It’s a new day, but unfortunately, there isn’t really any significant change with respect to the overall clarity of the first half of November- at least from a temperature perspective. On the other hand, we remain supremely confident on the return of a “busy” pattern from a precipitation stand point.
With the 12z update, the European ensemble data remains the colder solution when compared to its counterpart (GEFS) in the medium to long range period- or Days 10-15
With that said, data does agree on the more active and wetter than average pattern continuing (from now) through the period.
We’ll continue to look over the data this weekend to see if agreement can be reached on temperatures between the various modeling and update things accordingly. As things stand now, we still anticipate a “pull back” in the anomalous chill around the mid month time frame, but stay tuned. As the mean trough axis transitions into the central portion of the country, the more active storm track up through the Ohio Valley should continue.
II. TD 14 will strengthen into Tropical Storm Michael later today and eventually a hurricane before making landfall along the Florida panhandle during the middle of the week. The remnant moisture of Michael will then race northeast and impact the flood-ravaged Carolinas during the latter stages of the work week.
III. As Michael’s remnant moisture tracks northeast into the Carolinas, a strong cold front will sweep through the Mid West and Ohio Valley. Better chances of organized showers and thunderstorms will arrive ahead of the front Wednesday. Once the front passes, a dramatic wind shift to the northwest will push a MUCH cooler and drier air mass into the region.
IV. We note the PNA (Pacific North America pattern) is flipping to a positive state and that will drive a more sustained period of colder air during the medium and longer range period- or mid and late October.
The air will grow cold enough to support the potential of frost during the 5-10 day period on at least a couple of nights. Additionally, reinforcing chilly air may ignite the lake effect to our north and northeast during Week 2… “Times, they are a changing!”
II.) After a windy and warm Wednesday, scattered showers and thunderstorms will return Thursday. Not everyone will get wet, but a few locally heavy downpours can be expected.
III.) The ridge will “flex its muscle” into early and middle parts of next week and promote an extended (and unusual) stretch of 80s. Don’t put those shorts away just yet…
IV.) A “game changer” of a cold front will approach late next week with better chances of organized rain and storms followed by a return of more seasonal times…
V.) Ingredients are in place for a significant shift in the pattern around the middle of October and colder times continue to look like they will return as we flip the page into Weeks 2-3.
Florence will crawl through the Carolinas this weekend and spread devastating flooding well inland- 20″ to 30″. Even the high ground of the North Carolina Blue Ridge will experience severe flooding Sunday into Monday- 6″ to 12″. These are forecast radar totals shown now through 2p Sunday. The Blue Ridge will see heavy rain continue into Monday evening.
Back here on the home front, expect an extended stretch of dry and warm weather. Plentiful sunshine can be expected as we head into the weekend along with a warming trend- mid 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s. High pressure will remain in firm control.
The next item of excitement for our region will be from a cold front late next week. This will help increase shower and thunderstorm chances along with delivering cooler air next weekend.
I. Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms will begin to dissipate this evening and tonight with the loss of daytime heating. Some area rain gauges have already picked up between 0.50″ and 1″ of rain this afternoon and this will only serve to lay the ground work for further problems moving forward.