1.) It’s another unseasonably pleasant afternoon across central Indiana. Despite a gusty SW breeze (open county is approaching 40 MPH throughout central IN Sunday afternoon), the sunshine and warm temperatures are providing a phenomenal second half of the weekend.
Temperatures are running 20+ degrees above normal this afternoon.
2.) Clouds will begin to increase tonight and give way to showers as we open the work week. There will be plenty of dry time Monday morning into the afternoon, but a passing shower will remain in our forecast. Heavier rain and embedded thunderstorms will arrive on the scene Monday night into the wee morning hours Tuesday. As a whole, we expect between 0.50-1″ of rain, overall, by Tuesday morning.
Greatest rainfall coverage will arrive overnight Monday night.
3.) We’ll trend cooler for the mid week stretch, but nothing “cold” for this time of year. In fact, temperatures will remain above average as high pressure provides dry conditions.
Weak high pressure builds in for mid week.
4.) Confidence is high on an active period of weather arriving for the weekend into potentially early parts of next week. That said, despite overall high confidence on a busy time of things, the specifics remain “murky,” at best. It’ll be important to check back for updates on the weekend forecast as we progress through the upcoming week. Solutions range anywhere from a period of rain and storms to possibly some wintry “mischief.” One thing seems certain and that’s for a period of colder air (below normal) arriving in the 8-10 day period. In fact, the latest European model suggests overnight low in the 10s late next weekend.
The weather turns active next weekend.
Longer-term indications would suggest the period of chilly, wintry-like, air has a window to take over, but the window is small. Trends would seem to yield warmer solutions once past mid-month, with perhaps a “stick and hold” spring regime taking over.
Despite the lack of sunshine this morning, temperatures continue to run much milder than average. We’re currently running nearly 20° above where we should be at the 9a hour.
A quiet start to the work week is ahead as high pressure dominates early on. That said, a weak storm system will scoot through the state Monday night and Tuesday morning and this will help offer up the chance of showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder.
The next (more significant) storm system will pose a severe weather risk to close the week. We continue to keep a close eye on Friday and the Storm Prediction Center is as well, with western IL, IN, and western KY in their Day 6 Outlook. It’s still early, but the primary focus with the severe potential this storm may pose will be large hail and damaging straight line winds. Stay tuned as we continue to analyze the latest data.
We’ll turn sharply colder Friday night and Saturday. Though it’ll feel much colder, we’ll really only “chill” to seasonal levels, including a gusty northwesterly breeze Saturday.
Longer-term, we’re rumbling into a much more active weather pattern through the mid range period. As the mean trough sets-up position in the west, the ridge will flex it’s muscle across the east yet again during early portions of Week 2. This will set the stage for a repeat of what we deal with Friday and, accordingly, we’ll have to monitor early next week for portions of severe weather yet again.