An expansive upper level ridge will keep many across the eastern half of the country very hot and humid over the upcoming week. The worst of this particular heat wave, relative to average, will center itself over the Great Lakes and Northeast.
More specific to central Indiana, daily highs in the lower to middle 90s and overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s will continue into late next week. For the most part, this is a dry pattern, as well, BUT there will be a few exceptions.
The first of such arrives Sunday evening into Sunday night with the potential of a line of showers and thunderstorms rumbling into the state. We note high resolution models weaken this line of storms as it arrives into central Indiana (likely after dark Sunday), but we’ll keep an eye on things. As things stand now, the western half of the state stands the greatest risk of getting meaningful rain Sunday evening.
Thereafter, additional isolated to widely scattered storm coverage is possible- primarily during the afternoon and evening hours, but more than not will remain rain-free. 7-day precipitation totals check in this morning in the 0.25″ to 0.75″ range.
In the longer range, we should begin to see a transition to “less hot” 🙂 conditions next weekend followed by a more significant pattern change for the second half of July as the upper level ridge retrogrades west, centering itself over the Rocky Mountain region.
Not only will this likely lead to a cooler second half of July, but should also offer up an increasingly active and wetter northwesterly flow for our immediate region.
Week 2
Weeks 3-4
With the hot dome centered over the Ohio Valley, it’ll really help to limit shower and thunderstorm chances. That’s not to say isolated coverage of cooling thunderstorms won’t occur on occasion during the afternoon and evening, but widespread rain of significance won’t be around during the period. Thankfully, the recent wet pattern and additional storm complexes coming in Tuesday into Wednesday have and will help surface moisture levels. Had we not seen the recent wet shift over the past couple weeks, you could easily tack on an additional 3° to 5°…
Sunshine will increase for the second half of the weekend and highs will respond- mid 80s after a refreshing start Sunday morning.
While it’ll certainly turn more humid through midweek, the rain and storms will keep temperatures at seasonable levels. All of that changes once to Thursday and Friday as a building ridge of high pressure expands across the Ohio Valley.
This will limit rain chances and potentially offer up the hottest air of the summer. We expect 5-6 days of low-mid 90s for highs and oppressive overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s.
Thankfully, the hot dome will retrograde west and lead to “less hot” and increasingly stormy conditions after the first week of July. An active northwest flow pattern will take hold and provide an active time of things during this period.
The end result would be anomalous heat and a drier pattern, as a whole, as we transition through the early stages of July. Heat to the magnitude of what we experienced last weekend isn’t off the table with such a similar pattern.
Looking ahead, thankfully, one of our more trusted longer range computer models (JMA Weeklies), shows the pattern relaxing as we move into mid-July. The model shows the heat backing west and a more active northwest flow (wetter pattern) returning here…