, but we continue to trend our forecast wetter Friday through Sunday than we’ve been over the past couple weeks- Alberto remnants excluded.

Come this time next week we’ll have a much better idea of where the balance of the summer is going, locally.  Should beneficial rains fall, it’s still not too late in the season to have a significant longer term impact on summer as a whole.  In fact, if we can get water in the ground, it would be easier to buy into the cooler regime the models are currently showing late-June.  At the very least, an interesting weekend lies ahead…

2 Comments AG Report, Drought, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles

Timing Out Weekend Rain And Storms; Looking Towards Memorial Day Weekend…

Scattered showers and a couple of rumbles of thunder will be most numerous this morning into the early-mid afternoon hours before briefly drier conditions build in this evening.

Our attention will then shift to the potential of strong thunderstorms late Sunday.  Higher resolution guidance suggests storms will begin to rumble into western Indiana late Sunday evening (around 9p to 10p) before tracking east into the overnight hours.

With a stalled front nearby, shower and thunderstorm chances will remain in our forecast into the middle of the week.  While it won’t rain the entire time, unsettled conditions will remain into Wednesday before high pressure provides drier conditions Thursday and most of Friday.

Thinking as of now is that a new storm system will approach next weekend, which would deliver a return of unsettled weather late Friday, continuing through the all-important Memorial Day and Indy 500 weekend.  We obviously still have plenty of time to watch things unfold over the upcoming week and will get more specific as time grows closer.

A new storm system could result in an unsettled Memorial Day weekend around these parts.

From a temperature perspective, the upcoming 6-10 days will run well above average, maintaining the warm May theme.  Looking out further, there’s the possibility that the last couple of days of the month could trend cooler behind the Memorial Day weekend storm.

No Comments Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Indy 500, Memorial Day weekend, Rain, Spring, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles