You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Category: Windy
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-storms-develop-tonight-accumulating-snow-wednesday/
Feb 05
Nice Today; Busy Weather Week Ahead…
Highlights:
- Lots of sunshine for Super Bowl Sunday
- Rain and storms early week
- Mid week snow
Beautiful Super Bowl Sunday; Changes Await…We suggest taking your pregame Super Bowl parties outside today to enjoy what’ll be a rare sunny day! Temperatures will also be milder today, topping out in the upper 40s.
Unfortunately, the sunny skies won’t last as clouds increase Monday morning and showers move in by afternoon. As surface low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes, heavier rains and embedded thunderstorms will increase Monday night into Tuesday morning. A couple of these storms could become strong to severe, and include strong and damaging winds and hail. Colder air will pour into Indiana on gusty northwest winds Tuesday night behind the frontal passage.
Our attention will then shift to a colder regime for mid week. We have to iron out the details, but forecast models suggest an area of low pressure will scoot across the central Plains to the East Coast Wednesday into Thursday. This will spread moisture north into the colder air mass and the result may be a swath of accumulating snow north of the low’s track, including central Indiana. We’ll be left with very cold air to wrap up the work week.
Next weekend, the “tug of war” regime will continue. Southwest winds will usher in milder conditions Saturday with showers.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
- Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.25″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/nice-today-busy-weather-week-ahead/
Feb 03
February Tug Of War…
With data only encompassing the first couple days of the month, February has gotten off to a warm start. As we know, the trend over the past 24 hours has been colder and this will continue as we open up the weekend.
However the cold air won’t last and milder times will return by the second half of the weekend. This back and forth “tug of war” type regime will remain as cold and warmth (relative to average) continue to battle over the upcoming couple weeks. The latest European ensemble shows this nicely.
This also favors a rather active pattern and confidence is high on a wetter than average period upcoming over the next couple weeks. See the GFS ensembles support this idea. A couple strong storms are also possible Tuesday.
Unfortunately for snow lovers, the majority of significant moisture should fall as rain. Best snow chances appear to come with “backlash” wrap around snow showers and squalls Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Accumulating snow is possible, but most amounts should be light. We’ll keep an eye on it.
Longer-term, the fight continues deeper into the month. As mentioned this morning, teleconnections and analogs would suggest cold and wintry conditions, but modeling sure isn’t going in that direction as of yet. The battle rages on and given the trends of the winter, it’s hard to bet against the warmer solutions, albeit with lower confidence than we’d like to have from this distance.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/february-tug-of-war/
Feb 03
Friday Morning Rambles; Looking Ahead…
1.) A cold close to the work week can be expected with highs today only topping out in the upper 20s (average highs are in the upper 30s).
2.) What at one time looked to be a significant weekend storm now may not even deliver any precipitation at all to the region. A flurry is possible, but most should remain precipitation-free this weekend. Expect a gusty southwest wind developing SB Sunday. Highs around freezing Saturday will zoom into the middle 40s Sunday. Lows Saturday morning in the middle 10s will rise into the upper 20s to around 30 Sunday morning.
3.) A more significant storm system will cut for the Great Lakes early next week and this will deliver gusty showers and embedded thunderstorms. A couple of stronger storms aren’t out of the question. Locally heavy rains can be expected, including amounts of 1″-1.5″ (locally heavier totals).
4.) Cold air will rush back into the region behind the storm and snow showers and squalls are likely by Wednesday.
5.) Longer-term, a real fight is developing on the overall direction we’re heading as February evolves. Analog methods and teleconnections (shown below) would yield bullish cold signals and give hope to winter enthusiasts. However, modeling isn’t in agreement on the wintry ideas. In fact, some modeling is very spring-like as mid-Feb nears. Stay tuned as we try and iron out the details this weekend. Updates will come.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/friday-morning-rambles-looking-ahead/
Jan 31
Hold On To Your Hat; Accumulating Weekend Snow?
Highlights:
- Windy Tuesday
- Scattered flurries; snow showers tonight-Wednesday AM
- Accumulating weekend snow?
Bumpy Ride…Wind will be the big weather item today as a clipper low passes to our north. Gusty west breezes will reach 30 MPH at times. Otherwise, it’ll be a mild day as highs reach the lower 40s. Cooler air will arrive tonight and will promote the chance of a passing flurry or scattered snow shower into Wednesday morning.
We’ll close the week with cold and dry conditions, including highs below freezing both Thursday and Friday.
As we move into the upcoming weekend, a storm system will attack the lingering cold air and this will allow for a period of snow to develop Saturday night into Sunday morning. We still have time to monitor this event, but as of now this appears to be a relatively weak, flatter wave and “light” is the key word to describe the snow intensity Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Models want to drive a more significant storm system to our northwest early next week. What’s new this winter? A windy warm-up would result, including heavier rains late Monday into Tuesday.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
- Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/hold-on-to-your-hat-accumulating-weekend-snow/