Updated 01.31.21 @ 9:35p
As we head into the last month of meteorological winter, there are growing signs we’ll have to contend with some of the most significant cold so far this season. Add in the fact that the pattern drivers are more aligned to continue the recent active times and things could get quite interesting in the weeks ahead.
For the first time this winter, it appears as if the teleconnections will combine to favor not only a continuation of the active storm track, but also argue for the likelihood of more sustained cold air (especially compared to Dec. and Jan.).
Note how the latest CFSv2 monthly product continues to shift colder for February.
We believe the AO, NAO, PNA, and EPO will remain negative through the majority of the month. Getting the EPO negative would be a big deal and go a long way in supporting the idea cold would be able to stick around with more staying power relative to normal. (The threat of significant arctic air getting into the mix during the 1st half of the month is a growing concern). The negative PNA would favor southern ridging and help to direct storms further north than what we would see otherwise- especially given the strongly negative AO and corresponding blocking.
Note the how the European ensemble shows the colder anomalies overspreading the country through the first couple weeks of February.
Given what we’ve discussed above including the MJO movement, this has merit.
The busy pattern will produce frequent storm systems through our general neck of the woods and with the more widespread cold around, I think we’re looking at multiple winter weather threats of significance through the month. Needless to say, I believe the month should produce above normal snowfall (average at IND is 6.5″ for Feb.).
Here’s our monthly outlook, including temperatures that should average 1° to 3° below normal with 1″ to 2″ above normal precipitation in Indianapolis, itself.
Winter weather enthusiast? Giddy up!