Category: Tropics

Watching Bill…

Tropical Storm Bill will make landfall later this morning along the central TX coast.       Models handle the track of Bill differently in the days ahead, but we must continue…

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Humid, Stormy Times Continue; Watching The Tropics…

Screen Shot 2015-06-15 at 7.39.21 AMHighlights: 

  • Humid feel continues
  • Strong to severe storms possible Tuesday
  • Watching tropical remnants closely

We’re waking up to similar weather conditions that we dealt with to close the weekend- scattered heavy downpours and very humid. It certainly won’t rain the entire day, but scattered storms will bubble up again as we progress into the afternoon and evening.  With the humid air mass locked in, any shower or storm that develops will produce torrential downpours.

A frontal boundary will slip into the region tomorrow and provide enough lift to present a strong to severe thunderstorm threat Tuesday.  We’ll continue to keep a close eye on things.  This front will stall out near the area and serve as a focal point for thunderstorm development through the upcoming few days.

The tropics continue to be of interest later this week, but we stress that forecast models are really struggling with handling the details.  Solutions range from a flood threat presented by the European and Canadian; however the GFS would suggest the tropical remnants don’t get involved in our pattern.  We’re leaning more towards the Euro/ Canadian blend as of now as we feel the SE ridge will help steer the tropical remnants northeast into the Ohio Valley late week (timing may have to be find tuned as we draw closer).  Again, stay tuned.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2″ – 3″ (locally heavier totals)

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Busy Times In The Forecast Office…

Today is the beginning of several active days around these parts. Over the course of the next few days severe weather and heavy rainfall will keep us on our toes…

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Catching Up On A Tuesday Evening…

Several interesting weather items are on the docket and each will have to be dealt with as they come over the course of the upcoming 7 days.  Some of the headlines include a brief warm-up Saturday, weekend rain that could include a tropical connection Sunday, and another big shot of October-like chill next week.

While we have a few more days of below normal temperatures in front of us, we eye at least one day where temperatures will manage to climb above normal and that’s Saturday.  All indications still suggest we’ll be very close, if not a degree or two higher, than the 80 degree mark along with a nice southwest air flow in place Saturday.  All-in-all, it’ll be a great day to take care of any early-autumn yard work that’s needing to get done.

Changes brew Sunday as a cold front draws near.  This is where questions lie and they actually have to do with Tropical Storm Odile (currently all the way to our southwest over the central Baja California peninsula region).  Odilemoisture

While the GFS and European forecast models still aren’t interested in “welcoming” Odile’s moisture into the region, we note the Canadian model does suggest some tropical moisture, courtesy of Odile, gets entangled along the front Sunday.  We’ll continue to keep a close eye on things and monitor the forecast data accordingly moving forward through the back half of the work week.

 

The other item of interest has to do with yet another big blast of autumn air that will have things feeling very much like October around these parts come early next week.  The above average temperatures Saturday will hang around just for the day as yet another unseasonably chilly air mass moves into the area Monday into Tuesday of next week as a significant trough develops over the east with an impressive western ridge in place.  f156

 

Note the GEFS and Canadian show the return of the unseasonable chill next week.  Keep those jackets handy.  Early indications would suggest this type air mass is plenty capable of highs in the upper 50s/ lower 60s and overnight lows in the upper 30s/ lower 40s during the height of the chill (most likely Tuesday).  Stay tuned…

2014091600_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198gefs_t2anom_by5_conus_45

 

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Much Less Humid Weekend…

Fri.

Sat.

Sun.

Mon.

Tue.

Wed.

Thr.

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63/ 80

57/ 80

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69/ 82

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62/ 80

70/ 85 

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After a week of that famous summer “heavy” air mass filled with plenty of warmth and humidity, Hoosiers can breathe a sigh of relief this weekend as a much more refreshing northeast flow provides greatly reduced humidity levels.  Also, we’ll enjoy plenty of sunshine for your weekend!  All-in-all, we’ve lucked out with yet another beauty of a weekend!  Get out and enjoy!  As we flip the page into the new work week, showers and thunderstorm chances will increase as humidity levels do a rather abrupt face and return to the sultry levels we grew accustomed to this week.  Locally heavy rainfall will be a possibility with such moisture content.  A period of widespread, enhanced, rains may fall late next week.  In unrelated weather news, we’ll also monitor the possibility of something “curious” down in the Gulf of Mexico towards the mid to late week period and the possibility of early season tropical mischief…

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