June 2020 archive

Early July: Transitional Heat; Active Times…

As we near the midpoint of meteorological summer (June, July, and August), we wanted to take a look at the season so far. Specifically for Indianapolis, summer 2020 thus far is running 2° above normal with rainfall (through June 21st) running below normal to the tune of 1.84″.

We’ve covered the shorter-term and increased chances of rain within that should bring the month closer to average when all is said and done, but we wanted to spend a little more time this afternoon looking ahead to the Independence Day holiday and 1st half of July, overall. As a reminder, our official July Outlook will be posted next week.

Similar to June, the first half of July is likely to promote a transitional upper air pattern. Part of this can be thanked to the EPO and recent SOI activity. In this transitional pattern, the expectation is that an upper level ridge will temporarily setup shop over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes during the first few days of the month (Independence Day weekend included) which will support drier and hotter conditions. With such a pattern, temperatures should climb to the hottest levels of the season thus far (a couple days in the lower to middle 90s aren’t out of the question). While an isolated to widely scattered storm is possible, organized rain will be hard to come by during the medium range (July 2-6) time frame.

Thereafter, notice how the upper ridge begins to retrograde west. Ultimately, this is likely signaling the predominant upper pattern through mid and late summer (still think the most persistent heat and dryness takes up shop across the West into the Plains at times). More important to central Indiana with such a pattern is that this will likely put us in play for more organized rain and storm events as disturbances ride the periphery around the ‘mean’ upper ridge position. After a dry, hot first few days of the month, wetter and cooler times would likely ensue in the longer range (post July 6).

We’ll continue to keep close tabs on things and have our complete monthly outlook up next week. Just wanted to give you an idea this evening on some early thinking as the holiday weekend looms…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/22/early-july-transitional-heat-active-times/

VIDEO: Week-Ahead Outlook; Storms Followed By Less Humid Air Into Midweek…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/22/video-week-ahead-outlook-storms-followed-by-less-humid-air-into-midweek/

VIDEO: Increasingly Active, Wetter Pattern To Close Out June And Open July…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/21/video-increasingly-active-wetter-pattern-to-close-out-june-and-open-july/

VIDEO: Hot First Day Of Summer; Better Rain Chances Return Into Early Next Week…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/20/video-hot-first-day-of-summer-better-rain-chances-return-into-early-next-week/

Timing Out Rain Chances Into Next Week; Sniffing Out The Early July Pattern…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/19/timing-out-rain-chances-into-next-week-sniffing-out-the-early-july-pattern/

Long Range Update: Changes Afoot…

Looking at a simple snapshot of the latest sea surface temperature anomaly map would suggest a La Nina is brewing (image 1), BUT the latest SOI (Southern Oscillation Index, also knows as the SOI) suggests otherwise (images 2-3):

In fact, the SOI values noted would suggest an El Nino is coming on. The daily hit of more than 30 suggests some wild swings in the weather over the upcoming couple of weeks across the Lower 48. Now, we still anticipate this to transition more towards a positive direction and a subsequent La Nina to, indeed, develop by fall and winter, but this is worth continuing to pay attention to and we’ll do just that.

As we look at June to-date across central Indiana, temperatures are running a little more than 2° above normal and precipitation is just over 1″ below normal. Given the pattern ahead, we continue to like where we stand with our June forecast overall: near-average precipitation and temperatures. This will, obviously take a wetter, cooler shift in the regime as we move through the next 10-12 days. Overall, that’s where we continue to believe we’re heading.

The latest JMA Weeklies hot off the press shows this big cool, wet change across our region. A series of troughs are shown to descend into the Ohio Valley during the next 10-16 days. As the individual cold fronts sweep through the region, better chances of rain will result and temperatures will run cooler than normal, overall.

Week 1

Week 2

The latest GEFS data is very similar in this wet, cool shift.

Days 4-10
Days 10-16
Days 6-10
Days 10-14

There’s support for this pattern in looking at the latest East Pacific Oscillation, as well. Negative values support central/ eastern cool and periods of transition from positive to negative (and vice-versa) also can help promote wet/ more active periods.

The MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is a “sneaky” wild card in all of this. Note how the MJO is currently shown to slowly move through Phase 2 before going into the wheelhouse and emerging into Phase 8 by month’s end. While certainly not highly amplified, this is enough to have impacts. Note that Phases 2 and 8 this time of year maintain a cooler look, locally.

In summary, though it’s certainly been dry over the past couple of weeks, we think there’s more than enough reason not to fret. Not only are we looking at a pattern that should keep the heat (at least in a prolonged sense) west of our region, but the pattern drivers above should also result in a much more active regime with frontal passages and associated areas of low pressure moving through the region. This will begin in earnest early next week and continue through Week 2.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/18/long-range-update-changes-afoot/

VIDEO: “Cut Off” Low Lifts North; Looking Ahead To An Unsettled Close To June…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/17/video-cut-off-low-lifts-north-looking-ahead-to-an-unsettled-close-to-june/

VIDEO: Quiet Weather Continues For Now, But Changes Arrive This Weekend And Next Week Looks Much More Active…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/16/video-quiet-weather-continues-for-now-but-changes-arrive-this-weekend-and-next-week-looks-much-more-active/

VIDEO: Timing Out When Rain/ Storm Chances Return…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/15/video-timing-out-when-rain-storm-chances-return/

VIDEO: Short-Medium Range Update Looking At the Week Ahead…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/14/video-short-medium-range-update-looking-at-the-week-ahead/

IndyWx.com