April 2019 archive

Apr 05

April Turns Active: Timing Out Storms…

A series of storm systems will impact the OHV region over the next couple of weeks. As we look at the overall pattern, a negative NAO will begin to have significant influence on the overall pattern through mid-April. We note the mean trough position settles into the western portion of the country with a reflection of a southeast ridge in place. Accordingly, the Ohio Valley will find itself in the middle of the primary storm track as we progress through the middle part of the month.

With said pattern in place, precipitation is expected to run above, to significantly above, normal during the mid-month stretch.

After a gorgeous Saturday (sunshine and lower 70s), the first of a series of storm systems will begin to impact the region Sunday. A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across southern and central IN- especially during the afternoon.

Thereafter, additional dates to monitor for storm impacts include the following:

Wednesday night and Thursday- April 10th and 11th

Saturday and Sunday- April 13th and 14th

Wednesday and Thursday- April 17th and 18th

We’ll be able to get much more specific with these individual storms as we get closer! An updated video will hit this evening looking closer at Sunday’s storm threat. In the meantime, get set to kick off the weekend with superb weather!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/05/april-turns-active/

Apr 04

Pattern Returns To An Active Time Of Things…

One word to describe the mid-April weather pattern? ACTIVE. Tonight’s medium and long range video update dives in further…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/04/pattern-returns-to-an-active-time-of-things/

Apr 04

Short-Medium Range Update: More On The Negative NAO…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/04/short-medium-range-update-more-on-the-negative-nao/

Apr 03

Timing Out When Rain Returns And Looking Ahead To A Beautiful Close To The Week; More On The Negative NAO…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/03/timing-out-when-rain-returns-and-looking-ahead-to-a-beautiful-close-to-the-week-more-on-the-negative-nao/

Apr 02

Negative NAO Set To Present Mid-Month Headaches…

In case you missed it, you can find our April Outlook here. We want to ensure we’re very transparent and never shy away from the products we put out there. With that said, as difficult as it can be at times, it’s critically important that adjustments are made when necessary. The fact of the matter is that medium and long range modeling has had a glaring error since late winter and early spring. First, it was the EPO and now the NAO that appear to create all sorts of chaos in the medium to longer range period.

We note the NAO (or North Atlantic Oscillation) is set to drop to as negative of levels since January and some data would suggest we’re going to go even lower.

A negative NAO in April would “normally” lead to this kind of temperature pattern:

The normally reliable European model had this kind of pattern for mid-April only a couple of days ago:

Today, we’re talking about this kind of pattern for the exact same time period:

That’s a “night and day” difference. The reason? The model is beginning to catch on to the significant negative NAO developing. Accordingly, latest data delivers incredible high latitude blocking and subsequent cooler anomalies across a large portion of the Lower 48 for the mid-month period. (Note how close the below temperature pattern in the Day 10-15 time frame is to the analog a few images above. Remarkable stuff).

This time of year won’t result in sustained colder than normal conditions and transient warmth will make itself felt from time to time, but it’s a far cry from the sustained warmth originally expected for mid-April.

As we reflect back to the struggles long range models had with the negative EPO and now flip the page forward to the negative NAO problems, it certainly leads to lower than normal confidence in long range data and leads to a “cause for pause” as we put together monthly/ seasonal data into the upcoming late spring and summer months. Transitional seasons (spring and fall) can always be fickle, but some of the issues with the drivers this spring are in a different league.

Enjoy the “spring fling” that will develop late this week and weekend. The warmest air of the year is still on deck.

Longer term, well sometimes you have to throw ideas that have been made of long hours and hard work in the trash and start over from scratch…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/02/negative-nao-set-to-present-mid-month-headaches/

Apr 02

Tuesday Morning Video: Timing Out Storm Systems And Eyeing A Beauty Of A Saturday…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/02/tuesday-morning-video-timing-out-storm-systems-and-eyeing-a-beauty-of-a-saturday/

Apr 01

Here Comes Spring: More Of A Substantial Warm-Up On Deck…

After a cold March (Indianapolis ran 4 F below average) and open to April, changes are on the horizon.

Coldest anomalies were located across the northern Rockies into the Plains during March with only the Four Corners and southern Florida escaping the unseasonably cold conditions.

Before going further, March was always expected to be the coldest month (relative to average) of meteorological spring. For new subscribers, you can find our Spring Outlook here.

Looking ahead, note the rather dramatic shift that takes place at 500mb from the immediate term (image 1) to the medium range (or 6-10 day) period in image 2 below. Say goodbye to that AK ridge and subsequent downstream trough/ associated cooler than normal conditions.

This will likely result in the warmest air since October by the time we get to this weekend. High temperatures into the lower to middle 70s are a good bet this weekend. Saturday looks mostly dry before a few t-storms enter into the picture by Sunday.

As we look forward, additional unsettled conditions are a good bet early next week, along with seasonable to warmer than average conditions continuing.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/01/here-comes-spring-more-of-a-substantial-warm-up-on-deck/

Apr 01

Improvements On The Way…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/01/improvements-on-the-way/

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