June 5, 2019 archive

A few days into June, Indianapolis is running half a degree below normal and 0.57″ below normal in the rainfall department.

Coolest anomalies have been focused over the Great Lakes region. A good portion of the region is running below average early on this month in the rainfall department, with the exception being the eastern Great Lakes.

As we look ahead, the MJO is forecast to move through Phases 3 and 4 with its eyes set on Phase 5 late month.

The relative “transient” warmth now lines up perfectly with Phase 3, but note the cooler pattern that Phase(s) 4-5 typically delivers.

As a side note, there’s reason to believe this rather hyper MJO will continue, carrying us into the cooler Phases 6-8 as we move into the heart of the summer.

To no surprise, the medium and long range guidance is going towards a cooler than normal and unseasonably refreshing look as we move through the mid month period and into late June.

The Climate Forecast System agrees:

As for rainfall, we’ll use our short-term updates to handle the Weeks 1-2 period, but as we look ahead to mid-June, the pattern is expected to feature above normal rainfall across the Mid West and into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.