May 2018 archive

Storms Rumble In This Evening; Warm Open To Meteorological Summer…

A stalled frontal boundary remains draped across the Ohio Valley this morning.  We note ongoing showers across northern Indiana and Illinois, along with considerable cloudiness in association with the front.  Also of interest is the disturbed weather off the FL peninsula this morning.  Models differ on the evolution of things, but both the GFS and European model suggest we may have a tropical depression or weak tropical storm on our hands by the Memorial Day weekend.  Is it more of a threat to the central Gulf Coast region, such as the European implies, or more of a Carolina event?  It’s simply too early to know, but it’ll be fun to watch things play out this week.

Back here on the home front, a quiet start to our Monday will turn stormy at times this evening as the front nears.  We think best coverage of showers and thunderstorms will come between 5p and 10p.  There will be some winners and losers when it comes to rainfall amounts by midnight.  Some can expect over an inch in the stronger storms while others may only see a tenth of an inch, or so.  Something that must be taken into forecasts moving forward is the tendency of most model data (high resolution and global data alike) to “over forecast” rainfall amounts as of late.  Also of note is for the potential of a couple of strong to severe storms to develop this evening.  We always have to be wary of fronts draped across central Indiana as they’ve been known to help tornadic activity spin up.  We’ve lost count of how many slight risk days with warm fronts nearby that turn busy…  If you’re planning to be outdoors this evening, please have a means of receiving the latest watches and potential warnings that may be issued.

High pressure will build in for the midweek period and supply plentiful sunshine along with continued warmer than average conditions.  Overnight lows will fall into the upper 50s (couple of degrees above average) with the drier air mass in place, but afternoon highs will continue to climb into the lower and middle 80s (around 10 degrees above average).

Good news this morning for all of the Race Day and Memorial Day weekend activities is that forecast models are backing off (seeing a common theme?) on the magnitude and overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms associated with our next system.  While we’ll maintain widely scattered thunderstorms in our Saturday-Monday forecast, much more of the time period will be free of any rain and storm activity.

Longer term, thoughts are shifting towards the open to meteorological summer (where is this year going?!).  The GFS ensemble suggests the overall warm pattern remains intact as we open a new season with widespread warmth expected through the first few days of the June.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/21/storms-rumble-in-this-evening-warm-open-to-meteorological-summer/

Unsettled Open To The Week And Looking Towards Next Weekend…

As we type this Sunday evening a few strong storms have developed across east-central Indiana.  If your travels take you east this evening, a couple of these storms have been producing large hail and strong winds.

Otherwise, a stalled frontal boundary remains draped across the Ohio Valley and will serve as the focal point for additional shower and thunderstorm development through the early stages of the week.  Rainfall coverage will likely be most widespread Monday, and come in a couple waves: Monday morning into early afternoon and again Monday evening.

By the time all is said and done late Monday night and early Tuesday, expect widespread rainfall totals between 0.50″ and 1″ with locally heavier amounts where the stronger storms track.

High pressure will build into the region through the midweek stretch and result in increasingly sunny and pleasant conditions.  With a drier air mass in place, overnight lows will fall into the 50s through the midweek period.

Our attention will then shift to the threat of active times for the Memorial Day weekend, including the 102nd running of the Indianapolis 500.  After a mostly dry Friday, shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase Friday night through the weekend, continuing into early Monday as of now.  While it won’t rain the entire time, it might be a good idea to have a “plan B” in mind at times for the busy upcoming weekend.  Models like the idea of a rather significant, albeit likely brief, cool down to close the month…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/20/unsettled-open-to-the-week-and-looking-towards-next-weekend/

Timing Out Weekend Rain And Storms; Looking Towards Memorial Day Weekend…

Scattered showers and a couple of rumbles of thunder will be most numerous this morning into the early-mid afternoon hours before briefly drier conditions build in this evening.

Our attention will then shift to the potential of strong thunderstorms late Sunday.  Higher resolution guidance suggests storms will begin to rumble into western Indiana late Sunday evening (around 9p to 10p) before tracking east into the overnight hours.

With a stalled front nearby, shower and thunderstorm chances will remain in our forecast into the middle of the week.  While it won’t rain the entire time, unsettled conditions will remain into Wednesday before high pressure provides drier conditions Thursday and most of Friday.

