Temperatures will run well above normal across the Midwest, Great Lakes and points east and south through the upcoming week. Cooler air will penetrate the northwest.
More active times will spread into the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic in the week ahead. Meanwhile, the Southeast remains bone dry.
Rainfall totals should check in between 0.50″ and 1″ for most central IN rain gauges during the 7-day period.
Best chances of severe weather this week will actually take place today across the High Plains.
Forecast Period: 05.23.21 through 05.30.21
A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate our weather through the early week period. With high pressure in control, we can expect a continuation of mostly dry and unseasonably hot weather through Tuesday. That will all begin to change by midweek as the ridge breaks down and an approaching cold front creates better chances of showers and thunderstorms. This frontal passage will be followed by a wave of low pressure that will push through the Ohio Valley Thursday night and Friday. This low pressure system will likely feature a renewed opportunity of moderate rain and thunderstorms to close the work week. The good news is that model consensus keeps the all-important Saturday through Monday period rain-free (finger’s crossed that holds) and much cooler.
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/05/22/video-all-eyes-on-the-upcoming-big-race-and-memorial-day-weekend-cooler-times-loom-to-open-june/
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/05/20/video-increasingly-warm-and-dry-short-term-gives-way-to-a-wetter-pattern-to-close-may-open-june/
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Updated 05.17.21 @ 7:51a The transition to a more summer-like regime is being kicked off with showers and embedded thunder this morning. As we look forward to the rest of…
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Scattered light showers are scooting across central Indiana this morning but our airmass still will take some time to saturate throughout all levels. As such, we don’t expect widespread heavy rain and embedded thunder until we get into the new work week. You’ll notice an increasingly muggy time of things Monday and Tuesday. Note the Gulf connection below. This will send dew points well into the 60s. Temperatures will also be on the rise (low/mid 80s) which will have things feeling very much like summer by mid and late week.
The transition of air masses will lead to a stretch of unsettled weather. We note model guidance has trended wetter over the past 24 hours for immediate central Indiana. We’re now honing in on Monday evening into Tuesday morning offering up the most widespread heavy rain and embedded thunder. Locally heavy rain will be possible during this timeframe. Some central Indiana rain gauges may pick up more than 2” of rain during this time period. Widespread 1.25” to 1.75” amounts can be expected.
Scattered, “splash and dash” storms will remain in our forecast into midweek before high pressure nudges itself into place and promotes a drier regime for the 2nd half of the week.
Temperatures will run slightly above normal (for a change) across a good chunk of the country through the upcoming 7 days. Only exception to this will be across the South.
The Heartland will be in the cross hairs of a multi day heavy rain event this week. Meanwhile, from the central and Ohio Valley and points east we’re looking at a continued dry stretch.
Central Indiana can expect between 1” and 1.5” of rain in the week ahead on average.
This will be an active week for the Plains as a multi day severe weather episode compliments what will also be an evolving flood risk.
Forecast Period: 05.15.21 through 05.22.21
Change is ahead over the upcoming week towards a pattern more typical of what we’d come to expect this time of year. We’ll say goodbye to the cool, crisp air in the short term period and replace it with an increasingly warm and muggy feel of things. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this transition. While the chances of widespread heavy rain are diminishing, we will see scattered to numerous showers and storms during the early and middle part of the work week. These will be of the “splash and dash” variety and certainly won’t require any cancellation of outdoor plans. High pressure appears like it’ll nudge its way into the region Wednesday night, allowing us to enjoy another stretch of dry conditions as we close the work week and head into next weekend.
