Category: Weather Rambles

Sep 05

Wednesday Evening Rambles: Cool, Wet, & Blustery Weekend On Deck…

Gordon’s remnant moisture will claim headlines through the weekend.

I.  A cold front will approach Indiana Thursday and result in increased cloudiness AND a better chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms- especially during the afternoon and evening hours.  Though still warm and humid, temperatures will begin a “step down” process to eventually MUCH cooler readings this weekend.

II.  Unsettled weather will continue Friday into Saturday as the surface front settles south.  As an increasingly blustery easterly flow takes hold across central Indiana, cooler air will continue to “ooze” into the state.  Highs shouldn’t make it out of the 70s Friday with considerable cloudiness and showers around.

III.  Unseasonably cool air will be with us Saturday (most of the afternoon will be spent in the 60s for the majority of central IN, especially north of I-70). A stiff easterly flow and showers will continue.

IV.  The remnant moisture of Gordon will creep closer to the region Saturday PM before setting up shop Saturday night into Sunday evening.  This is the most concerning period for potentially excessive rainfall rates and localized flooding.  We still have time to watch things unfold, but the idea here is that widespread 2″ to 4″ totals are likely with locally heavier totals.  This is “beefed up” from this morning’s call of 2″ to 3″.  Stay tuned, especially if you live near water ways.

V.  Finally, the tropical moisture will surge northeast Sunday night and Monday and a cold front will sweep through the region.  This will set up a much drier and very pleasant period as we open up the new work week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wednesday-evening-rambles-cool-wet-blustery-weekend-on-deck/

Jul 31

Summer Feel Returns…

The past (10) days have been particularly pleasant across central Indiana, especially by late-July standards.  80% of the period has featured temperatures at, or below, normal, and the past couple of days have been impressively cool.  Hat tip to Sean Ash (@SeanWTHR) for the most recent stat: “Just the 12th time in 147 years of back-to-back July days in Indianapolis with a high of 72° or below.”  Rainfall has been plentiful across central Indiana, including widespread amounts of 1″ to 2″ with some reports of 3″ to 5″ over the past 48 hours.

After a warm open to the month, July has taken on a significantly cooler side as of late: Graphic courtesy of Midwestern Regional Climate Center

As we rumble into August, you knew that summer feel had to return, right?! 🙂

Forecast models are in agreement that an upper level ridge will expand across the Great Lakes region in the 6-10 day period.  This will deliver a return of warm-to-hot and muggy conditions to central Indiana- beginning this weekend into next week.

GEFS Days 6-10: Graphic courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com

EPS Days 6-10: Graphic courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com

While the next couple of days will continue the cooler than normal theme, temperatures will return to a “summery” feel over the weekend, continuing into next week.  Along with the warmer air will also come increasing humidity.  In short, we recommend incorporating a pool visit (or two) into your weekend schedule.  Highs will return into the upper 80s to around 90° and overnight lows will dip into the upper 60s to around 70°.  While warmer and certainly more humid than we’ve been, we still believe the hottest of the season is behind us (highs of 94° on July 4th and 14th).

Highs will top out a couple degrees either side of 90 this weekend. Graphic courtesy of weathermodels.com

While a more summer-like feel will replace the unseasonably cool close to the month and open to August, it sure looks like the hotter regime will be transitional.  The general consensus from data points towards a return of seasonable to below average temperatures along with a continuation of active times as mid-month approaches…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/summer-feel-returns/

Jul 26

Thursday Evening Video Update: “Hint” Of Fall On The Doorstep; Widespread Soaker Early Next Week…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/thursday-evening-video-update-hint-of-fall-on-the-doorstep-widespread-soaker-early-next-week/

Jul 24

Tuesday Morning Rambles: Drier Air Before Our Next Front…

I. Drier air will work into the region and limit rain chances today and Wednesday (isolated coverage at best). Highs will also warm back up to seasonal levels during the time.

Drier air will work into the Ohio Valley today and Wednesday. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

II. Our next frontal boundary will arrive Thursday afternoon.  Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening hours.  Behind the boundary, cooler and refreshing air will return to wrap up the work week.

Cooler, more refreshing air will return to wrap up the work week. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

III. We’re timing out our next storm system for a weekend arrival. While the weekend won’t be a wash out, rain chances will return late Saturday into Sunday. Forecast models differ on the specifics with respect to timing, track, and rainfall amounts and all will have to be fine tuned over the next few days.

The GFS is faster and more aggressive on weekend rain. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

Meanwhile, the European is slower with rain, bringing the bulk of precipitation in AFTER the weekend. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

IV. Longer range, we don’t see any significant heat on the immediate horizon. On that note, while we aren’t saying additional hot days won’t occur the rest of the way in, we continue to believe the hottest weather of the summer is behind us. The new European Weeklies in last night continued a seasonal to cooler than average theme for August into early September.  All images below are courtesy of weathermodels.com.

Days 10-17

Days 18-25

Days 25-32

Days 32-39

Days 38-45

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tuesday-morning-rambles-drier-air-before-our-next-front/

Jul 21

Saturday Morning Rambles: Unsettled Weekend And Looking Ahead…

It was a tale of two worlds across the state on Friday.  Despite a couple of non-severe, gusty showers that impacted western portions of the state Friday evening, the majority of the “excitement” took place in the eastern half of the state.  Multiple large hail, wind, and tornado reports were included along with heavy rain.  When we look at storm total rainfall through 8a today, we note widespread 2″ to 3″ amounts across eastern Indiana.  Muncie recorded amounts in excess of 3″!

As we look ahead, our weekend weather will continue to be dominated by a “cut off” area of low pressure.  As it meanders around the region, shower and thunderstorm chances will remain.  Aerial coverage of rain will reach greatest heights during the afternoon and evening hours today and Sunday.  With the colder air aloft, don’t be surprised if a few of the stronger showers produce hail.

Additionally, highs today will run close to 10° below the average high of the mid-80s.

As we open up the new week, showers and embedded thunder will also be around Sunday before the upper low begins to lose it’s influence on the region.  We’ll maintain shower chances into the new work week, but overall coverage should be diminished Monday.

Shower and embedded thunder chances remain Sunday. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

A couple of cold fronts will make a run at the Ohio Valley over the upcoming week.  The first will pass through during the midweek stretch, followed by a stronger frontal passage as we get ready to head into the weekend.  Each front will provide a shower/ thunderstorm threat.  A stronger push of pleasantly refreshing air should arrive behind front number 2 as we head into next weekend.

On the temperature note, models continue to show a cooler than average pattern as we open August.

Longer term, the NEW JMA Weeklies suggest the worst of the summer heat is now behind us as they keeps the Weeks 3-4 time period unseasonably refreshing…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/saturday-morning-rambles-unsettled-weekend-and-looking-ahead/