February 2019 archive

All-Access Client Brief: Plowable Snow Moves In Overnight…

Brief: Heavy Snow & Sleet

Forecaster: McMillan

What: Heavy Snow & Sleet

When: 12a to 8a Wednesday

Temperatures: Upper 20s to lower 30s

Wind: E 15-25 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Moderate before mixing with sleet

The setup remains the same as a warm front lifts north during the overnight. Copious amounts of moisture will arrive into central Indiana and with cold air in place, a period of moderate to heavy snow will develop. Timing into the city, itself, should come around, or just before, midnight. While the snow will be of the heavy, wet variety, gusty easterly winds will result in blowing and drifting snow (especially on north-south roadways) before precipitation transitions to sleet. We’ve “beefed” our accumulation forecast up to include a 3″ to 5″ band across east-central Indiana, including Indianapolis, as short-term guidance is indicating a period of significant “forcing” (or lift in the atmosphere) that will lead to heavy snowfall rates before the transition to sleet. A couple of hours with snowfall rates in excess of 1″ per hour will likely be observed in that 1a to 3a window. Precipitation will transition to sleet and a period of freezing rain between 3a and 5a from south to north, before turning to all rain in the city before sunrise. Further north, a transition to rain won’t be noticed until after 8a, but the majority of precipitation will likely be over with by that point (just lingering drizzle and fog).

Confidence: High

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/19/all-access-client-brief-plowable-snow-moves-in-overnight/

Tuesday Morning Video Update: From Snow To Storms And Looking Ahead To March…

A “thump” of sleet and snow will give way to strong storm potential Saturday. Looking ahead, winter appears to make a comeback during the 1st half of March…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/19/tuesday-morning-video-update-from-snow-to-storms-and-looking-ahead-to-march/

Impactful Snow/ Ice Event Gives Way To Strong Storm Potential…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/18/impactful-snow-ice-event-gives-way-to-strong-storm-potential/

All-Access Client Brief: “Thump” Of Snow; Sleet Makes Things Slick Tuesday Night-Wednesday Morning…

Brief: Accumulating Snow & Sleet

Forecaster: McMillan

What: Accumulating snow and sleet

When: 9p Tuesday through 8a Wednesday

Temperatures: Upper 20s to lower 30s

Wind: E 15-25 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Moderate (before the snow changes to sleet).

A warm front will lift north Tuesday night. Copious amounts of moisture will push into southern Indiana Tuesday evening before arriving into the city, itself, around or just before the 10p to 11p timeframe. Initially, the air mass will be cold enough to allow all precipitation to fall in the form of snow, however, as warmer air aloft arrives, snow will transition to sleet and possibly freezing rain during the overnight period. Before the transition to sleet takes place, a quick 1″ to 3″ of snow is possible across central Indiana. Surface temperatures are expected to creep just past the freezing mark around the 7a to 8a timeframe- allowing all precipitation to transition to rain. With several hours of frozen/ freezing precipitation expected during the overnight, slick travel is expected to develop.

Confidence: Medium-high

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/18/all-access-client-brief-thump-of-snow-sleet-makes-things-slick-tuesday-night-wednesday-morning/

Monday Morning Video Update: Accumulating Snow Tuesday Night To Weekend Storm Potential…

Light snow showers will continue today, but attention is on the potential of a “thump” of snow tomorrow night into early Wednesday morning. Thereafter, another big storm is set to…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/18/monday-morning-video-update-accumulating-snow-tuesday-night-to-weekend-storm-potential/

Sunday Morning Video Update…

A wintry mix this morning sets the stage for another active week of weather across central Indiana. We also look forward to late Feb and early March…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/17/sunday-morning-video-update-3/

Burst Of Snow Transitions To Sleet & Freezing Rain Before Ending…

A burst of snow will move across central Indiana during the predawn hours (a few hours earlier than guidance suggested). Precipitation will become more widespread late morning into the early afternoon hours and as milder air aloft arrives on the scene, light snow will transition to sleet and freezing rain before ending. Further north (Kokomo to Ft. Wayne), precipitation is expected to remain all snow where 1”-3” will fall today before ending. Highs will top out around the freezing mark later this afternoon before falling into the middle 20s tonight. A few slick spots may develop on area roadways.

Much more later this morning on the week ahead and what looms further down the road as we wrap up the month.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/17/burst-of-snow-transitions-to-sleet-freezing-rain-before-ending/

All-Access Saturday Evening Video Update…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/16/all-access-saturday-evening-video-update/

2019 Spring Outlook…

2019 IndyWx.com Spring Outlook

Forecaster: Team; Date Issued: 02.16.19

Last spring was a tale of two seasons in itself. March (featured a foot of snow) and April were significantly colder than normal and then we shifted things to summer in May (the last month of meteorological spring was close to 10 degrees above normal). As a whole, it was a quiet severe weather season.

Despite the wild swings, at the end of the day, things “balanced out” nicely across the central Ohio Valley, including central Indiana.

As we look ahead to what the 2019 version holds, here are a few headlines that have our attention:

I. Weak Nino is behaving more like a Nina (Tropical Northern Hemisphere pattern can be thanked for this).

II. Neutral NAO is expected

III. Neutral PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation)

In addition, we’re paying special attention to the SST configuration in the Gulf of Mexico. A warmer than average GOM can most certainly lead to a more “hyper” severe weather season as spring gets going.

The late winter/ early spring drought monitor can give a hint where early warmth may try and get going. However, this year, we can’t rely on this tool as the Plains and East, including the heart of the #AGbelt, have seen copious amounts of moisture over the winter.

Drought Monitor as of 2/14/19
December 2018 Precipitation Anomalies
January 2019 Precipitation Anomalies

Let’s look at what the model guidance is printing out for meteorological spring:

JMA

March
April
May

CFSv2

JAMSTEC

European Seasonal

Summary

We anticipate a slightly warmer than average spring season across not only central Indiana, but the Mid West and Ohio Valley region, as a whole. A weak El Nino is expected to persist into the upcoming summer and the conditions typically associated with such should eventually show themselves (as opposed to more of a Nina-like flavor now) through the spring. We agree with the consensus of model guidance above that March is likely to feature the coldest temperatures, relative to normal, and that’s primarily due to what should be a colder 1st half of the month before more bonafide spring conditions take hold the 2nd half of the month. Precipitation is anticipated to run near average, if not slightly below average, levels through the spring. As for severe weather, we expect a much busier season than last year, especially with the warm SSTs lurking in the Gulf of Mexico.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/16/2019-spring-outlook/

All-Access Client Brief: Wintry Close To The Weekend…

Brief: Accumulating snow

Forecaster: McMillan

What: Accumulating snow

When: Sunday morning into the evening

Temperatures: Upper 20s to lower 30s

Wind: E 10-20 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal 

We’re heading into the 2nd consecutive weekend with a snowy close across at least portions of central Indiana- especially along and north of I-70. Upper level energy will get snow going during the predawn hours Sunday before potentially a more significant period of snow takes hold late morning into the afternoon. This is thanks to a surface wave moving northeast along the OH River eventually into western PA. We believe just north of the surface low a stripe of snow (potentially to the tune of 3″ to 5″) will develop from east-central IN into OH and on into central PA. We’ll have to fine tune this as we progress into the weekend. Please stay tuned.

Confidence: Medium

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/15/all-access-client-brief-wintry-close-to-the-weekend/

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