Spring will most certainly be in the air this week, at least for some. At the same time, there will be all sorts of whaling and gnashing of teeth for other areas that will be close to basking in the warmth, but yet so far at the same time. Note the significant temperature gradient that will set up shop across the region in the Tuesday through Thursday time frame.
A well organized area of low pressure will ride east along the stalled boundary separating the chill and near record breaking warmth. This feature will be responsible for widespread rain, locally, and an icy mixture of precipitation across the southern Great Lakes region. Steadiest rain will likely fall Wednesday evening and night before drier, colder air works in here to close the work week.
Despite a widespread 0.50” to 1” of rain during the aforementioned time period, at least the southern 2/3 of the state will enjoy 60°+ (in some cases 70°) weather midweek. Yes, spring fever will be running rampant.
We’ll likely do this all over again late in the weekend or early next week…
Just as many are getting ready to bust into full blown spring mode, it’s becoming increasingly apparent that Mother Nature has other ideas.
We note the most powerful teleconnection (especially by late winter and early spring standards) is set to head into cold phases to close Feb and open March.
NAO
That said, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is looking like it’ll be more stubborn (has been the story this year with respect to getting all of the pattern drivers to align). Based on the latest guidance, a rumble through warm Phase 7 is possible before the MJO heads into the traditionally cold Phase 8 early March. This will be critical in the ultimate pattern progression as we get into the 1st month of meteorological spring.
As a result, from a temperature standpoint, the period from now through the end of February likely continues the warmer than normal theme. That’s not to say there won’t be cold “jabs,” similar to what we saw Friday, but the longevity of cold will be fleeting given the drivers above. There’s no reason to argue with the upcoming 10-day period to essentially close out February from the European ensemble:
It’s also a rather active pattern, including at least slightly above normal precipitation throughout the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, to close the month.
While “proof is in the pudding,” especially this year, it appears as if the MJO and NAO will align to force a shift in the regime towards more sustained cold (relative to normal) as we push through the 1st half of March. Interestingly, the new European Weeklies also highlight this, and are “all-in” on a colder than normal March as a whole.
The period features a wetter than normal look, as well:
Despite what you might believe (or hope) at this point, we’re likely not finished with the accumulating snow prospects, either…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/02/17/video-cold-close-to-the-work-week-sunshine-returns-this-weekend-and-looking-ahead-to-our-next-storm-system/
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/02/15/video-spring-tease-rain-returns-tomorrow-morning-along-with-a-strong-storm-threat-downstate/
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First and foremost, we’ll have a fresh video discussion posted later this evening with updated thoughts on the chances of a few stronger storms up this way Thursday.
With only a couple weeks left in “meteorological winter,” many are asking is this it for the little cold and snow we’ve seen, relatively speaking? The short, easy answer to that question is “no,” but we wanted to dig in further and see if there are any reasons to buy into more of a prolonged period of colder than normal conditions on the horizon.
February is running close to 5° above average month to date. A large reason behind the warmth is thanks to the MJO rolling through the warm phases (remember, Phases 4 and 5 in February features large-scale eastern on CONUS wide upper ridging, as shown below).
That said, as we rumble through the few weeks, model data suggests the MJO will race towards traditionally colder phases (and stormy, too) as we close February and head into the first month of meteorological spring.
Draw your attention to the purple in Phase 8. A cycle through this phase at late February and March would bring a period (and more than just a day or two) or substantially colder than normal temperatures into the region.
That then begs the question, what comes of the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and the PNA (Pacific North America pattern). Let’s take the latter first. I think it’ll be hard to completely shake the southeast ridge in this pattern. Despite the Nina fading, the influence on the greater regime still is quite pronounced and in some shape or form, I believe the negative PNA holds. That said, we do note the longer range guidance flipping the NAO negative as we get into March. Note the GEFS Extended below (should be noted that the European Weeklies also develop a negative NAO in March). Long time followers of IndyWx know as much as I don’t get excited about the NAO influence in Nov. or Dec., I jump all over this particular teleconnection late winter and spring. Why? In my research, it’s apparent the impacts and longer term effects of a negative NAO are much stronger across the eastern half of the country in Feb through early April.
Despite the resistance that will likely continue in some shape or form from the negative PNA, should we, indeed, see the MJO and NAO move into the expected phases shown above, this will set our region up for a 2-3 week period of colder than normal and stormy conditions just at the time most are wanting spring to come on with authority. Time will tell!
In the meantime, we look forward to having a fresh video discussion posted later this evening around the prospects of Thursday storms. Enjoy your Monday!
Updated 02.12.23 @ 8:27a After a gorgeous Super Bowl Sunday, we’re tracking 2 systems of note in the work week ahead. The first of which is of little significance Tuesday,…
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