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June 2019 archive
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/16/video-a-very-wet-week-is-on-deck-early-july-thoughts/
Jun 15
VIDEO: Classic Pattern For A Significant Flood Event…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/15/video-classic-pattern-for-a-significant-flood-event/
Jun 14
Friday Evening All-Access Video Update: A Wet, Stormy Weekend Awaits…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/14/friday-evening-all-access-video-update-a-wet-stormy-weekend-awaits/
Jun 14
Fall-Like Conditions Set To Be Replaced By Periods Of Heavy Rain…
Temperatures are in the 40s area-wide this morning across central Indiana. Speaking of the 40s, they extend all the way south into the north Georgia mountains as we start our Friday. (Hard to believe for mid June). Widespread below normal temperatures continue to dominate the eastern portion of the country.
High pressure will remain in control of our weather today and help feature dry conditions with plentiful sunshine and pleasant temperatures. Highs today will top out in the middle 70s after the crisp start to the day.
Unfortunately, the cool, dry conditions will quickly give way to an increasingly moist airmass overnight into Saturday morning and rain will follow. The reason? We’ll be on the backside of the area of high pressure with a southwest flow aloft helping transport moisture northeast into the Ohio Valley. At the same time, a series of warm fronts will pass over the weekend, featuring periods of more concentrated storms and associated heavy rainfall. Finally, a cold front will push south Sunday into Monday before stalling out just south of our area Tuesday.
While this may provide a briefly drier period Tuesday, we’ll have to contend with periods of heavy rain and storms before hand. More specific around timing, we think rain may begin as early as 11p to midnight this evening before becoming more widespread and heavier Saturday morning. We’d suggest having a Plan B for outdoor activities this weekend as more time than not, it’ll likely be raining across central Indiana.
As mentioned earlier, we’ll replace the cool, dry air mass with more of a tropical feel this weekend and at times precipitable water values (PWATs) will approach 2″. This raises our confidence in the potential and likelihood of heavy rainfall.
Widespread 1″ to 2″ rainfall totals can be expected across central Indiana this weekend, with locally heavier amounts. After a briefly drier period Tuesday, rain will return by the middle of next week. Unfortunately, widespread 7-day totals (ending Thursday night) will likely be in the 2.5″ to 3.5″ range across central Indiana…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/14/fall-like-conditions-set-to-be-replaced-by-periods-of-heavy-rain/
Jun 13
VIDEO: Fall-Like Close To The Work Week Gives Way To An Unsettled Weekend; Reviewing Updated Data Into The Fall…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/13/video-fall-like-close-to-the-work-week-gives-way-to-an-unsettled-weekend-reviewing-updated-data-into-the-fall/
Jun 12
VIDEO: Evening Thoughts Around The Pattern Into Late June-Early July…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/12/video-evening-thoughts-around-the-pattern-into-late-june-early-july/
Jun 12
VIDEO: Reinforcing Fall-Like Air Blows Into Town; Pattern Features A Return Of Heavy Rain Longer Term…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/12/video-reinforcing-fall-like-air-blows-into-town-pattern-features-a-return-of-heavy-rain-longer-term/
Jun 11
Unseasonably Cool; Talking Rain Chances Into Early Next Week…
We’re enjoying unseasonably cool and refreshing air this morning (to the tune of 10-15 degrees below average across central Indiana). The extent of the refreshingly cool air is impressive- spanning all the way into northern TX and parts of OK this morning!
A gorgeous day is on tap with plentiful sunshine and low humidity. Unfortunately, rain still appears to return to the picture on Wednesday. Scattered showers will be most numerous Wednesday afternoon, continuing into Thursday morning. Rainfall should average between 0.10″ to 0.25″ for most central Indiana rain gauges with a few heavier totals across eastern areas.
The cold front and upper level energy associated for delivering the Wednesday rain will swing through here early Thursday, resulting in a gusty northwesterly wind and fall-like air through the day. Highs will only top out in the mid-upper 60s and lows Friday morning will fall into the upper 40s.
High pressure will remain in control of our weather to close the work week, but as we’ve grown all too accustomed to over the past couple of months, we don’t expect prolonged dry time. Instead, our weather will turn unsettled yet again over the weekend into early next week. With a moist southwesterly air flow returning, periods of locally heavy rain can be expected in this setup.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/11/unseasonably-cool-talking-rain-chances-into-early-next-week/
Jun 10
Cool Now, But What About Late-June?
Unseasonably cool, almost fall-like, weather will dominate our area this week, but what awaits as we move into the latter part of June?
We continue to see a highly amplified MJO and it’s forecast to swing into Phases 4-5 in the coming weeks.
Neither of these phases argues for any sort of significant or long-lasting warmth anytime over the next few weeks across our immediate region.
To no surprise, the latest long range data continues to indicate an overall seasonable to cooler than average theme to close out the month of June. The European ensemble agrees.
What about precipitation as we progress through the last couple weeks of the month? Phase 4 remains wet before things take on a drier theme during Phase 5. (It’s important to note though that if the MJO continues the overall high amplitude, unfortunately we would head into the wetter Phases 6-7 as we head towards the mid way point of summer).
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/10/cool-now-but-what-about-late-june/
Jun 10
Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…
Forecast period: 06.10.19 through 06.17.19
7-Day Precipitation: Rainfall is expected to run above average through the period.
7-Day Temperature Outlook: Temperatures are expected to run well below average through the period.
Severe Outlook: Widespread severe weather isn’t anticipated through the period. With that said, we’ll keep an eye on the potential of a couple gusty storms Wednesday as vigorous upper level energy and an associated cold front blow through the state.
Summary: After a wet close to the weekend, drier air will return today and Tuesday, along with increasing sunshine from west to east by this afternoon. Our next system of note arrives Wednesday in the form of a cold front. This will serve to reinforce the unseasonably cool air in place across the region for late week, but also may provide a few gusty storms as it moves through the area. Shower coverage will be scattered to widespread Wednesday. Another system will approach over the weekend with unsettled conditions expected both Saturday and Sunday.
While temperatures will run below normal throughout the period, the coolest day of the week appears to be Thursday with highs only in the mid to upper 60s and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/10/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-2/