February 9, 2023 archive

Feb 09

MJO And Other Drivers Aligning For Cold Close To Meteorological Winter; Open To Spring?

Updated 02.09.23 @ 8:53p

After a bitter Christmas period, the “snap back” came on with authority. The mild start to the year has carried into February. A look at the past (30) days:

Despite multiple attempts, the cold “jabs” haven’t had any staying power. In the short term (upcoming 10-14 days), an overall milder than normal regime will carry the day.

With that said, longer range teleconnections are providing clues that the pattern may, indeed, begin to resemble a more sustained colder than normal temperature regime by late February, continuing through the bulk of March:

Negative NAO:

Negative WPO:

Negative AO:

Negative EPO:

Then, perhaps most significant, the MJO is showing signs of cycling in Phase 8 to close February and open March.

Both periods feature a cold, to much colder than normal, pattern in Phase 8:

MJO Phase 8: Feb

MJO Phase 8: March

Perhaps the latest European Weeklies for late Feb through late March are onto the correct idea…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/02/09/mjo-and-other-drivers-aligning-for-cold-close-to-meteorological-winter-open-to-spring/

Feb 09

Storms Rumble In This Morning; Damaging Wind Threat Increases Late Morning Through The Afternoon…

Updated 02.09.23 @ 5:45a

After a wet night, a line of storms will rumble through central Indiana over the next couple hours. These will likely precede some brief clearing as we move into the late morning hours.

A line of storms will lift northeast across the region this morning.

While the storms will remain below severe levels, non thunderstorm wind gusts very well may approach, if not exceed, severe criteria late morning through the afternoon. Gusts approaching 60 MPH are a good bet in spots through the region. Unfortunately some power outages and tree damage is expected across the area through the evening.

After a mild start to the day, temperatures will fall around lunchtime through the 40s and into the 30s by the evening rush.

Much more later today in our updated video discussion, including a look at the longer range pattern to close February and into March, along with a first idea of the summer pattern!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/02/09/storms-rumble-in-this-morning-damaging-wind-threat-increases-late-morning-through-the-afternoon/

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