Thinking as of now is that a new storm system will approach next weekend, which would deliver a return of unsettled weather late Friday, continuing through the all-important Memorial Day and Indy 500 weekend.  We obviously still have plenty of time to watch things unfold over the upcoming week and will get more specific as time grows closer.

A new storm system could result in an unsettled Memorial Day weekend around these parts.

From a temperature perspective, the upcoming 6-10 days will run well above average, maintaining the warm May theme.  Looking out further, there’s the possibility that the last couple of days of the month could trend cooler behind the Memorial Day weekend storm.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/19/timing-out-weekend-rain-and-storms-looking-towards-memorial-day-weekend/

More Unsettled Weekend Ahead And Closing Out May…

An upper level low pressure system will track northeast today into tonight, and as it does, look for more numerous showers and embedded thunder to develop.  Some localized heavier downpours are a good bet this evening across central Indiana.

Otherwise, look for considerable cloudiness and highs topping out in the lower 70s today.

While we’ll have to contend with a few showers Saturday, overall, the day should be drier compared to today and what lies ahead Sunday.  Speaking of Sunday, we’re monitoring the potential of a couple of storms reaching strong to severe levels to close the weekend.  The Storm Prediction Center includes central portions of the state in a “marginal” risk of severe with their update Friday morning.  It wouldn’t surprise us if a portion of the marginal risk is upgraded to a “slight” risk in future updates.  We’ll fine tune storm timing over the next 24 hours.

As we look ahead to the end of May, there really aren’t any significant changes to the overall warmer than normal theme we’ve enjoyed so far this month.  Longer range guidance off of the European ensemble continues to support broad scale upper ridging across the Mid West and Ohio Valley and a corresponding warmer than average regime.  From a precipitation perspective, the next couple of weeks do look more active compared to the dry start to the month.  Case in point, the balance of the upcoming week will be dominated by a stalled frontal boundary.  While we’ll have to fine tune exactly where the front stalls, daily chances of showers and thunderstorms (scattered fashion) can be expected.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/18/more-unsettled-weekend-ahead-and-closing-out-may/

VIDEO: More Active Times Await…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/16/video-more-active-times-await/

Wednesday Morning Rambles…

1.) A narrow, but persistent band of downpours continues to fall just south of the metro this morning.  Places from Martinsville to Trafalgar and Shelbyville are enjoying needed rain this morning.

2.) Overall, a drier air mass will build into central Indiana today and Thursday (cooler, too) before moisture returns to close the week.  Scattered showers and embedded thunder are more likely Friday and again late Sunday into Monday.

3.)  Looking ahead, we notice a more active pattern is presented off the overnight GEFS model.  The heat ridge backs west and sets up a busy “ring of fire” pattern with a northwest flow aloft across our region.  We have a ways to go before developing consistency and overall confidence, but this is at least an encouraging sign.  The end result, should this come to fruition, would be a significantly wetter open to June.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/16/wednesday-morning-rambles-8/

VIDEO: Better Coverage Of Showers And Storms This Evening; Looking Ahead Into Early Next Week…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/15/video-better-coverage-of-showers-and-storms-this-evening-looking-ahead-into-early-next-week/

VIDEO: Record Warmth And Turning Humid, Too…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/14/video-record-warmth-and-turning-humid-too/

Still Warm, But Much More Active…

So far, May-to-date has run well above average in the temperature department (+8.5°) and below average from a precipitation perspective.  While we’ll continue to run much warmer than normal through the second half of the month, we’ll begin to make up for “lost time” in the rainfall department, and that starts this week.

Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms are included in your latest 7-day and, at times, storm complexes will likely reach strong to severe levels as disturbances ride the periphery of an upper level ridge off to our south.  It certainly won’t rain the entire time over the upcoming week and we’ll still enjoy more dry hours than wet and stormy.  That said, for a region running around 1.5″ below average, the more active times will be a welcome sight for many.  By next Sunday, we expect many area rain gauges to accumulate 1.5″ to 2.5″ of rain with locally heavier amounts.

Warmth will continue to dominate through the next couple of weeks.

For a change, above normal precipitation is expected over the upcoming week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/13/still-warm-but-much-more-active/

VIDEO: A More Active Pattern Awaits…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/12/video-a-more-active-pattern-awaits/

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