Highlights:
- Drier air arrives
- Unsettled Easter weekend
- Drier; cooler early next week
Brighter Days Ahead…Needless to say, our storm system to open the work week has “overachieved.” Severe thunderstorm warnings were hoisted as early as this morning northwest of the city, including Lafayette- where damaging hail was reported. Storms remained northwest of the city through the rush hour before a line of slow-moving “gully washers” arrived just as Hoosiers were heading home from work. Thankfully these remained below severe levels, but heavy rain and vivid lightning was noted and most certainly led to a slow commute home.
Drier (and brighter) days are ahead this week. High pressure returns as we progress through midweek and should allow for increasing sunshine and beautiful weather.
Unfortunately, we can’t dial up 3 nice weekends in a row, but it will be far from a wash-out. A warm front will lift north Friday into Saturday and result in scattered showers and thunderstorms before a cold front pushes southeast with showers and thunderstorms Easter, especially in the morning. We want to reiterate there will be plenty of dry time this weekend…just have the rain gear handy as needed. Drier air will return Easter afternoon and remain in place early next week.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″ (locally heavier totals)
Highs will run close to 15° above average this afternoon.
Stormy weather returns Monday as a frontal boundary slips into the state. A couple storms may become strong or severe Monday afternoon and the Storm Prediction Center highlights northwestern portions of the state for a Slight Risk. Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern with any severe storm that may develop.
High pressure returns for midweek and supplies a dry regime, along with increasing sunshine and temperatures that will run slightly above average (mid-40s at night and 65°-70° during the day).
There are questions once to the end of the period as the GFS and European handle the evolution of our late-week storm differently. The GFS brings energy out into the Ohio Valley and results in unsettled weather returning Friday, continuing into Easter weekend, while the European is slower. We’ll keep an eye on things over the next few days and update accordingly. The GFS suggests some localized heavier downpours would be possible in the Friday-Sunday period as the majority of the 7-day precipitation snapshot below falls within the timeframe.
Week 2:
Weeks 3-4:
The big picture is one that shows a drier pattern developing across the East during Week 1, but we caution that this drier regime doesn’t look to “lock” in. Data suggests we get back to an active pattern between Week’s 2-4, biased wetter than normal in the Mid West and Plains. The other screaming message is that a busy severe season should continue through the period. Cold sets up across the Pacific Northwest, associated with the “mean” trough position, while spring-like warmth continues to build across our region in overall terms. We know what that means as storms eject off the Rockies and track east…
Highlights:
2.) We’ll get a breather on Tuesday, but our next storm system will move in quickly and begin impacting central Indiana during the day Wednesday. A couple strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and will require our attention over the next day, or so. We’ll have more details with our updated 7-day later today.
3.) We’ll get into the colder side of the storm to close the work week and thoughts will shift from storms to snow. Wind-whipped snow showers will be a good bet in the unseasonably cold air Thursday into Friday morning.
4.) Timing will once again be our friend as we push into the weekend. Weak high pressure will arrive on the scene and help ensure dry conditions. After a cold start Saturday, a moderating trend will develop.