June 2019 archive

Jun 09

Localized Bands Of Flooding Rain Possible This Afternoon-Evening…

An upper level low will have control of our weather today. We’re seeing widespread mostly light rain this morning and that will begin to diminish as we move into the late morning and early afternoon.

We’ll then likely see a few breaks in the cloud cover and that will serve to provide just enough energy to help showers and thunderstorms redevelop by mid to late afternoon. With a juicy air mass in place (precipitable water values will exceed 2″ in spots), locally heavy rain is likely.

With weak steering flows in place this afternoon and evening, the concern we have is that localized bands of this heavy rain/ embedded thunder will “train” over the same areas, potentially leading to flash flooding in localized spots across central Indiana.

We expect these south-to-north moving bands of rain to begin to organize towards the 4p to 6p time frame, continuing into the evening and nighttime hours. Where the heavier rain bands organize, a quick 2″ to 3″ of rain is likely this evening.

More around the #AGwx report for the upcoming week will be posted later this morning!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/09/localized-bands-of-flooding-rain-possible-this-afternoon-evening/

Jun 08

Rain Coverage Increases Over The Weekend; Blast Of Fall-Like Air Next Week…

Upper level energy will get pulled north into the Ohio Valley region over the weekend. This will result in an increase in cloudiness and better coverage of showers at times this afternoon through

As we time things out, light showers will move northwest (opposite of the usual direction) across the region beginning this afternoon, but more concentrated heavier downpours are a good bet tonight into Sunday morning.

Forecast radar 5a Sunday shows widespread rain across central Indiana.

We’ll likely get into some drier conditions Sunday afternoon, but redevelopment of scattered showers and thunderstorms is likely by evening.

Forecast radar 7p Sunday shows scattered thunderstorms in place.

While there will be plenty of dry time this weekend, do expect periods of wet weather at times. Everyone won’t see heavy rain (0.5″ to 1″ on average for weekend totals), but with this kind of system, there will likely be heavier bands of rain over the next couple of days. High resolution guidance is likely picking up on this, understanding it’s nearly impossible to pinpoint with certainty where those heavier rain bands set up.

Drier air will arrive on the scene early in the work week with increasing sunshine anticipated Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures will run well below average for midweek with reinforcing unseasonably cool air blowing into town to wrap up the work week (40s still a good bet with highs only in the 60s).

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/08/rain-coverage-increases-over-the-weekend-blast-of-fall-like-air-next-week/

Jun 07

Mid June Or Early October?

Average temperatures in mid-June feature highs in the lower 80s and lows in the lower 60s. As we look ahead to the 2019 version, it’s safe to say we’ll run well below those numbers and closer to what we’d expect in early October (when average temperatures are in the lower 70s for highs and around 50° for a low).

A powerful upper level system and associated trough will lead to the potential of showers and thunderstorms the middle of next week ahead of the cooler push of air late week.

As we look longer term, the pattern is one that just doesn’t appear to offer up any sort of serious heat (even into July). Things look unseasonably refreshing around these parts as we approach the heart of meteorological summer.

*We’re on the road through Tuesday and posts will be a bit “off schedule” over the next few days. We will have a more detailed short term update on weekend rain chances later this evening.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/07/mid-june-or-early-october/

Jun 06

Pleasant Stretch Of Weather; Unseasonably Cool Temperatures Dialed Up Next Week…

After an active evening across central Indiana on Wednesday, I’m excited to say the upcoming 48-72 hours looks much calmer overall. All of the “action” will be off to our south the next couple of days with mixed clouds and sun and seasonable warmth dominating across central Indiana.

Sunshine returns across central Indiana today and will remain in place as we close out the work week.

Highs today and Friday will top out in the lower to middle 80s.

While we’ll remain dry across central Indiana to wrap up the work week, better chances of showers will remain across far southern portions of the state (closer to the influence of the upper low swirling across the southern Plains and into the Ark-La-Tex region tomorrow).

