August 2019 archive

Aug 23

The Shift Begins…

Every year is a bit different, but typically at some point between late August and early September we get that 1st cold frontal passage that serves as a reminder a new season is upon us. This year, that frontal passage is today.

As the front continues to sink south, we’ll notice increasingly dry air building in to close the work week. Dew points will fall into the 50s by this afternoon.

Cooler air will accommodate the drier air mass. Lows across central Indiana will fall into the lower and middle 50s (not totally out of the question a few communities fall into the 40s) both Saturday and Sunday mornings.

Dry conditions will prevail today and Saturday, and most of Sunday, too, for that matter. Our next storm system will lead to an increase in cloudiness Sunday PM and a couple of showers could follow. More widespread rain is anticipated to arrive Monday into Tuesday, and could be accompanied by a few storms. Early indications would suggest we’re looking at 0.50″ to 1″ with this system.

This will be ahead of a stronger trough that will serve to reinforce the unseasonably cool air as we head into the Labor Day weekend. If you’re a fan of this weekend, you’ll absolutely love what’s on tap next weekend (shave off a few more degrees both for lows and highs)!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/23/the-shift-begins/

Aug 22

VIDEO: Busy Pattern; One-Two Punch Of Unseasonably Cool Air Results In An October-Like Feel Labor Day Weekend…

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Aug 21

VIDEO: Active Pattern; Fall-Like Cold Front Sweeps Through Late Next Week…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/21/video-active-pattern-fall-like-cold-front-sweeps-through-late-next-week/

Aug 20

Meteorological Fall Set To Kick-Off Cooler Than Normal?

With only (11) days left in meteorological summer, thoughts continue to focus more on the upcoming fall season.

This was a photo I snapped in the Eagle Creek community back in October of 2013!

While fall foliage is still 5-6 weeks away from “prime time,” medium range computer models continue to suggest the new season will kick off on an unseasonably cool note.

Meteorological fall begins Sept. 1st and runs through the end of November. With that said, you don’t need me to tell you that Labor Day can still produce “summer-like” heat around these parts. On average across central Indiana, we’d expect Labor Day weekend to produce highs in the lower 80s and lows in the lower 60s.

That might be a different story this year as a negative EPO pattern dominates. The end result will likely feature a rather anomalous trough digging into our portion of the country to open up the new season. This is supported with solid agreement between the GEFS and EPS as shown below:

This will likely result in temperatures around 10 degrees (F) below average and most certainly serve as notice that a new season is upon us.

Now will this be an official end to summer-like warmth? Likely not, as there are reasons to believe unseasonably warm weather will build back into the region behind this cool blast. While we don’t want to use this post as our official fall outlook, despite it likely feeling very much like fall as the 1st full weekend of college football kicks off, we think there’s likely more warmth in the tank before we can signal the “all clear” on Summer ’19…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/20/meteorological-fall-set-to-kick-off-cooler-than-normal/

Aug 20

VIDEO: Severe Storm Threat Later This Afternoon; Reinforcing Cool Period Around Labor Day, And More Winter Chatter…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/20/video-severe-storm-threat-later-this-afternoon-reinforcing-cool-period-around-labor-day-and-more-winter-chatter/

Aug 19

VIDEO: Additional Storm Chances Before A Gorgeous Late Week-Weekend…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/19/video-additional-storm-chances-before-a-gorgeous-late-week-weekend/

Aug 18

New Thoughts Around The Upcoming Winter…

While we’re still a couple months away from debuting our official annual Winter Outlook, we’re deep in research mode for what the ’19-’20 winter season may produce across central Indiana.

The very warm northeast Pacific sea surface temperatures are of the upmost interest.

Note how the northeast PAC waters continue to warm:

These warm waters continue to “raise an eyebrow” and will have likely have a rather significant say in what ultimately takes place later this winter across a widespread portion of the country.

We don’t have to think too terribly far back to the infamous ’13-’14 winter and what the “warm blob” produced:

Image courtesy of iflscience.com

Some of the new climate models are going to a similar look at 500mb for the upcoming winter season:

In fact, one could easily make the argument with such anomalous ridgBing across western Canada, there should be more of a downstream effect (more of a significant trough across the eastern portion of the country).

While there will be many more factors that we’ll have to build into the upcoming winter outlook, the warm NE PAC waters most certainly argue (and strongly at that) for a rather persistent western Canada/ NW Conus ridge and more of an eastern trough…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/18/new-thoughts-around-the-upcoming-winter/

Aug 18

Weekly AG And Severe Weather Update…

Forecast period: 08.18.19 through 08.25.19

7-Day Precipitation: Rainfall is expected to run near average through the forecast period. We’re forecasting widespread 0.50″ to 1″ amounts to be common across central Indiana, but there will be locally heavier amounts where strong storms track.

7-Day Temperature Outlook: Temperatures are expected to run near average through the forecast period- balanced by a warmer than normal open to the period and cooler than average close.

Severe Weather Outlook: An active weather pattern will remain with us through the 1st half of the new week. In addition to the threat of severe weather today, we’re also closely monitoring the potential of strong to severe storms Tuesday night-Wednesday as a cold front slices into the hot and humid air mass in place. The pattern will turn much calmer once we get to the 2nd half of the week as cooler, drier air builds in.

Day 1: After a quiet start to our Sunday, a line of thunderstorms is expected to form to our northwest this afternoon. That line should move southeast and begin to impact central Indiana late afternoon into the early evening hours. Some of the stronger cells will promote the chance of large hail and damaging straight line winds.

Day 3: Scattered thunderstorms will remain in the forecast Monday, but widespread severe weather isn’t anticipated. As we look ahead, a cold front will slice into the hot and humid air mass in place across the Ohio Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday. As you might expect, the clash of air masses between significantly cooler and drier air behind the boundary will lead to scattered to numerous storms during the transition. Accordingly, we’ll need to remain on guard for the threat of additional severe weather (threats similar to that of today) during that time frame before much quieter, calmer weather takes over Wednesday night into next weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/18/weekly-ag-and-severe-weather-update-4/

Aug 17

VIDEO: Weekend Update And More EPO Talk…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/17/video-weekend-update-and-more-epo-talk/

Aug 16

VIDEO: Times, They Are A Changin’…

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