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April 17, 2019 archive
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/17/video-timing-out-the-heavy-rain-event-to-close-the-work-week/
Apr 17
Heavy Rain On Deck; Big Model Differences Early Next Week…
As we rumble into the 2nd half of April, it’s apparent the month will take on an increasingly wet look. (So far, the 2019 version is running slightly drier than normal).
Today will take on a warm and increasingly humid feel as the afternoon and evening wears on. A couple of light showers are possible this afternoon and evening, but most of the day will remain free of any rain.
A cold front will draw closer to the region on Thursday and this will lead to much better chances of more organized shower and thunderstorm activity.
The first round of storms is expected to arrive around the morning rush hour Thursday and a couple of stronger cells are possible, including vivid lightning and heavy downpours.
Overall, Thursday is looking unsettled, with periods of showers and embedded thunder continuing through the day. A couple of stronger storms are possible, but the morning convection will greatly limit the potential of a more widespread and significant severe weather event in the afternoon.
By the time all is said and done early Friday morning, 2″ to 2.5″ of rain can be expected across central and southern Indiana.
Cooler air will flow in here for Good Friday and Saturday, but improvements can be expected for Easter Sunday, including much warmer temperatures (highs will rebound into the mid 70s Easter afternoon)!
Attention then shifts to rather significant model differences through the early portions of the work week. The primary reason? Differences with the specific placement of a “backdoor” cold front that will lie across the Ohio Valley through the first half of the work week. Shower and thunderstorm chances will return Monday in association with this frontal boundary, but temperatures are much more of a headache. There’s as much as 20 degree difference between the European and GFS guidance and we’ll have to keep a close eye on the precise position of the backdoor cold front as we move forward- especially with respect to the potential impacts of Monday and Tuesday’s temperatures. Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/17/heavy-rain-on-deck-big-model-differences-early-next-week/