The upper low will move closer to the region over the weekend and result in better shower coverage as we move into Saturday and Sunday (still not looking at wash-outs either day).

An average of various computer models prints out rainfall amounts between 0.50″ and 1″ in the Saturday through Monday time period.

High pressure will build in Tuesday and Wednesday, supplying a return of dry conditions.

A cold front and associated area of low pressure will approach Thursday and this will serve to deliver a round of scattered thunderstorms as we make the transition towards next weekend. A few gusty storms are a good bet Thursday with this frontal system. With this being a week out, we’ll continue to keep an eye on things and be able to get more specific with time. Perhaps as big of a story will be the unseasonably cool air that will blow into town behind the front to close next week. Lows in the 40s and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s seem likely and a far cry from what we’d normally expect for mid-June.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/06/pleasant-stretch-of-weather-unseasonably-cool-temperatures-dialed-up-next-week/

Jun 05

VIDEO: Damaging Wind Potential With Storms This Evening; Quiet Close To The Week…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/05/video-damaging-wind-potential-with-storms-this-evening-quiet-close-to-the-week/

Jun 05

Long Range Update: Unseasonably Refreshing Pattern Set To Rule The Day…

A few days into June, Indianapolis is running half a degree below normal and 0.57″ below normal in the rainfall department.

Coolest anomalies have been focused over the Great Lakes region. A good portion of the region is running below average early on this month in the rainfall department, with the exception being the eastern Great Lakes.

As we look ahead, the MJO is forecast to move through Phases 3 and 4 with its eyes set on Phase 5 late month.

The relative “transient” warmth now lines up perfectly with Phase 3, but note the cooler pattern that Phase(s) 4-5 typically delivers.

As a side note, there’s reason to believe this rather hyper MJO will continue, carrying us into the cooler Phases 6-8 as we move into the heart of the summer.

To no surprise, the medium and long range guidance is going towards a cooler than normal and unseasonably refreshing look as we move through the mid month period and into late June.

The Climate Forecast System agrees:

As for rainfall, we’ll use our short-term updates to handle the Weeks 1-2 period, but as we look ahead to mid-June, the pattern is expected to feature above normal rainfall across the Mid West and into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/05/long-range-update-unseasonably-refreshing-pattern-set-to-rule-the-day/

Jun 04

Evening All-Access Video: It’s Not All “Doom And Gloom;” Updated Thoughts Around Late Week-This Weekend…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/04/evening-all-access-video-its-not-all-doom-and-gloom-updated-thoughts-around-late-week-this-weekend/

Jun 04

VIDEO: Detailed Look At The Pattern And Associated Heavy Rain Timing Into Early Next Week…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/04/video-detailed-look-at-the-pattern-and-associated-heavy-rain-timing-into-early-next-week/

Jun 03

VIDEO: Unsettled Weather Returns After A Pleasant Open To The Work Week…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/03/video-unsettled-weather-returns-after-a-pleasant-open-to-the-work-week/

Jun 02

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Forecast Period: 06.02.19 through 06.09.19

7-Day Precipitation: Rainfall is expected to run above average through the period.

7-Day Temperatures: Above normal temperatures are expected through the period, mostly thanks to warmer than average overnight lows.

Severe Weather: We’ll remain quiet through early week before things begin to turn more active by midweek. The Storm Prediction Center is including the southern half of the region in a risk of severe weather by Wednesday (noted in the Day 4 Outlook below).

Summary: After a pleasant and quiet open to the period (today and Monday), thinks will begin to turn more active thereafter. Initially, it’ll take some time to “moisten” things up on Tuesday, but at the very least, light to moderate rain should work across central Indiana late Tuesday morning into the afternoon. Things will be fully saturated by Wednesday and periods of more concentrated rain, occasionally heavy, can be expected into the weekend. Unfortunately, guidance is in rather remarkable agreement of widespread 1.5″ to 2.5″ with locally heavier totals over the upcoming 7-day period.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/02/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook/

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