Category: Tropics

Jun 20

Active Weather Pattern Remains; Much Cooler To Close June…

Highlights:

  • PM storms
  • Dry midweek
  • Wet close to the work week
  • Much cooler air looms

Busy Times…Upper level energy and just enough instability could spark another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.  Similar to Monday, these will be quick-movers, but shouldn’t be quite as strong as yesterday.

Dry weather will return through midweek and while pleasant air will still be with us Wednesday, a more humid feel will develop Thursday.  Showers and thunderstorms will begin to creep back into the picture Thursday downstate, but we believe most of central Indiana should remain rain-free.

We’ll be in a “squeeze play” of sorts to close the work week and head into the weekend.  A cold front will drop in from the north while remnant tropical moisture moves north out of the Deep South.  Widespread showers and thunderstorms should result, including the potential of locally heavy rain.

The big story over the weekend into the last week of the month will be unseasonably cool air.  Enough upper level energy will be around in a fast northwest flow aloft to lead to shower chances Sunday, otherwise early next week looks stunning- including plentiful sunshine, dry air, and unseasonably cool temperatures.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/active-weather-pattern-remains-much-cooler-to-close-june/

Jun 19

Refreshing Open To The Week; Scattered Storm Chances Remain…

Highlights:

  • Feelin’ nice
  • Scattered storms remain
  • More widespread storms late week

Pleasant Open To The Work Week…A step out the door this morning will reveal a much more pleasant feel than what we’ve grown accustomed to over the past week, or so.  Much lower humidity and cooler air will be with us through the day Tuesday.  With that said, enough upper level energy will be nearby to spark afternoon and evening showers and embedded thundershowers both today and Tuesday.

Humidity will return for the midweek stretch, and temperatures will also be on the climb.  While the weekend looks unsettled, the precise details remain a bit “murky” at this point.  We know a cold front will slice into the warm and humid air mass, which will serve as a trigger for more widespread showers and thunderstorms (some with locally heavy rain).  Some model guidance wants to get tropical moisture involved (from whatever comes of what’s currently Invest 93L). Stay tuned as we continue to look over the data this week.  Regardless, a much cooler and drier air mass will arrive next week…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/refreshing-open-to-the-week-scattered-storm-chances-remain/

Jun 18

Upcoming Week Headliners…

I. Drier and Cooler Air Returns:  A cold front will pass this evening and allow a much less humid and cooler air mass to return to the state.  Dew points will fall into the 50s by Monday morning and highs should only reach the upper 70s to around 80 Monday afternoon.  Refreshing air will remain in place through the day Tuesday.

A much less humid air mass will arrive to open the work week.

II. Watching the Gulf:  All eyes will be on the Gulf of Mexico this week as it tries to breed early season tropical “mischief.”  There are many more questions than answers right now concerning the all-important details (ultimate track and strength), but confidence is high on a depression or storm forming in the Gulf by middle to latter portions of the week.  Early thinking would place more emphasis on this being a big inland rain event across portions of the southeast, as opposed to this thing ramping up fast enough to be a big wind/ surge problem, but stay tuned.

Confidence is high on early season tropical development this week in the Gulf of Mexico.

III. Unsettled Weather Returns:  A storm system will approach the region by the latter portions of the work week, including the weekend.  As a result, a warmer and increasingly moist air mass will return and help spawn showers and thunderstorms.  Unfortunately, timing isn’t our friend as numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast Friday-Sunday.  Locally heavy rain is also a good bet.

Heavy rain and storm chances increase late week.

IV. June Ends On A Cool Note:  Once we get rid of the significant storm next weekend, an unseasonably cool air mass will build in over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley in the 8-10 day time period.  How do highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s sound and lows in the middle 50s?

Models agree on an unseasonably cool close to June.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/upcoming-week-headliners/

Jun 11

Hot And Humid; Storms Chances Return…

Highlights:

  • Dry conditions continue
  • Hot and turning humid
  • Storm chances return

Tropical Feel Develops…Pleasant air is on borrowed time and we’ll begin to notice an increasingly muggy feel to the air as early as this afternoon.  Dew points will reach oppressive levels Monday into Tuesday (70° and above).  With the increased moisture, isolated thunderstorms will develop Tuesday, but most should still remain rain-free.  Better shower and thunderstorm coverage will be noted Wednesday into Thursday as a frontal system moves through the state.  This won’t be a “uniform” rain, but locally heavy downpours can be expected in the stronger storms.  As dry as we’ve been, we’ll take what we can get.  It’s a start, at the very least, towards a more active second half of June.

We’ll dry things out briefly Friday before another storm system approaches next weekend.  Early indications would suggest next weekend’s storm system will provide more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity.

Tropics:  Interesting times appear to be looming in the Gulf of Mexico as we push into the last couple weeks of the month.  Models continue to paint various scenarios on potential early season tropical development and any one solution can’t be bought just yet.  That said, the overall pattern does seem to want to promote some tropical “mischief” in the coming 10 days, or so.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/hot-and-humid-storms-chances-return/

Oct 06

Thursday Evening Rambles…

1.) Matthew is rumbling towards the east coast of FL this evening and data continues to suggest a landfall near West Palm Beach late tonight or during the predawn hours Friday.  Regardless, an extended period of hurricane conditions, beach erosion, surge, and heavy rain await the FL peninsula.

For the Space Coast region, this very well could be the most significant hurricane the area has seen.  Our thoughts and prayers continue for our family and friends in Matthew’s path.

Radar around 8p Thursday.

Radar around 8p Thursday.

Forecast radar 1a Friday.

Forecast radar 1a Friday.

Most model data likes the “loop de loop” idea and potentially brings Matthew back in for a second FL landfall early next week (in a much weaker state, thankfully, due to upwelling and shear).

al14_current2.) A cold front will pass through our neck of the woods as we put a wrap on the work week.  While moisture is limited with the front, a much cooler air mass will greet us out the door Saturday morning.  A light shower is possible Friday afternoon or evening, but this won’t be a big deal and most high school football games will remain dry.  Temperatures Saturday morning will be in the 40s with lingering low clouds and areas of fog possible.  We should shake the morning low cloudiness and allow for sunshine most of the day.  Temperatures will remain crisp; generally in the lower to middle 60s for highs.

A chilly start is anticipated Saturday morning.

A chilly start is anticipated Saturday morning.

The weekend into early next week will remain pleasant, with chilly, clear nights and lots of sunshine during the day, along with cool afternoon highs.

3.)  The longer term pattern through at least the middle of October is one that features anomalous warmth and dry conditions.  In fact, it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility for afternoon highs to reach close to 80 once again towards Day 10…. We shall see.

We warm back up above average in the 6-10 Day period

We warm back up above average in the 6-10 Day period

A mainly dry pattern continues

A mainly dry pattern continues

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/thursday-evening-rambles-3/