Category: Severe Weather

Friday Evening Rambles; Busy Winter Pattern…

*Your complete and updated 7-day will be posted later tonight.  As always, please click on the images below to enlarge.

1.) Early freezing rain will give way to a moderate to heavy rain event Saturday.  Widespread 1″-2″ rainfall amounts can be expected.  If traveling during the predawn hours across central Indiana, be aware for possible light glazing from freezing rain.  Forecast radar shows freezing rain potential shortly after midnight.  This should transition to all rain between 2a-4a across central Indiana, but if your travels take you north, northern parts of the state will hang on to a wintry mix a few hours longer.

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2.) We’re eyeing an accumulating snow event as a clipper system and associated arctic front blow in Monday night and Tuesday.  Still early to talk specific snow amounts, but it’s the type event that could deposit a “few” inches.  More in the days ahead.  Wind and brutal cold will accompany this snow.

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3.) Dangerous cold invades next week and reaches coldest levels Wednesday into Thursday. Wind chill values may approach 30 degrees below zero.  Definitely a dangerous scenario if you plan to be outdoors for any length of time period.

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4.) Additional wintry mischief awaits later next week…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/friday-evening-rambles-busy-winter-pattern/

Video Update On Rain To Snow Christmas Eve; More On The Days Ahead…

Good evening, friends!  Here’s an update on our latest thinking Christmas Eve and the coming days…. Have a great night!

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Stormy Times Today; Severe Weather Tonight…

It’s a wet and stormy start for many this morning. Despite some local downpours and embedded thunder, all of this morning’s storms will remain below severe levels. Periods of showers…

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Cool Autumn Weekend; Severe Storm Potential Monday Night…

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Cool Autumn Weekend…The rest of today will feature mid and high level cloudiness, but dry conditions.  Cool north to northeast winds will blow and require jackets or sweaters if venturing outside for too long of a time.

Be sure to enjoy the brief dry weather Saturday as shower chances return as early as Sunday, particularly during the afternoon hours and on.  Moisture will begin to surge back north in advance of a storm system that will lead to some rough weather around these parts to open the new work week.

Monday Severe Potential…Gusty southwest winds will usher in a warmer and more humid feel of things Monday out ahead of our next strong storm system.  We continue to closely monitor the potential of severe weather Monday night into Tuesday morning and want to highlight the threat of damaging straight line wind potential embedded with a possible squall line.  Beforehand, showers and embedded thunder will be possible during the daytime Monday.

We note the GFS remains consistent on strong to severe storm potential Monday night into Tuesday morning while the European is more delayed (suggesting more of a threat during the day time Tuesday).  For now, we’re leaning more towards the GFS and we’ll have more on the early week severe threat Sunday.  Locally heavy rain is also a good bet during this time, including widespread 1″-1.5″, with locally heavier totals.

Taking The More Optimistic Approach…Some forecast data wants to keep considerable cloudiness and pesky light showers around into the mid week period, but for now we’re still going with the more optimistic outlook and including drier weather along with cooler temperatures for the balance of the upcoming work week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1-2″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
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We continue to highlight Monday night/ Tuesday morning for the potential of severe weather, including damaging straight line winds. Here’s what the high resolution NAM simulated radar suggests at 8p Monday local time.

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/cool-autumn-weekend-severe-storm-potential-monday-night/

Carefully Watching Monday Night/ Tuesday For Storm Potential…

While rain and chilly air are the headlines as we wrap up the work week and open another important college football weekend (my anticipation is building rapidly for my beloved Tigers taking on a dangerous MS. State squad Saturday afternoon- WAR EAGLE, btw), our attention is continuing to focus in on the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday morning across the region.

Forecast models continue to suggest strengthening low pressure will track northeast from MO into IL and MI Monday night into Tuesday morning.

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The region will briefly get into a warm and humid environment Monday and Monday night (plenty capable of fueling strong to severe thunderstorm development).  Temperatures in the 70s will combine with dew points in the low to mid 60s.

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A ribbon of precipitable water values will approach 2″ across the state Monday night.  This supports heavy and locally flash flood producing rainfall.  Forecast models continue to key on additional Monday-Tuesday rainfall in the 1-2″+ range.

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We’ll continue to closely monitor the data as we move forward, but at this early juncture, make a mental note to be weather-aware Monday night into Tuesday morning as strong to severe thunderstorm potential develops.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/carefully-watching-monday-night-tuesday-for-storm-potential/