April 2021 archive

VIDEO: Pleasant Open To The Weekend; Don’t Put Those Jackets Away…

Updated 04.30.21 @ 7:41a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/04/30/video-pleasant-open-to-the-weekend-dont-put-those-jackets-away/

Long Range Update: Wetter May Trends And MJO Influence…

Updated: 04.29.21 @ 7:42a

Before we dig into some of the wetter trends being shown on the majority of forecast models, let’s review the basis of the medium to longer range forecast through the 1st half of May.

We’ll start with the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation). This is forecast to be quite amplified into May, swinging through Phases 1, 2, and 3. These are cooler than normal phases this time of year. Phases 2 and especially 3 are wet.

The 2 primary teleconnections we lean on this time of year include the EPO (East Pacific Oscillation) and PNA (Pacific North American pattern). While we still keep close tabs on the NAO, the influence it has begins to wane compared to late winter into mid spring. In any event, the EPO is largely forecast positive (a warm signal) while the PNA is forecast negative (also a warm signal).

Let’s dig into the data. As it’s Thursday, we’ll start by taking a look at the new JMA Weeklies. Wetter than normal with seasonal temperatures sum up the upcoming 3-4 weeks.

The CFSv2 Weeklies show a wet, cool (compared to normal) theme for our neck of the woods. Warmth is constant across the Southeast.

The GEFS and EPS are in relatively good agreement as we look at the upcoming couple of weeks. Both show a wetter than normal pattern from TX into the Northeast, including the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.

The GEFS is trending significantly cooler in the Week 2 timeframe and given where the MJO is heading, it wouldn’t surprise us if other models cool from where they currently are during this time period.

While the EPS is trending cooler Week 2, it’s not nearly to the magnitude of what the GEFS shows above.

Given the pattern drivers discussed to start, we should enter a rather active weather pattern into the 1st couple weeks of May. While these are likely to be fast moving storm systems (usually not depositing excessive rainfall amounts), the frequency of the systems will likely add up over time (above normal rainfall). The wetter trends depicted on the modeling are hard to ignore. I would also keep close tabs on that Week 2 timeframe for the potential of cooler trends to show up and feel the GEFS is doing the best job from this distance.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/04/29/long-range-update-wetter-may-trends-and-mjo-influence/

VIDEO: Stormy At Times Through Thursday; Sunshine Returns Along With Cooler Air To Close The Week…

Updated 04.28.21 @ 7:45a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/04/28/video-stormy-at-times-through-thursday-sunshine-returns-along-with-cooler-air-to-close-the-week/

VIDEO: Wet Weather Midweek; Looking Ahead To #Plant21 Conditions As We Head Into May…

Updated 04.27.21 @ 8:27a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/04/27/video-wet-weather-midweek-looking-ahead-to-plant21-conditions-as-we-head-into-may/

VIDEO: Pleasant Open To The Week Gives Way To Rain/ Storms By Wednesday; Better Agreement On Where Heaviest Rain Sets Up…

Updated 04.26.21 @ 7:45a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/04/26/video-pleasant-open-to-the-week-gives-way-to-rain-storms-by-wednesday-better-agreement-on-where-heaviest-rain-sets-up/

VIDEO: Two Big Different Solutions When It Comes To The Placement Of HVY Rain Midweek…

Updated 04.25.21 @ 8:17a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/04/25/video-two-big-different-solutions-when-it-comes-to-the-placement-of-hvy-rain-midweek/

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 04.24.21 @ 9:51a

Temperatures will moderate from the unseasonably cold conditions as of late. We’ll make a run for 80° by Tuesday here in central IN.
Above normal rainfall is expected in the week ahead from the mid MS Valley and Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.
We forecast most central IN rain gauges to receive between 1.75″ and 2.25″ in the week ahead.
A new spring storm will emerge out of the Plains Tuesday and likely ignite a round of severe weather throughout tornado alley.

Forecast Period: 04.24.21 through 05.01.21

A relatively weak storm system will lead to plenty of clouds today and a couple of light passing showers (better chance of steadier rain downstate). This system will blow by to our east tonight and allow a drier air mass to build into the region as we move through the 2nd half of the weekend, complete with a return of sunshine! Enjoy the sunny and much warmer open to the week as significant changes await by Wednesday. Before this, a strengthening southwesterly air flow will push high temperatures into the lower 80s Tuesday! Attention will then shift to a complex and multifaceted storm system that will deliver heavy rain and thunderstorms (potential present for a couple stronger storms midweek that we’ll continue to monitor) in rounds Wednesday through Friday. While it won’t rain the entire timeframe, periods of heavier rain can be expected. We’ll dry things back out heading into next weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/04/24/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-28/

VIDEO: Tracking 2 Storm Systems Over The Upcoming 7-Day Period…

Updated 04.23.21 @ 8a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/04/23/video-tracking-2-storm-systems-over-the-upcoming-7-day-period/

VIDEO: Snap-back Ahead, But Likely Transitional; Reasons We’re Leaning Towards A Cooler Than Normal May…

Updated 04.22.21 @ 8a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/04/22/video-snap-back-ahead-but-likely-transitional-reasons-were-leaning-towards-a-cooler-than-normal-may/

VIDEO: Wintry Start To The Day Gives Way To Additional Snow Showers This Afternoon; Wet Saturday Ahead…

Updated 04.21.21 @ 7:25a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/04/21/video-wintry-start-to-the-day-gives-way-to-additional-snow-showers-this-afternoon-wet-saturday-ahead/

IndyWx.com