Category Archives: Tropics

The Week Opens Quiet Before More Unsettled Times Return…

High pressure will remain in control of our weather pattern through the early portions of the new week.  This will supply continued dry conditions, along with plentiful sunshine.  Humidity values will remain comfortable as we open the work week before turning increasingly muggy as midweek nears.

High pressure will keep us dry through early week.

As high pressure moves off to the east, a southwesterly air flow will help moisture return to the state by mid and late week.  As a cold front enters the picture, overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase and become scattered to numerous.  We’re not expecting any sort of all-day rains, but chances of getting wet from time to time will go up Wednesday through Friday.

Thunderstorm coverage increases mid and late week.

Rainfall totals should fall in the 0.50″ to 1.00″ range for most, but there will be a few folks who pick up locally heavier amounts the second half of the week.

As of now, we think the cold front will pass Friday evening and set-up another pleasant weekend with seasonable temperatures.  The stretch of gorgeous August weekends’ appears to roll along.

What else we’re working on:  With us about to flip the page to the second half of August, thoughts continue to shift to the upcoming meteorological fall and winter seasons ahead.  Early data paints an “intriguing” look, complete with high latitude blocking and neutral ENSO look.  Winter enthusiasts should like the look overall as this will have an impact on the prospects of cold getting going earlier than recent years past.  Much more on fall and winter in the weeks ahead…  The other big item of interest has to do with the tropics.  A new disturbance will traverse the MDR (Main Development Region) this week and given the overall upper level pattern over the CONUS, we’ll have to keep an eye on the East Coast Weeks 2-3.

No Comments Autumn, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Tropics, Weather Rambles, Winter thoughts...

Considerable Cloudiness To Open The Work Week…

Highlights:

  • Mostly cloudy start to the work week
  • Another cold front moves in
  • Turning cooler late in the weekend

Comfortable Late-Summer Week Ahead…Talk about a bust of a Sunday forecast on our part.  Dry air and lack of forcing resulted in steady rains remaining across southern parts of the state.  With the exception of a couple of brief showers, central and northern portions of the state remained dry most of the day.

While we’ll remain with mostly cloudy skies today, most of the region will once again remain free of any rain.  The exception will be across southeastern Indiana where steady rains have been falling this morning.  That will continue to move east into Ohio as we push forward.  Otherwise, drier air will arrive tonight and set the stage for increasing sunshine Tuesday and Wednesday.  With low humidity and below normal temperatures, both days will be great to spend time outdoors, or perhaps a trip to the Indiana State Fair is in order?

Moisture will begin to return by Thursday and with an approaching cold front, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be with us through the weekend.  As of now, most widespread storm coverage is expected late Saturday into Sunday morning.  We’ll turn significantly cooler than normal (yet again) early next week.

Tropics:  As expected in August into September, the tropics are turning increasingly active.  This morning, Tropical Storm Franklin continues to grab headlines as he is becoming more organized and positioned to impact the Yucatan today through Wednesday.  From there, Franklin is anticipated to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday.  With very warm waters and a low shear environment, Franklin should strengthen yet again before making a second landfall late in the work week along the east-central Mexican coast.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Tropics, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Heavy Rain Gives Way To A Gorgeous Weekend…

Highlights:

  • Heavy rain and storms through the daytime
  • Much cooler and drier air on the way
  • Pleasant week ahead

Tropical Downpours Today…The remnant tropical moisture of Cindy is lifting northeast this morning while a cold front is dropping south.  The combination of these two weather features will result in an expanding area of rain and thunderstorms across central Indiana late morning into the early afternoon.  Periods of heavy rain can be expected.  Thankfully, this won’t be a long duration event and a much drier air mass will invade from northwest to southeast by evening.  We’ll easily notice this drier trend as dew points go from about as high (lower-middle 70s) as we ever see them this morning to a very crisp feel (dew points in the 50s) tonight.

The cooler and drier theme will continue through the weekend into the majority of the upcoming week ahead.  As noted in previous discussions, a fast-moving northwest flow will be responsible for sending a couple of minor upper level disturbances southeast into the region.  For the most part, we believe scattered showers will remain north of central Indiana until Monday afternoon and evening.  While this won’t be a significant event by any stretch of the imagination, a couple of showers are possible.

Our air flow will eventually shift around to the southwest by the middle of the week and this will begin to send a warmer and increasingly moist air mass north by Thursday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″ (locally heavier amounts)
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Heavy Rain, T-storms, Tropics, Unseasonably Cool Weather

VIDEO: Heavy Rain Develops Overnight Into Friday…

The combination of an approaching cold front to our north and remnant tropical moisture from Cindy will serve to enhance rainfall amounts across central Indiana late tonight into early Friday evening.…

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No Comments Flooding, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, T-storms, Tropics, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weather Videos

Friday Squeeze Play; Much Cooler Air Coming…

Highlights:

  • Breezy, warm Thursday
  • Heavy rain Friday
  • Drier and much cooler air on deck

Heavy Rains Likely Friday…A warm front is draped to our north this morning and this is helping spark a few showers across northern portions of the state.  Here on the “home front,” with the exception of an isolated shower or storm, most should remain rain-free through the day, locally.  Things begin to change late tonight into Friday as the region feels the effects of a “squeeze play” between Cindy’s remnant tropical moisture tracking through the TN Valley and an approaching cold front to our north.  The combination of the two will promote the development of showers and thunderstorms across central IN.  With a tropical nature to the airmass Friday, some of these storms will produce locally heavy rainfall.  Most widespread rain and storm coverage should occur Friday morning into the afternoon before a drying trend develops from northwest to southeast Friday evening.

Our cold front will push southeast and clear the state Friday night which will allow a much drier and cooler air mass to settle in for the weekend, continuing into next week.  You’ll be hard pressed to find anyone complaining about our weather through the period as a stretch of beautiful summer conditions take on an almost early fall-like feel through Tuesday.  While we’ll have to keep an eye on a sneaky disturbance riding into the region on the fast northwest flow (could spark a quick passing shower), most of the period should remain rain-free.  Eventually our air flow will shift to a southwesterly direction by the middle of next week and this will help transport an increasingly moist feel back into the region.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall:  1.00″ – 2.00″ 
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Forecast, Heavy Rain, Summer, T-storms, Tropics, Unseasonably Cool Weather