May 2019 archive

Stormy Evening Is Replaced With Cooler And Drier Air; Looking Ahead To The Busy Weekend On Deck…

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to march east across the state this evening. As has already been the case, the primary concern with this line of storms will be damaging straight line winds and the NWS has been busy issuing warnings this evening.

The line will pass into eastern Indiana over the next hour, or so, before weakening as it rumbles into Ohio.

Much cooler and drier air will work in overnight and you’ll certainly notice the difference out the door in the morning. Lows will fall into the lower 50s by morning. We’ll go even lower than that Tuesday morning with widespread middle 40s expected.

Resurgent warmth and humidity will make a return for the 2nd half of the week and with it will come that sultry feel. As a new heat ridge takes up residence across the region, storm systems will “flirt” with the area from time to time. Accordingly, we expect unsettled conditions not only for the 2nd half of the work week, but continuing into the Indy 500/ Memorial Day weekend. It certainly won’t rain and storm the entire time, but the threat for a passing storm at any time will be high.

More in the morning around the pattern evolution into early-June, but we continue to believe the MJO will have it’s say and that things will transition towards an eastern trough as we put a wrap on May and open June.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/05/19/stormy-evening-is-replaced-with-cooler-and-drier-air-looking-ahead-to-the-busy-weekend-on-deck/

VIDEO: Hot Saturday Gives Way To Sunday Storms; Pattern Changes Ahead For Early-June…

A sunny, but hot Saturday is on deck before we introduce strong thunderstorms into the picture for the second half of the weekend. We also look ahead to the pattern…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/05/18/video-hot-saturday-gives-way-to-sunday-storms-pattern-changes-ahead-for-early-june/

Sudden “Stick And Hold” Summer? Think Again…

The upcoming couple of weeks sure will feel like summer has arrived. After “pulling teeth” to get any sort of sustained warmth, the flip to warm/ hot and humid conditions is upon us.

This kind of pattern will keep heaviest rain to our northwest, but that’s not to say we won’t deal with storm complexes from time to time that will be plenty capable of depositing a quick hefty amount of water in a short period (case in point yesterday evening).

As we look ahead, the MJO continues to look like it’ll roll right into Phase 1 as we get set to close May and open June. This should ultimately mean the eastern ridge is replaced with more troughiness (may be tough to erode the southeastern ridge- where anomalous heat will likely continue for the foreseeable future) and an associated cooler pattern as we move towards early-June across our region.

As this transition takes shape, the heaviest precipitation totals will likely shift east, including more of our immediate region, as we progress through late-May and into early June. The modeling sees this taking shape nicely.

Though we’ll likely back away from the anomalous warmth and replace things will cooler air as we move into the half-way point of the year, the same ole song and dance is expected from a precipitation perspective: wetter than average, and, at times, excessively so…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/05/17/sudden-stick-and-hold-summer-think-again/

Evening Long Range Video Update…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/05/16/evening-long-range-video-update/

Short-Term Update: Keeping An Eye On Severe Potential This Evening-Tonight…

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 7p.


Greatest concern has to do with the Southwest flank of the thunderstorm complex that will continue to push southeast into the evening hours. (This is the same complex of storms that moved through MN and WI earlier this morning).

As we look at the ingredients needed for severe weather, there’s reason to believe this complex will hold together, including occasionally producing severe weather (large hail and damaging winds remain the biggest concerns) into portions of central Indiana by early to mid evening (5p-8p time frame).

This shouldn’t have any impact on another, more widespread, complex of storms that will initiate well to our north late tonight before rumbling south into central Indiana around, or just after, midnight in a weakening state…

More later!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/05/16/short-term-update-keeping-an-eye-on-severe-potential-this-evening-tonight/

VIDEO: Humid Air Inbound; Storms Flare Up Later Today For Some…

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VIDEO: Short-Term Storm Update; Fresh Thoughts On The Late May Pattern…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/05/15/video-short-term-storm-update-fresh-thoughts-on-the-late-may-pattern/

VIDEO: Here Comes That Summer-Like Feel; Timing Out Storm Chances Into Next Week…

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Watching From Afar: Summer-Like Warmth, But Heaviest Rain/ Severe Threat Remains NW Of Immediate Region…

An expanding upper level ridge will drive the warmest air so far this season into the Ohio Valley, including central Indiana, as we get set to close the work week and head into next week.

This will not only deliver mid to upper 80s, but the first truly “oppressive” feel of the season as moist Gulf of Mexico air flows northward into the Ohio Valley. At times, dew points will approach the 70 degree mark.

Though the pattern will turn warm and humid, the worst of the heavy rain events are expected to remain to our west-northwest. (Unfortunately, this pattern is one that will lead to a multi-day severe weather and eventual flood threat for the Plains into the upper Midwest).

That isn’t to say we won’t see rain and storms at times (most numerous Thursday night across northern and east-central Indiana, Sunday afternoon across all of the state, and again Tuesday), but instead the most concentrated heavy rain and severe potential will be focused from OK, MO, IA, and into MN and WI over the upcoming 7-day period. Instead of us looking at widespread 2″ to 4″ totals, we’re instead looking at 7-day rainfall amounts around an inch, with locally heavier amounts.

From a severe perspective, similar to the heavy rain events, this, too, is expected to remain to our west for the better part of the upcoming 7-day period. While storm chasers coverage on the Plains this weekend into next week, we’ll, thankfully, be watching the bulk of the action from afar for the better part of the period.

Days 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook, courtesy of the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), can be found below:

Friday’s Severe Weather Outlook
Saturday’s Severe Weather Outlook
Sunday’s Severe Weather Outlook
Monday’s Severe Weather Outlook
Next Tuesday’s Severe Weather Outlook

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/05/14/watching-from-afar-summer-like-warmth-but-heaviest-rain-severe-threat-remains-nw-of-immediate-region/

VIDEO: Summer-Like Feel Develops; Talking Storm Chances In The Days Ahead…

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