I. Unseasonably cool weather dominates the area to open the period with a late warming trend.
II. Widespread dry conditions persist through the upcoming week.
Between the cool pattern to open the period and warmth to end, temperatures will balance out very close to “average” for the period as a whole.
The forecast period will run much drier than normal from the Plains and points east. The one exception? Along the Carolina coast, thanks to a stalled cold front.
We’re only forecasting 0.10″ to 0.25″ over the upcoming 7-day period across central Indiana.
Forecast Period: 06.13.20 through 06.20.20
A very quiet weather pattern is ahead through the forecast period. A weak disturbance will move southeast this morning across the region. While northern parts of the state picked up measurable rainfall this morning, most of this will scoot east of immediate central Indiana. This system will also serve to reinforce the cool pattern in place into early parts of next week. In fact, overnight lows tonight will fall into the 40s as far south as central Indiana. Anyone else craving fall?! The pattern beyond will feature a warming trend along with continued dry weather. Heat and humidity will build in earnest late in the period along with an opportunity for scattered showers and thunderstorms next weekend ahead of an approaching cold front. Between now and then, enjoy the quiet conditions.
The balance of the upcoming 7-10 days will feature bone dry conditions across central Indiana. A fast moving disturbance will drop southeast Saturday and could spawn a scattered shower across central Indiana, but we believe the more concentrated rain activity will remain to our east and southwest. If you do see a Saturday shower, count yourself lucky! This disturbance and associated cold front will serve to reinforce the dry airmass currently in place, along with bring temperatures down another couple of “notches” for the weekend (wouldn’t be surprised if some outlying areas get into the 40s Sunday or Monday mornings).
As we look ahead, a ridge of high pressure will dominate next week’s weather pattern. An extended stretch of dry (pleasant humidity levels), sunny days can be expected with a slow warming trend.
A ridge of high pressure will dominate our weather pattern next week as a “cut off” low tracks into the Southeast and Carolinas. The end result will be an extended period of dry weather for our region.
Things begin to get a little more “murky” late next week as forecast model solutions differ significantly. The new GFS forecast model drives a cold front into the Ohio Valley before stalling out as multiple disturbances ride along the boundary. This would lead to needed rain (and potentially heavy rain at that) late next week into next weekend. Meanwhile, the European model isn’t nearly as excited about this wet weather potential. The reality likely lies somewhere in between and we’ll trend our forecast wetter late week, but hold on the heavy rain threat for now. Stay tuned.
With that said, we do believe (given the pattern drivers discussed below) that the wetter trends shown on the GFS ensemble data in the Week 2 (and beyond) time frame has validity.
Precipitation anomalies Days 6-12
Precipitation anomalies Days 10-16
The latest JMA Weekly data also shows a similar wet idea during this time period.
As we look at the PNA and EPO, the transition in both teleconnections next week do give credence to the wetter them shown above during the said period.
Additionally, the positive PNA (image 1 above) and negative EPO (image 2 above) argue for the possibility of another period of cool weather to wrap up the month. This would come after transitional heat late next week.
The GEFS is cooler than the European during this time frame. Given the above, it wouldn’t surprise us if the Euro is forced to cool as we get closer to this period.
We’re undoubtedly entering into a critical time frame for the remainder of the summer. The upcoming couple of weeks will go a long way in determining the balance of the rest of this season. Despite the short-term dry pattern, we do believe (at least locally), rain will return before things get out of hand. The same may not be able to be said just to our west. It’s there (more from the Rockies into the Plains) where we think July heat will build in more significant fashion with the drier soils.
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