Category Archives: 10-day

Tuesday Morning Rambles: A Much More Active Pattern Takes Foot…

Updated 11.28.23 @7:16a

The coldest air of the season is greeting us out the door this morning, complete with snow flurries and wind chill values around zero. Safe to say that the heavy winter gear is needed today as highs struggle to crack 30° later on.

We’re waking up to 10s this morning with wind chill values near 0°.
Snow flurries and scattered light snow showers compliment the arctic intrusion this morning. No accumulation of significance is expected.

The upper pattern will transition to a milder (no blow torch by any means) and more active regime as we navigate the next 6-10 days. Most, if not all, storm systems will feature “wet vs. white” weather here over this particular time period.

Dry times return Wednesday only to give way to increasing clouds and widespread rain Thursday PM into Friday. The overall gloomy and damp pattern will prevail over the weekend and into early next week. Needless to say, enjoy whatever sunshine you can get later today and Wednesday.

Wetter than normal times return late week into early Week 2.

It continues to look like the potential is there for more appreciable cold to get back involved with the pattern after mid-month and especially closer to the holidays.

No Comments 10-day, Arctic Cold, Autumn, Christmas/ Thanksgiving, Client, Ensemble Discussion, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles

Sunny Start To The New Week Takes A Gloomy Turn…

Updated 11.05.23 @ 1p

You sure would be hard pressed to find more pleasant weather conditions by early November standards. Plentiful sunshine can be expected today as high temperatures head into the 60s. While we’ll add clouds (and big wind gusts) Monday, highs will zoom into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Southwest gusts will approach 40 MPH at times to open the work week. We’ll keep the warm theme going through midweek.

Gusty southwest breezes can be expected as we open the work week.

A cold front will move through the region Wednesday evening. Forecast models continue to differ on rainfall amounts with this frontal passage, but excessive rain isn’t expected.

In general, this looks like a 0.10” to 0.25” type event but note the wetter European and drier GFS solutions below. Expect more agreement in the coming day or 2. Regardless, this isn’t a “big deal” type of event by any means.

Expect a more seasonable brand of air to filter in as we close the work week and head into and through the upcoming weekend. Dry conditions will also return. Highs will settle back into the lower 50s with overnight lows around freezing.

Speaking of dry, the theme over the next couple weeks as a whole continues to look drier and quieter than normal.

No Comments 10-day, Autumn, Client, Ensemble Discussion, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Harvest23, Rain, Unseasonably Warm, Windy

Briefly Warmer; Blustery Close To The Week With Rain And A Few Storms…

Updated 10.11.23 @ 7:42a

A cold front and associated area of low pressure will move through the Ohio Valley as we close the week. Briefly warmer air will surge north into the region Thursday and Friday with temperatures flirting with 80° both days.

Moisture levels will also increase as dew points creep up closer towards 60°.

A weakening area of rain and embedded storms will rumble into the state late Friday and Friday night. Widespread severe weather isn’t expected but the Storm Prediction Center outlines the far western portion of the state in a marginal risk, primarily for a wind threat. We still bracket 0.25” to 0.75” rain potential.

Speaking of wind, non-thunderstorm gusts towards 30 MPH can be expected Friday and Saturday.

With the cold core upper low hanging around, additional spotty showers, mixed with graupel, can be expected over the weekend into early next week.

The theme over the next couple weeks is for cooler than normal conditions to dominate overall.

No Comments 10-day, Autumn, Client, Ensemble Discussion, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Harvest23, Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Windy

Long Range Outlook Into October: Reason To Be Suspicious Of The Warm Look…

Updated 09.22.23 @ 10:41a

The pattern over the next 10 days will continue the same warmer than normal theme we’ve grown accustomed to as of late. Keep in mind that “normals” have now fallen into the lower to middle 70s for highs and lower 50s at night. Certainly far from a “blow torch,” but temperatures will run 5° to 10° above the norm as we put a bow on September.

Short-term rain chances will be handled in our daily videos. Guidance continues to differ widely on our mid week system. Needless to say, we’re not overly optimistic on the wetter solutions as of now, but will closely monitor to see if more consistency develops down the road.

As a whole, the pattern continues to look drier than normal over the next couple weeks overall.

Week 1

Week 2

While guidance continues to look warm into early and mid October, I have to raise an eyebrow based on the latest teleconnection trends. We note the EPO trending negative while the PNA pops positive. These drivers should force a colder look Week 2 into Week 3 and I would suspect guidance will cool significantly as we get closer.

Further down the road, it’ll be important to keep tabs on western Pacific typhoon activity and the Madden Julian Oscillation. There are signs we may finally start to see the MJO become more of a player in the pattern towards mid October. Time will tell.

In the meantime, keep a close eye on guidance Week 2 into Week 3 as this will be the first real test case to revisit so far this meteorological fall season…

No Comments 10-day, Autumn, Client, Ensemble Discussion, EPO, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Harvest23, Long Range Discussion, MJO, PNA, Rain, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm