Category Archives: 10-day

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 07.03.22 @ 6:40a

The axis of the upper ridge will retrograde west over the upcoming week, putting our region on the outer periphery of the hot dome anchored in the Plains.
Cooler than normal temperatures are expected along the West Coast and Northeast during the upcoming 10 days as a whole. Serious heat will bake the Front Range and Plains.
To no surprise, an axis of above normal rain is anticipated to take up residence from the northern Rockies, southeast into the Ohio Valley and Deep South through the coming 10 day period.
We expect widespread rainfall between 1”-2” over the upcoming 10 day period, but there will be localized significantly heavier totals.

Forecast Period: 07.03.22 through 07.13.22

After a quiet holiday weekend, a much more active pattern will take hold as we navigate the 1st half of July. It won’t rain everyday, but chances of benefitting from soaking rain in more widespread fashion will be on the rise as we move into the middle and latter part of this week into the following week.

Serious heat will bake the Plains while a cooler pattern dominates the Northeast region. In between, here on the home front, we’ll note heat trying to expand northeast into the Ohio Valley (and there will be several 90°+ days thrown in the 10-day period), but each time it may look like the heat is here to stay for more than a few days, we’ll likely get cooling relief from cold fronts moving southeast around the periphery of the ridge.

We’ll have to pay close attention to some of the more “mature” storm complexes including a heightened threat of damaging straight line winds give the overall pattern. It’s impossible to pin down which complexes may include a better threat of severe weather from this distance, but this threat may include a closer look as we move into the middle and latter part of the week.

10-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1”-2”

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Weekly Severe And #AGwx Outlook…

Updated 06.14.22 @ 7:33a

After getting beaten down this weekend, the upper ridge will flex it’s muscle yet again next week, significantly influencing our pattern.
Widespread above normal temperatures can be expected given the 500mb pattern above from the Plains into the Southeast and up into the Great Lakes.
Widespread drier than normal conditions are anticipated from the Plains, Southeast, and up into the Ohio Valley as the ridge dominates.

Forecast Period: 06.14.22 through 06.24.22

A cold front will slide through the area Thursday with the potential of a widely scattered shower or storm. The bigger story will be a significant reduction of heat and humidity as we close out the work week and head through the weekend. After dealing with heat indices in the 105º+ range today and Wednesday, lows that drop back into the 50s this weekend sure will feel nice. After Thursday, dry conditions should dominate through the weekend.

The upper ridge will then expand northeast once again as we head into the new work week. You know what this means, oppressive heat and humidity will return next week. Like this week, the most oppressive conditions come in the Tuesday-Thursday time frame before another cold front returns us to cooler, more seasonal temperatures next weekend. Get the idea that we’re locked into a “transitional” pattern for the foreseeable future?

From a rainfall perspective, we’re in that time of year where it’s all but impossible to predict rainfall amounts down to a specific backyard (case in point yesterday where many north and eastern Indianapolis ‘burbs clocked in a quick 2″+, while others on the south and west side didn’t see a drop of rain). From an overall perspective, rainfall amounts will run well below normal over the next 7-10 days. We will keep an eye on storm clusters that may round the periphery of the upper ridge early next week, and these could influence our weather Monday into Tuesday (similar to what we dealt with yesterday).

As we look beyond the 10 day period, the ‘mean’ upper pattern should feature the ridge pulling back west and placing our immediate region into a northwesterly flow aloft to close the month of June. This should translate to relatively wetter, cooler times.

10-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ to 1.00″

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Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook: Tracking 2 Cold Fronts This Week…

Updated 05.30.22 @ 8a

With the official “unofficial” 🙂 start to summer upon us, it’s time we start to once again produce our weekly #AGwx reports. Each week, these updates will focus on the overall temperature and precipitation pattern over the upcoming 7-10 days, along with bigger severe weather or tropical items of note when needed.

The upcoming 10 days will continue to feature a very transient pattern, locally.
Overall, temperatures will average close to seasonal norms when all totaled up over the upcoming 10 days, but the way in which we get to this point will feature plenty of “ups and downs,” relative to average.
Precipitation will run very close or just slightly below normal values during the time period.

Forecast Period: 05.30.22 through 06.09.22

Our weather pattern will start off very quiet as high pressure continues to dominate. We’ll notice a bump in humidity values daily leading up to a frontal passage Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. This front will deliver scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the Mid West and Ohio Valley Wednesday. While there could be a couple of stronger storms, the severe aspect of this system is expected to be greatly diminished when compared to what our neighbors in the northern Plains and upper Mid West will see over the next couple of days.

The frontal system will pass through rather quickly and we’ll get back to a much less humid, cooler airmass Thursday, continuing into the first half of the weekend. That’s when we’ll begin to track system #2 with eyes on our immediate area Sunday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected for the 2nd half of the weekend, but it won’t rain the entire time. This will likely set the stage for a more active period to close out the 10 day as a persistent southwesterly air flow dominates.

10-day Rainfall Forecast: 1.5″ to 2.5″

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November Opens With A “Hint” Of What May Be Lurking, But Pattern Likely Not Ready To Lock-In Just Yet…

Updated 10.31.21 @ 3:06p

First and foremost, here’s wishing you and your family a very happy, safe, and fun Halloween. Late October can sure deliver “tricks” in the weather department around these parts, but thankfully we’re going to be treated to very pleasant conditions this year as the kiddos hit the streets this evening.

As we look ahead to November, unseasonably chilly air will settle into the East through the week ahead. The MJO is not a factor presently and is forecast to remain in the “null phase” through the upcoming couple weeks (at least). As such, we’ll lean heavier on the EPO/ PNA tandem to drive the pattern. For a moment, these teleconnections will help power widespread unseasonably chilly air as they are aligned in such a manner (- EPO and +PNA), but as we head towards Week 2, note how both teleconnections head towards warmer phases.

Ensemble guidance sees the chilly short-term pattern moderating in the Week 2 time period and we agree.

Overall, the upcoming (10) days should also feature a much drier regime than what we’ve seen over the past few weeks. Rainfall is forecast below normal through the first 1/3 of November.

While the growing season will come to an end in the week ahead and we continue to believe this chilly short-term pattern is a “hint” to what awaits towards the 2nd half of November, that PNA/ EPO combo suggests we’re not quite ready for the more sustained, and potentially dramatic, pattern change just yet…

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