VIDEO: Storms Rumble In For Some Tonight; Tropical Talk; & A Cool Close To June…
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Active Weather Pattern Remains; Much Cooler To Close June…
Highlights:
- PM storms
- Dry midweek
- Wet close to the work week
- Much cooler air looms
Busy Times…Upper level energy and just enough instability could spark another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Similar to Monday, these will be quick-movers, but shouldn’t be quite as strong as yesterday.
Dry weather will return through midweek and while pleasant air will still be with us Wednesday, a more humid feel will develop Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to creep back into the picture Thursday downstate, but we believe most of central Indiana should remain rain-free.
We’ll be in a “squeeze play” of sorts to close the work week and head into the weekend. A cold front will drop in from the north while remnant tropical moisture moves north out of the Deep South. Widespread showers and thunderstorms should result, including the potential of locally heavy rain.
The big story over the weekend into the last week of the month will be unseasonably cool air. Enough upper level energy will be around in a fast northwest flow aloft to lead to shower chances Sunday, otherwise early next week looks stunning- including plentiful sunshine, dry air, and unseasonably cool temperatures.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″
Refreshing Open To The Week; Scattered Storm Chances Remain…
Highlights:
- Feelin’ nice
- Scattered storms remain
- More widespread storms late week
Pleasant Open To The Work Week…A step out the door this morning will reveal a much more pleasant feel than what we’ve grown accustomed to over the past week, or so. Much lower humidity and cooler air will be with us through the day Tuesday. With that said, enough upper level energy will be nearby to spark afternoon and evening showers and embedded thundershowers both today and Tuesday.
Humidity will return for the midweek stretch, and temperatures will also be on the climb. While the weekend looks unsettled, the precise details remain a bit “murky” at this point. We know a cold front will slice into the warm and humid air mass, which will serve as a trigger for more widespread showers and thunderstorms (some with locally heavy rain). Some model guidance wants to get tropical moisture involved (from whatever comes of what’s currently Invest 93L). Stay tuned as we continue to look over the data this week. Regardless, a much cooler and drier air mass will arrive next week…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″
Upcoming Week Headliners…
I. Drier and Cooler Air Returns: A cold front will pass this evening and allow a much less humid and cooler air mass to return to the state. Dew points will fall into the 50s by Monday morning and highs should only reach the upper 70s to around 80 Monday afternoon. Refreshing air will remain in place through the day Tuesday.
II. Watching the Gulf: All eyes will be on the Gulf of Mexico this week as it tries to breed early season tropical “mischief.” There are many more questions than answers right now concerning the all-important details (ultimate track and strength), but confidence is high on a depression or storm forming in the Gulf by middle to latter portions of the week. Early thinking would place more emphasis on this being a big inland rain event across portions of the southeast, as opposed to this thing ramping up fast enough to be a big wind/ surge problem, but stay tuned.
III. Unsettled Weather Returns: A storm system will approach the region by the latter portions of the work week, including the weekend. As a result, a warmer and increasingly moist air mass will return and help spawn showers and thunderstorms. Unfortunately, timing isn’t our friend as numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast Friday-Sunday. Locally heavy rain is also a good bet.
IV. June Ends On A Cool Note: Once we get rid of the significant storm next weekend, an unseasonably cool air mass will build in over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley in the 8-10 day time period. How do highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s sound and lows in the middle 50s?
Hot And Humid; Storms Chances Return…
Highlights:
- Dry conditions continue
- Hot and turning humid
- Storm chances return
Tropical Feel Develops…Pleasant air is on borrowed time and we’ll begin to notice an increasingly muggy feel to the air as early as this afternoon. Dew points will reach oppressive levels Monday into Tuesday (70° and above). With the increased moisture, isolated thunderstorms will develop Tuesday, but most should still remain rain-free. Better shower and thunderstorm coverage will be noted Wednesday into Thursday as a frontal system moves through the state. This won’t be a “uniform” rain, but locally heavy downpours can be expected in the stronger storms. As dry as we’ve been, we’ll take what we can get. It’s a start, at the very least, towards a more active second half of June.
We’ll dry things out briefly Friday before another storm system approaches next weekend. Early indications would suggest next weekend’s storm system will provide more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity.
Tropics: Interesting times appear to be looming in the Gulf of Mexico as we push into the last couple weeks of the month. Models continue to paint various scenarios on potential early season tropical development and any one solution can’t be bought just yet. That said, the overall pattern does seem to want to promote some tropical “mischief” in the coming 10 days, or so.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.00″