Category Archives: 10-day

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook: Tracking 2 Cold Fronts This Week…

Updated 05.30.22 @ 8a

With the official “unofficial” 🙂 start to summer upon us, it’s time we start to once again produce our weekly #AGwx reports. Each week, these updates will focus on the overall temperature and precipitation pattern over the upcoming 7-10 days, along with bigger severe weather or tropical items of note when needed.

The upcoming 10 days will continue to feature a very transient pattern, locally.
Overall, temperatures will average close to seasonal norms when all totaled up over the upcoming 10 days, but the way in which we get to this point will feature plenty of “ups and downs,” relative to average.
Precipitation will run very close or just slightly below normal values during the time period.

Forecast Period: 05.30.22 through 06.09.22

Our weather pattern will start off very quiet as high pressure continues to dominate. We’ll notice a bump in humidity values daily leading up to a frontal passage Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. This front will deliver scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the Mid West and Ohio Valley Wednesday. While there could be a couple of stronger storms, the severe aspect of this system is expected to be greatly diminished when compared to what our neighbors in the northern Plains and upper Mid West will see over the next couple of days.

The frontal system will pass through rather quickly and we’ll get back to a much less humid, cooler airmass Thursday, continuing into the first half of the weekend. That’s when we’ll begin to track system #2 with eyes on our immediate area Sunday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected for the 2nd half of the weekend, but it won’t rain the entire time. This will likely set the stage for a more active period to close out the 10 day as a persistent southwesterly air flow dominates.

10-day Rainfall Forecast: 1.5″ to 2.5″

No Comments 10-day, AG Report, Client, Ensemble Discussion, Forecast Discussion, Plant ‘22

November Opens With A “Hint” Of What May Be Lurking, But Pattern Likely Not Ready To Lock-In Just Yet…

Updated 10.31.21 @ 3:06p

First and foremost, here’s wishing you and your family a very happy, safe, and fun Halloween. Late October can sure deliver “tricks” in the weather department around these parts, but thankfully we’re going to be treated to very pleasant conditions this year as the kiddos hit the streets this evening.

As we look ahead to November, unseasonably chilly air will settle into the East through the week ahead. The MJO is not a factor presently and is forecast to remain in the “null phase” through the upcoming couple weeks (at least). As such, we’ll lean heavier on the EPO/ PNA tandem to drive the pattern. For a moment, these teleconnections will help power widespread unseasonably chilly air as they are aligned in such a manner (- EPO and +PNA), but as we head towards Week 2, note how both teleconnections head towards warmer phases.

Ensemble guidance sees the chilly short-term pattern moderating in the Week 2 time period and we agree.

Overall, the upcoming (10) days should also feature a much drier regime than what we’ve seen over the past few weeks. Rainfall is forecast below normal through the first 1/3 of November.

While the growing season will come to an end in the week ahead and we continue to believe this chilly short-term pattern is a “hint” to what awaits towards the 2nd half of November, that PNA/ EPO combo suggests we’re not quite ready for the more sustained, and potentially dramatic, pattern change just yet…

No Comments 10-day, Autumn, Client, Ensemble Discussion, EPO, First Freeze, Forecast Discussion, Halloween, Harvest21, Long Range Discussion, PNA, Rain

March To-Date And Looking Ahead…

March to-date is running warmer and wetter than average across not only central Indiana, but a good chunk of the central and eastern part of the country.

Officially, Indianapolis is running 5.3° above normal, month-to-date.

For comparative purposes, our March Temperature Outlook is above. It’ll be interesting to see how everything shakes out by month’s end.

We anticipated a wet month, as well, into the middle MS Valley into the Ohio Valley, and eastern Lakes/ Northeast.

Indianapolis is running a little more than 1″ above normal in the rainfall department, and this will grow larger as we progress through the next (10) days.

This upcoming week, alone, we expect storm systems to deliver rain Sunday PM, Tuesday PM, and again late Thursday into Friday. Widespread central Indiana rainfall totals are currently pegged between 1″ and 1.5″, but given the pattern, it wouldn’t surprise me to see those numbers increase as we go forward. Thankfully, there aren’t any storms on the immediate horizon that look to be big severe weather producers, locally.

The remainder of March looks wetter than normal from the TN Valley, into the Ohio Valley and Northeast.

Despite this weekend’s chill, the balance of what’s left in the month should run well above average across the eastern half of the country.

More on what we think April will provide a bit later…

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