Category Archives: Severe Weather

Thursday Storms Before A Cooler Trend…

Highlights:

  • Strong storms possible Thursday afternoon
  • Cooler close to the work week
  • Raw Saturday
  • Delightful open to next week

Thursday Rumbles…While storms have pressed through the northern portions of the state today, we’ve enjoyed a couple days of pleasant weather across most of central Indiana.  That will come to an end Thursday as scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms develop, especially during the afternoon into the evening hours.  A few of these storms could become strong-to-severe, including damaging wind and large hail potential.  The cold front will pass Thursday night and help usher in a briefly drier and much cooler air mass to close out the work week.

Our next storm system will pass south of the region Saturday and result in thickening and lowering clouds Friday evening, and showers Saturday.  With a stiff east wind, showers at times, and temperatures well below average, we have the makings for a downright “raw” spring day Saturday.  The second half of the weekend will easily be “the pick” as we return to drier air and increasing sunshine Sunday afternoon.

Early next week looks to get off to a pleasant start, including plentiful sunshine and moderating temperatures.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.25″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Rain, Severe Weather, Spring, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Windy

Drier Weather Arrives For Midweek; Unsettled Easter Weekend…

Highlights:

  • Drier air arrives
  • Unsettled Easter weekend
  • Drier; cooler early next week

Brighter Days Ahead…Needless to say, our storm system to open the work week has “overachieved.”  Severe thunderstorm warnings were hoisted as early as this morning northwest of the city, including Lafayette- where damaging hail was reported.  Storms remained northwest of the city through the rush hour before a line of slow-moving “gully washers” arrived just as Hoosiers were heading home from work.  Thankfully these remained below severe levels, but heavy rain and vivid lightning was noted and most certainly led to a slow commute home.

Drier (and brighter) days are ahead this week.  High pressure returns as we progress through midweek and should allow for increasing sunshine and beautiful weather.

Unfortunately, we can’t dial up 3 nice weekends in a row, but it will be far from a wash-out.  A warm front will lift north Friday into Saturday and result in scattered showers and thunderstorms before a cold front pushes southeast with showers and thunderstorms  Easter, especially in the morning.  We want to reiterate there will be plenty of dry time this weekend…just have the rain gear handy as needed.  Drier air will return Easter afternoon and remain in place early next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″ (locally heavier totals)
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Easter, Forecast, Severe Weather, Spring, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm

Looking At The Week Ahead…

The second half of the weekend will feature beautiful weather, albeit breezy conditions at times.  Strong southwesterly winds will gust upwards of 40 MPH this afternoon, but also aid in pushing mid to upper 70s northward into central Indiana.  Despite the strong winds, we still recommend finding a way to get outside and enjoy this weather!

Highs will run close to 15° above average this afternoon.

Stormy weather returns Monday as a frontal boundary slips into the state.  A couple storms may become strong or severe Monday afternoon and the Storm Prediction Center highlights northwestern portions of the state for a Slight Risk.  Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern with any severe storm that may develop.

High pressure returns for midweek and supplies a dry regime, along with increasing sunshine and temperatures that will run slightly above average (mid-40s at night and 65°-70° during the day).

There are questions once to the end of the period as the GFS and European handle the evolution of our late-week storm differently.  The GFS brings energy out into the Ohio Valley and results in unsettled weather returning Friday, continuing into Easter weekend, while the European is slower.  We’ll keep an eye on things over the next few days and update accordingly.  The GFS suggests some localized heavier downpours would be possible in the Friday-Sunday period as the majority of the 7-day precipitation snapshot below falls within the timeframe.

No Comments Easter, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Severe Weather, Spring, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weekly Outlook, Windy

Word On The Weeklies…

New JMA Weeklies stream in on Thursday mornings and we send out a Thursday morning report, in detail, to our clients dissecting the latest data, but want to try and start making public comments on the model here, as well.

The overall idea after looking at the JMA Weeklies is wet and warm over the upcoming (4) weeks relative to average. That said, there will be periods of drier times, especially Week 1, and late season chill- as can be expected every April.

Week 1:

Week 2:

Weeks 3-4:

The big picture is one that shows a drier pattern developing across the East during Week 1, but we caution that this drier regime doesn’t look to “lock” in.  Data suggests we get back to an active pattern between Week’s 2-4, biased wetter than normal in the Mid West and Plains.  The other screaming message is that a busy severe season should continue through the period.  Cold sets up across the Pacific Northwest, associated with the “mean” trough position, while spring-like warmth continues to build across our region in overall terms.  We know what that means as storms eject off the Rockies and track east…

No Comments AG Report, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, JMA, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Severe Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weekly Outlook

Wednesday: Potential Of A Busy Severe Weather Day…

Highlights:

  • Stormy Wednesday
  • Snow mixes with rain Thursday
  • Gorgeous weekend upcoming
  • Busy times return next week

Remain Weather-Aware…Chilly, dry weather will continue this evening before showers and thunderstorms (non-severe) approach the western Indiana state line overnight and early Wednesday.  Initially, showers and thunderstorms will impact western and northwestern portions of the state before all of central Indiana gets into the act by the afternoon hours.  We continue to be concerned for the potential of an active severe weather day across the southern half of the state.  All modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes.  As of this update (late Tuesday night), the greatest risk area appears to lie within areas from Indianapolis and points south and southeast.  We’re most concerned for the period 2p-8p and will fine tune things early Wednesday if needed.  Please remain weather-aware and have a means of getting the latest warnings.

We’ll shift gears rather abruptly from severe to more of a wintry feel to close the work week.  Much colder air will spill into central Indiana Wednesday night and Thursday and leftover, wraparound, moisture will begin mixing with wet snowflakes Thursday afternoon and evening.  Gusty northwest winds and the unseasonably chilly air will result in a downright ugly, raw day.

After early morning snowflakes Friday, drier air will begin to work into the region and result in increasing sunshine Friday afternoon.  This will be a prelude to a gorgeous weekend:  After a cold start Saturday, expect lots of sunshine and moderating afternoon temperatures.  The warming trend continues Sunday as we top the 70° mark.

Our next storm approaches early next week.  Clouds increase Sunday night and give way to showers and thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday.  Questions come into play in regards to timing with this next cold front, but thinking (as of now) only slowly moves the front along, keeping unsettled weather in our forecast early week before a much cooler, drier period of weather by midweek.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 2.00″ – 2.50″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Heavy Rain, Rain, Severe Weather, snow, T-storms, Tornadoes, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Windy