An upper level low pressure system will track northeast today into tonight, and as it does, look for more numerous showers and embedded thunder to develop. Some localized heavier downpours are a good bet this evening across central Indiana.
Otherwise, look for considerable cloudiness and highs topping out in the lower 70s today.
While we’ll have to contend with a few showers Saturday, overall, the day should be drier compared to today and what lies ahead Sunday. Speaking of Sunday, we’re monitoring the potential of a couple of storms reaching strong to severe levels to close the weekend. The Storm Prediction Center includes central portions of the state in a “marginal” risk of severe with their update Friday morning. It wouldn’t surprise us if a portion of the marginal risk is upgraded to a “slight” risk in future updates. We’ll fine tune storm timing over the next 24 hours.
As we look ahead to the end of May, there really aren’t any significant changes to the overall warmer than normal theme we’ve enjoyed so far this month. Longer range guidance off of the European ensemble continues to support broad scale upper ridging across the Mid West and Ohio Valley and a corresponding warmer than average regime. From a precipitation perspective, the next couple of weeks do look more active compared to the dry start to the month. Case in point, the balance of the upcoming week will be dominated by a stalled frontal boundary. While we’ll have to fine tune exactly where the front stalls, daily chances of showers and thunderstorms (scattered fashion) can be expected.
…and a year-to-date that looks like this:
…sustained warmth is music to the ears of many Hoosiers! Thankfully, the balance of the upcoming (10) days will feature warmer than average conditions, as illustrated by the latest European ensemble data.
This will include multiple days with high temperatures rising into the 80s over the upcoming 10-day stretch (Tuesday and Wednesday and again next Monday through Wednesday).
As for rainfall totals, it still appears widespread amounts will check-in in the half inch to one inch range, but a few locally heavier amounts can be expected.
Models continue to dry us out in time for the weekend and all of those important Cinco de Mayo/ Derby plans. An increasingly sunny sky will be with us along with highs in the middle 70s Saturday afternoon! Can you say “perfection?”
Temperatures will remain cooler than average, but that late-April sun will feel mighty nice, especially after a couple days of “showery” overcast and 50s.
High pressure will quickly build in thereafter and lead to the best weather weekend so far this spring. Saturday and Sunday should feature plentiful sunshine both days. Morning lows will be chilly (upper 30s to lower 40s for most), but daytime highs will zoom into the 60s both days.
As we look ahead, warmth will continue to build as we open May. Lower 80s seem to be a good bet as we move into next week, but before we get into sustained warmth, another “setback” or two seems to be a good bet. We note the EPS showing this nicely as cooler anomalies return by Week 2.
It remains a drier than overall pattern over the upcoming couple weeks. The next storm of any significance is slated for an arrival late next week (Thursday time frame).
After a chilly work week (relative to average), 60s will return this weekend and temperatures will zip into the lower and middle 70s early next week, before approaching 80° by the middle of next week.
Despite the showers that will impact central Indiana today, it’s mostly a dry pattern over the upcoming 10-day period. Additional rain chances will continue Tuesday (scattered, nuisance-level) and with a frontal passage Friday. With that said, 10-day rainfall will only run between one half and three quarters of an inch for most of the region.