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We have scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms to deal with today and Monday (along with plenty of dry time, too), but our attention is beginning to shift to the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday- particularly Tuesday night.
We note surface dew points surge into the upper 50s and lower 60s Tuesday.
This should be sufficient enough to help fuel a developing thunderstorm cluster in IL Tuesday afternoon/ evening that will likely race eastward with time Tuesday night. We note a strong area of low pressure over the upper Mid West that will “bull-whip” a cold front through the region Tuesday night. This will tap into the available moisture and relative warmth (lower to middle 70s a good bet for highs Tuesday) to continue the storm threat through IN and into western OH during the late evening/ overnight.
All modes of severe weather appear to be in play right now, but we’re particularly concerned about the potential of damaging straight line winds within any thunderstorm complex that develops Tuesday afternoon/ evening. We’ll also have to monitor the potential of discrete cells that develop away from the primary storm complex.
We turn cooler and windy Wednesday.
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Highlights:
Stormy Evening…Tuesday is dawning nice and quiet with dry and chilly conditions in place. A bit of fog has been reported just west and north of the city. The quiet times will give way to a bumpy ride by this evening as a warm front passes, allowing a strong SW breeze to boost temperatures close to 60 (after dark high).
Scattered showers will develop this afternoon, but it’s the evening hours that we bracket (between 4-10p west to east) for the potential of strong to severe storms. Some of these storms will be capable of damaging winds, and even a quick spin-up tornado can’t be ruled out. Have a way to get the latest weather information this evening.
We turn cooler Wednesday with lingering moisture falling in the form of mixed rain and snow showers. This won’t be a big deal.
Dry times will be with us to end the week and rumble into the Super Bowl weekend, with moderating temperatures. The moderating trend won’t last long as models continue to suggest an arctic blast looms next week. To go along with that cold, snow chances will also come.
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