Category Archives: 10-day

After A Quiet Open To January, Busy Times Return…

Updated 01.09.23 @ 6:56a

Month to date, IND is running slightly behind average in the precipitation department. As we look ahead at this week, and beyond, it seems like we’re poised to make up for lost time in that regard.

A hyper active Pacific jet will hand multiple storms off to the east in the coming week to 10 days. The first of which will arrive the middle of this week as low pressure moves from the central Plains into the eastern Great Lakes.

Rain will overspread the region Wednesday and we still need to monitor the possibility of a transition to wet snow Thursday.

Additional storm systems of note are dialed up Sunday night and Monday and again the middle of next week.

No Comments 10-day, Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, snow, Weather Rambles

“January Thaw” Is An Understatement…

Updated 01.06.23 @ 7a

For some perspective on just how warm this January pattern is, the average high this time of year (in Indianapolis) is 36°. The average LOW to open up Jan ‘23 has been 42°. IND is currently running an amazing 19.2° above normal on the month.

Despite the MJO moving into the classic phases for eastern cold, the positive (and at times strongly so) EPO is looking to continue flooding the country with unseasonably mild air over the next couple weeks at a minimum. While 60° may be tough to come by, multiple 50°+ days are on tap in this pattern during the Week 2 time period as the EPO strengthens its positive hold.

The next (10) days overall will also feature drier than normal conditions across our neck of the woods.

No Comments 10-day, Client, Ensemble Discussion, EPO, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Long Range Discussion, MJO, Spring Tease, Unseasonably Warm

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 07.03.22 @ 6:40a

The axis of the upper ridge will retrograde west over the upcoming week, putting our region on the outer periphery of the hot dome anchored in the Plains.
Cooler than normal temperatures are expected along the West Coast and Northeast during the upcoming 10 days as a whole. Serious heat will bake the Front Range and Plains.
To no surprise, an axis of above normal rain is anticipated to take up residence from the northern Rockies, southeast into the Ohio Valley and Deep South through the coming 10 day period.
We expect widespread rainfall between 1”-2” over the upcoming 10 day period, but there will be localized significantly heavier totals.

Forecast Period: 07.03.22 through 07.13.22

After a quiet holiday weekend, a much more active pattern will take hold as we navigate the 1st half of July. It won’t rain everyday, but chances of benefitting from soaking rain in more widespread fashion will be on the rise as we move into the middle and latter part of this week into the following week.

Serious heat will bake the Plains while a cooler pattern dominates the Northeast region. In between, here on the home front, we’ll note heat trying to expand northeast into the Ohio Valley (and there will be several 90°+ days thrown in the 10-day period), but each time it may look like the heat is here to stay for more than a few days, we’ll likely get cooling relief from cold fronts moving southeast around the periphery of the ridge.

We’ll have to pay close attention to some of the more “mature” storm complexes including a heightened threat of damaging straight line winds give the overall pattern. It’s impossible to pin down which complexes may include a better threat of severe weather from this distance, but this threat may include a closer look as we move into the middle and latter part of the week.

10-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1”-2”

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Weekly Severe And #AGwx Outlook…

Updated 06.14.22 @ 7:33a

After getting beaten down this weekend, the upper ridge will flex it’s muscle yet again next week, significantly influencing our pattern.
Widespread above normal temperatures can be expected given the 500mb pattern above from the Plains into the Southeast and up into the Great Lakes.
Widespread drier than normal conditions are anticipated from the Plains, Southeast, and up into the Ohio Valley as the ridge dominates.

Forecast Period: 06.14.22 through 06.24.22

A cold front will slide through the area Thursday with the potential of a widely scattered shower or storm. The bigger story will be a significant reduction of heat and humidity as we close out the work week and head through the weekend. After dealing with heat indices in the 105º+ range today and Wednesday, lows that drop back into the 50s this weekend sure will feel nice. After Thursday, dry conditions should dominate through the weekend.

The upper ridge will then expand northeast once again as we head into the new work week. You know what this means, oppressive heat and humidity will return next week. Like this week, the most oppressive conditions come in the Tuesday-Thursday time frame before another cold front returns us to cooler, more seasonal temperatures next weekend. Get the idea that we’re locked into a “transitional” pattern for the foreseeable future?

From a rainfall perspective, we’re in that time of year where it’s all but impossible to predict rainfall amounts down to a specific backyard (case in point yesterday where many north and eastern Indianapolis ‘burbs clocked in a quick 2″+, while others on the south and west side didn’t see a drop of rain). From an overall perspective, rainfall amounts will run well below normal over the next 7-10 days. We will keep an eye on storm clusters that may round the periphery of the upper ridge early next week, and these could influence our weather Monday into Tuesday (similar to what we dealt with yesterday).

As we look beyond the 10 day period, the ‘mean’ upper pattern should feature the ridge pulling back west and placing our immediate region into a northwesterly flow aloft to close the month of June. This should translate to relatively wetter, cooler times.

10-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ to 1.00″

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