You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
June 2019 archive
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/22/video-window-opens-for-more-traditional-summer-weather/
Jun 21
VIDEO: Timing Out Storm Impacts This Weekend; More July Chatter…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/21/video-timing-out-storm-impacts-this-weekend-more-july-chatter/
Jun 20
Thursday Evening Rambles: Stormy Weekend On Deck; New European Weeklies Are In…
I. Briefly Refreshing: A badly needed dry stretch of weather will be short-lived- 24 hours at most for the majority of central Indiana, and that’s if you’re lucky. This evening, however, will offer a much drier brand of air building into the area along with dew points and temperatures falling into the middle to upper 50s. Areas of dense fog will be possible Friday morning in spots.
II. Tropical Air Returns: Just as soon as the drier air mass arrives, it’ll depart. We’ll go from morning dew points in the middle 50s Friday to upper 60s by evening and into the lower 70s by Saturday evening. It’s safe to the say that once to Saturday afternoon the humidity will be back with authority.
III. Warm Front Provides Focus For Storms: A warm front will lift northeast over the weekend and serve focus for hefty storms clusters to track in a northwest to southeast fashion. The first of a series of these clusters will likely arrive into the state late Friday morning or early afternoon and most likely affect the southwest portion of the state.
We believe the drier air mass will initially serve to shunt the storms to our southwest, but as an increasingly moist air mass lifts north, better chances of storms will return Friday evening into Saturday morning. This is a tough pattern to get specific with timing these storms clusters, but it’s safe to say central Indiana will come under the gun for multiple rounds of storms through the weekend and into early next week.
IV. Warmer; Drier Trends: While we can’t completely eliminate rain and storm chances, the trends continue to move towards a warmer and drier pattern building in here in the medium range (6-10 day period, or the overall period through the middle of next week into next weekend) as an upper level ridge builds over the Ohio Valley.
Enjoy while we have it as we continue to believe the pattern will return to an overall cooler and wetter theme for the bulk of July.
V. NEW European Weeklies: The updated European Weeklies are in and while they keep a warmer than normal pattern in place through the first 1/3 of July, they are bullish on signaling the return of a cooler regime around or shortly after the 10th. After a drier theme early July, wetter conditions are also signaled on the updated model data for the 2nd half of the month.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/20/thursday-evening-rambles-stormy-weekend-on-deck-new-european-weeklies-are-in/
Jun 20
VIDEO: Turning Drier And Cooler This Afternoon; Storms Return This Weekend And Reviewing The NEW JMA Weeklies…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/20/video-turning-drier-and-cooler-this-afternoon-storms-return-this-weekend-and-reviewing-the-new-jma-weeklies/
Jun 19
Concerned For Significant Flooding Tonight Into Thursday…
The day is opening dry across central Indiana (and sunny for some), but another heavy rain event looms by the end of the day. The culprit? A stalled front remains draped across central Indiana and a surface wave will move along this boundary this afternoon into tonight. A “juicy” airmass will remain intact across the region with precipitable water values topping out at 2.5″ across the southern half of the state. This will promote any shower or thunderstorm that develops to drop very heavy rainfall in a short period of time (1″ to 2″ per hour at times).
As the surface wave interacts with the tropical air mass in place, widespread showers and thunderstorms will blossom across the region through the afternoon into tonight. Rain will continue into Thursday afternoon.
We’re still also concerned for severe weather this afternoon and evening, including a couple of tornadoes across the southern half of the state.
By the time the rain comes to an end Thursday evening, widespread 2″ to 4″ can be expected across the heart of the state, including Indianapolis, itself.
If that’s not enough, heavy rain and thunderstorms will return late Friday and continue in an “off and on” fashion straight through the weekend.
Unfortunately, some central Indiana rain gauges can expect to pick up an additional 5″+ of rain between this afternoon and next Tuesday…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/19/concerned-for-significant-flooding-tonight-into-thursday/
Jun 18
VIDEO: Latest Thoughts On Tomorrow’s Severe Potential And Looking Ahead Through The 1st Half Of July…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/18/video-latest-thoughts-on-tomorrows-severe-potential-and-looking-ahead-through-the-1st-half-of-july/
Jun 18
VIDEO: Severe Threat Continues To Increase Wednesday PM…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/18/video-severe-threat-continues-to-increase-wednesday-pm/
Jun 17
Only Going To Get Worse Before It Gets Better…
The pattern into the medium range period continues to look like a broken record: excessively wet. Unfortunately, flood and flash flood warnings will continue to likely be issued over the next 7-10 days on an almost daily basis for at least portions of the immediate viewing area.
Current Flash Flood Guidance can be found below:
In most cases across central and southern Indiana, we’re only talking about rainfall of 1″ to 1.5″ in an hour’s timeframe that will cause flash flooding. 3 hour guidance is in the 1.5″ to 2″ range.
Tuesday will feature less overall aerial coverage of showers and thunderstorms (widely scattered) as compared to the past few days. However, we’re tracking (2) surface waves that will result in more widespread heavy rain and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Thursday and again over the weekend into early next week with a moisture-rich, tropical southwesterly air flow in place.
As mentioned above, severe weather is possible Wednesday afternoon and evening as vigorous upper level energy accompanies the surface wave scooting across the lower OHV. This will warrant our attention over the upcoming 48 hours and will likely lead to the Storm Prediction Center expanding the current Slight Risk further northwest with future updates.
Fingers are still crossed for briefly drier conditions Friday before we reload the moisture with a persistent southwesterly air flow this weekend. This will promote additional concerns for heavy rainfall over the weekend.
At times, this moist southwest flow will help precipitable water values exceed 2″. Needless to say, concern will remain very high for additional flooding problems over the weekend into early next week.
Widespread additional rainfall of 2.5″ to 3.5″ is a good bet with locally heavier amounts over the upcoming week.
More on the long range pattern into the Weeks 3/4 period tomorrow!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/17/only-going-to-get-worse-before-it-gets-better/
Jun 17
VIDEO: A New Week; Same Ole Weather Pattern. Discussing The Pattern Evolution Into July…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/17/video-a-new-week-same-ole-weather-pattern-discussing-the-pattern-evolution-into-july/
Jun 16
Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…
Forecast period: 06.17.19 through 06.24.19
7-Day Precipitation: Rainfall is expected to run above average through the period.
7-Day Temperature Outlook: Temperatures are expected to run slightly above normal through the period- mostly thanks to the warmer than average overnight lows with all of the expected clouds/ moisture present.
Severe Outlook: We’ll remain on guard for the potential of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms through the period- likely most numerous during times where surface waves interact with nearby warm fronts (case in point, Saturday). Most common severe weather reports will likely come from large hail and damaging winds, but a tornado or two can’t be ruled out during the period- especially with a couple of warm fronts draped across central Indiana.
Busiest severe weather days over the upcoming week will likely include Monday, Wednesday into Thursday, and next Saturday into Sunday.
Summary: An active weather pattern will remain in place across central Indiana through the upcoming forecast period. A blend of latest computer models puts down an additional 4.1″ across a widespread portion of central Indiana and most of that will fall within the upcoming 7 days. There will be locally heavier totals. Without trying to “sensationalize” the upcoming forecast period, flood and flash flood events will remain in place- and at times may become significant.
As mentioned earlier this morning, the hope here is that we can squeeze out a 2-3 day dry period late June before a stormy pattern returns for early July. Fingers are crossed…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/16/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-3/