Feb 28
Here’s our latest thinking around this weekend’s winter storm and a long range update through the month of March…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/28/video-updated-thoughts-around-this-weekends-winter-storm-and-the-pattern-through-march/
Feb 28
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/28/client-video-on-wintry-potential-later-today-across-portions-of-central-in/
Feb 28
The updated JMA Weeklies are in and we wanted to take a moment to review those with you this morning. A more extensive long range post will arrive tonight. In addition, we’ll also have an updated video discussion around the potential (and increasing likelihood) of a winter storm this weekend later this evening.
Week 1
In agreement with the majority of the other data, the model overwhelms the pattern with unseasonably cold air. Note the anomalous pattern, including strong AK ridge that is helping “dislodge” the late season arctic air. The other item that stands out? The southeast ridge is no longer (for now).
Week 2
Cold is forecast to linger in the Week 2 timeframe, but it’s beginning to modify from the early month bitter shot. Secondly, the high latitude pattern has completely reversed from Week 1 (note the lower heights) and the southeast ridge is showing signs of re-emerging.
Weeks 3-4
Eastern ridging is shown during the mid to late month stretch and gives further reason to believe our mid month warm-up idea has merit. With this, the model also delivers an overall wetter pattern for the 2nd half of the month.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/28/reviewing-the-new-jma-weeklies-do-we-pull-out-of-the-unseasonably-cold-pattern-later-in-march/
Feb 27
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/27/wednesday-evening-video-update-on-the-upcoming-weekend-winter-storm/
Feb 27
Is a weekend winter storm brewing?
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/27/all-access-video-model-differences-on-potential-weekend-winter-storm/
Feb 26
Now that everyone is aboard the cold train through the 1st half of March, it’s time to turn our attention to other things and that’s the chance(s) of meaningful late season snow.
Before we talk about snow prospects, it’s important to know the magnitude of this cold. On the table is a period with multiple single digit days and highs in the lower to middle 20s- and those numbers will turn even colder if we can get a snowpack down. “Frigid” doesn’t begin to describe things- especially considering the average high is in the middle 40s and the average low is around 30 during the first week of March.
While we’re highly confident on the bitterly cold feel as we open meteorological winter, opportunities for snow are still fuzzy. There’s certainly a lot of potential in this pattern over the next couple of weeks, but honing in on the specifics are more of a challenge as the pattern transition gets underway.
With all of that said, Saturday continues to look like the best shot at accumulating snow potential in the near term as a coast-to-coast storm system travels across the country. As things stand today, this appears to be an I-40 to I-70 special from the Plains into the Ohio Valley before trending northeast towards the I-80 corridor in the Northeast. We caution, it’s far too early for specifics here.
Here’s a “ridiculously” early call of where we think the greatest chance of accumulating snow will lie Friday through Sunday.
Thereafter, a bitterly cold week is ahead before our attention will turn to the threat of another storm “attacking” the cold by the middle to latter part of next week (3/6 through 3/9 time frame)…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/26/colds-a-given-what-about-snow/
Feb 26
Discussing the reasons behind the frigid open to March and the mid-month changes that await…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/26/all-access-video-looking-deeper-into-the-reasons-to-the-cold-open-to-march-mid-month-changes/
Feb 25
Average temperatures through the 1st (5) days of the month include highs of 46 F and a low of 29 F at Indianapolis. Instead, a frigid pattern will grip the region as we move through early March, including highs that will likely only top out in the lower to middle 20s and lows in the upper single digits to lower 10s as we move through the first week of the month (coldest centered on Sunday through next Wednesday).
Should we get any sort of snow down during the period (still up for debate as of this evening), lows will likely approach 0 F. The best opportunity for accumulating snow over the upcoming week would come Friday night into Saturday, but confidence remains low. Thereafter, we prefer the “suppressed” ideas currently portrayed by modeling as more meaningful winter storm threats impact the lower Ohio/ TN Valley and southern Appalachian region- especially with such an anomalously cold pattern in place.
Speaking of cold, the deep and expansive snowpack across the central and northern Plains won’t allow the late season taste from the arctic to modify as much as it may otherwise. As the frigid air mass settles southeast, below zero wind chill values are a good bet early next week across the northern half of the state. “Tap the breaks” on meteorological winter kicking off March 1st…
With that said, the NAO and AO are expected to remain positive and while initially “trumped” by the significantly negative EPO, this will trend positive by mid-month. These all suggest the cold is limited and that there shouldn’t be any change to the idea that we really begin to feel more spring-like by the middle of March. This is backed up by the continued idea that the MJO rumbles into Phase 4 by mid-March, as well (again argues for warmth).
Sure enough, longer range models show the ridging and associated warmer times ahead:
It should be noted that with the mean trough position taking up shop across the western portion of the country mid-March, not only should we moderate, but we should also see a return of wetter/ stormier times. With the GOM (Gulf of Mexico) running above normal, early season severe weather outbreaks will have to be closely monitored…
The new European Weeklies in this evening also back up the idea of an unseasonably cold 1st half of the month giving way to milder conditions by mid month. The model paints a drier than normal pattern over the Ohio Valley and Mid West over the next couple of weeks before wetter signals return by the middle of March.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/25/frigid-open-to-march-and-late-month-musings-reviewing-the-new-european-weeklies/
Feb 25
The potential of another high wind event this weekend is on the table and we look ahead to a much colder than average open to March…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/25/all-access-video-does-another-high-wind-event-loom-this-weekend/
Feb 24
Top wind gusts today have reached 66 MPH at IND with numerous reports of downed trees and power lines throughout the northern half of Indiana.
As we look ahead through the upcoming week, a couple of rather minor systems may deal light precipitation to the area, but it’s what lies ahead next weekend that’s already drawing interest. Unfortunately, modeling is trying it’s best for a “repeat” high wind event next Saturday.
The overall setup is eerily similar as a rapidly strengthening surface low tracks northeast into the Great Lakes region. This setup would once again support 50+ MPH gusts.
With the pattern change underway at this point, colder air will be more readily available and backside snow may be more “meaningful” next weekend. That’s something we’ll be keeping a close eye on.
Winter weather enthusiasts will have a couple of weeks of at least being on the playing field for the possibility of late season accumulating snow, but it continues to look like that window closes quickly by mid-March as a true spring pattern takes hold.
For those who watch the operational data with each and every update (sometimes as much as 4 times per day)- tread with caution. While significant late season winter storms can result from such a pattern change that’s underway, it’s impossible to worry about specifics in this type of regime until within 4-6 days.
It would appear the pattern would support potential “fun and games” next Saturday, the 2nd, and possibly again in the March 5th-6th time frame.
Enjoy it while you have it, lovers of winter… Signals continue to point towards a significant shift to warmer times for the 2nd half of March.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/24/potential-wintry-mischief-through-early-march-late-month-changes/